Multiparty electoral competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A model based on multinomial probit

A typical assumption of electoral models of party competition is that parties adopt policy positions so as to maximize expected vote share. Here we use Euro-barometer survey data and European elite-study data from 1979 for the Netherlands and Germany to construct a stochastic model of voter response, based on multinomial probit estimation. For each of these countries, we estimate a pure spatial electoral voting model and a joint spatial model. The latter model also includes individual voter and demographic characteristics. The pure spatial models for the two countries quite accurately described the electoral response as a stochastic function of party positions. We use these models to perform a thought experiment so as to estimate the expected vote maximizing party positions. We go on to propose a model of internal party decision-making based both on pre-election electoral estimation and post-election coalition bargaining. This model suggests why the various parties in the period in question did not adopt vote maximizing positions. We argue that maximizing expected vote will not, in general, be a rational party strategy in multiparty political systems which are based on proportional representation.     

MAINTAINING A UNITARY STATE: COUNTER-TERRORISM,SEPARATISM, AND EXTREMISM IN XINJIANG AND CHINA

This essay reviews the history of Uighur related terrorism in Xinjiang as well as elsewhere in China and discusses the political motivations and effectiveness of the Chinese government in suppressing terrorism. The essay assesses both the motivations of the Uighurs engaged in terrorism, as well as the motivations for counter terrorist by the Chinese authorities. A key objective of the essay is to determine what are the political and other reasons that drive the Chinese government’s counter terrorism strategy and tactics and whether these have been effective or counter-productive. The essay assesses the counter terrorism strategy of the Chinese government in Xinjiang Province and across China, the political motivations for the strategy, the impact and success or otherwise. The essay discusses if the government is combatting terrorism, or separatism, or extremism, the confusion of these terms, and whether this has had any impact on the effectiveness of counter terrorism.     

Human Capital and Administrative Burden: The Role of Cognitive Resources in Citizen-State Interactions

One means by which the state reinforces inequality is by imposing administrative burdens that loom larger for citizens with lower levels of human capital. Integrating insights from various disciplines, this article focuses on one aspect of human capital: cognitive resources. The authors outline a model that explains how burdens and cognitive resources, especially executive functioning, interrelate. The article then presents illustrative examples, highlighting three common life factors—scarcity, health problems, and age-related cognitive decline. These factors create a human capital catch-22, increasing people's likelihood of needing state assistance while simultaneously undermining the cognitive resources required to negotiate the burdens they encounter while seeking such assistance. The result is to reduce access to state benefits and increase inequality. The article concludes by calling for scholars of behavioral public administration and public administration more generally to incorporate more attention to human capital into their research.     

The association between childhood sexual abuse and sexual coercion in men: a test of possible mediators

ABSTRACT

We examined the associations between childhood sexual abuse (CSA), childhood physical abuse (CPA), sexual domain variables, antisocial tendencies, and sexually coercive behaviour in a non-forensic sample of 173 heterosexual men. CSA was associated with paraphilic interests and experiences, a more extensive sexual life history, and early antisocial tendencies. CPA was associated with paraphilic interests and experiences, more self-reported delinquency, higher sensation seeking, and early antisocial tendencies. Sexual domain variables (e.g. number of sexual partners, sexual interest in sadomasochism) mediated the link between CSA and sexually coercive behaviour, but antisocial domain variables (e.g. delinquency, sensation seeking) did not. Of the two sexual domains examined, extensive sexual life history rather than paraphilias mediated the association between CSA and sexually coercive behaviour. These results suggest CSA and CPA are associated with both sexual and antisocial outcomes, and that, for some victims of CSA, having an extensive sexual life history may account for the association between CSA and sexually coercive behaviour later in life.     

The ‘Sword and Shield of the Party’: how the Vietnamese People’s Public Security Forces portray themselves

This paper shows that since the beginning of the reform period in 1986 the regime in Hanoi has taken great pains to create the image of the state having legitimate and, indeed, heroic security organs that acted as the ‘saviors of the Vietnamese revolution’ and still serve as the ‘shield and sword’ of the Vietnamese Communist Party. I argue that while previously the socialist state used to regard the history of its security organs as top secret, over the last few years, a huge amount of resources have been mobilized to actively propagate a sacred and romanticized image of the security apparatus.