US Presidential popularity and opportunities to coerce North Korea: a quantitative test 1990 2000

This paper investigates how North Korean behaviour towards boththe United States and South Korea is influenced by the popularityof the American President. The study applies theories relatingto strategic conflict avoidance and signalling to suggest thatthe American President is able to demonstrate a willingnessto use force when he is unpopular and as such is better ableto coerce Pyongyang. Using a time-series model, I demonstratethat the North Koreans become more cooperative towards the UnitedStates in response to decreases in presidential popularity andincreasing levels of US inflation. However, the study also showsthat the North Koreans do not alter their behaviour towardsthe South Koreans in response to low American President Popularityratings. The research, therefore, suggests that the North Koreansbelieve that the United States would be unable to launch a diversionaryattack in response to North Korean behaviour towards the South.This study provides a clear support for the strategic avoidanceof conflict hypothesis and suggests that the American Presidentsare best able to coerce North Korea when they are unpopularat home. Received for publication August 31, 2005. Accepted for publication December 21, 2005.     

THE BOOKSHELF

Books reviewed in this article:
G. Andrew Benjamin and Jackie Gollan, Family Evaluation in Custody Litigation: Reducing Risks of Ethical Infractions and Malpractice .     

Spatial variation of refractive index in a pane of float glass.

In the statistical interpretation of forensic glass evidence it is standard practice to make the assumption of homogeneity of the refractive index (RI) of the source glass, or of localized homogeneity. However, the work of Locke and Hayes showed that, for toughened windscreen glass, this assumption might not be true. This work is well cited, but there appears to have been little follow-on published research. Furthermore, the toughening process is something known to affect the refractive index, and is a process that float glass does not undergo. Float glass is a major component of casework in New Zealand and for that reason it would be interesting to know whether the findings of Locke and Hayes apply when dealing with float glass. In this paper we describe an experiment similar to that of Locke and Hayes, systematically examining the variation of RI in a pane of float window glass. It was found that, although there were no systematic differences in refractive index, there were observable differences across the pane.     

Uncovered bones on the Baltic Sea beach--human or animal?]

Report of an unusual finding of bones on the shore of the Baltic Sea. Although the morphological findings appeared similar to a human foot skeleton, a quick identification as sea dog bone was possible.     

A statistical approach to drug sampling: a case study.

In many countries it is left to the discretion of the court to accept or reject conclusions based on sampling procedures as applied to the total drug exhibit. As an alternative to this subjective approach, a statistical basis is presented using binomial and hypergeometric distributions to determine a lower limit for the proportion of units in a population which contains a drug, at a given confidence level. A method for calculating the total weight of a drug present in a population within a given confidence interval is also presented. In the event of no failures (all units sampled contain a drug), a sample size of six or seven units is generally sufficient to state that a proportion of at least 0.70 of the population contains a drug at a confidence level of at least 90%. When failures do occur in the sample, point estimation is used as the basis for selecting the appropriate sample size.     

A case of sudden infant death due to massive hemorrhage in primitive neuroectodermal tumor.

A case of the sudden death of a 14-month-old girl due to massive hemorrhage in a primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET) is presented along with a review of the relevant literature. PNET is a rare, malignant brain neoplasm occurring predominantly in children.     

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ alpha oligonucleotide typing on biological evidence samples: casework experience.

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method of specific gene amplification was used in casework to synthesize millions of copies of the polymorphic second exon of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ alpha (or DQA1) locus from a variety of evidence samples. The HLA-DQ alpha allelic variants in the amplified deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) were determined in a rapid non-radioactive test by hybridization to sequence-specific oligonucleotide probes in both the dot-blot and reverse dot-blot formats. This genetic typing system has been subjected to blind proficiency testing; the performance of this test in the analysis of experimentally mixed samples was also evaluated. As of August 1990, over 250 cases have been tested and more than 2000 individual evidence (bloodstains, semen stains, individual hairs, bone fragments, and tissue sections) and reference samples have been analyzed. The first 198 of these cases are summarized in this paper; in 65% of the cases with conclusive results a suspect was included, and in 35%, all suspects were excluded. Individual cases as well as some of the general issues relating to forensic science analysis and this genetic typing system are discussed. The high rate of exclusion reported here combined with the ability of PCR to type old evidence samples suggests the relevance of this genetic test for postconviction review; two cases in which the convicted suspect was excluded are discussed.     

An improved method for complement subcomponent C1R typing

An improved method has been developed for the reliable classification of different C1R genetic variant forms from human serum or plasma. The method combines the use of neuraminidase-digested samples followed by monodimensional isoelectric focusing in the pH range 5 to 8 followed by immunoblotting. The method yields a simple pattern, with one major band in homozygote and two major bands in heterozygote cases.     

G3M T typing by dot immunobinding with monoclonal anti-G3M T antibody

Dilutions of 100 serum samples of various GM phenotypes were dotted onto a nitrocellulose membrane. The serum dot-blots were detected with peroxidase-labeled anti-G3M T monoclonal antibody (anti-G3M T MAb). Up to a 1 : 256 dilution could be G3M T-typed correctly. By use of anti-G3M T MAb and peroxidase-labeled anti-mouse IgG or the biotin-avidin system instead of use of labeled anti-G3M T MAb, up to a 1 : 512 or 1 : 1024, respectively, dilution was typable. As with previous work with G3M G MAb, the dot immunobinding (DIB) method for G3M T typing was found very simple and practical.