Partisan bias in inflation expectations

Public Choice - We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013...     

From “partnership” to “principled pragmatism”: tracing the discursive practices of the High Representatives in the EU’s relations with the Southern Mediterranean

ABSTRACT

The EU’s relations with countries in the Southern Mediterranean have a long history as the region is of great strategic importance for the Union and its member states. The High Representatives of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy have been highly involved in shaping these relations, and this role has been officially strengthened with institutional changes brought about with the Lisbon Treaty. This article analyses the role of the HR/VPs in shaping the EU's foreign and security policy towards the region with an analytical focus on discursive practice. Drawing on insights from practice theory in IR and EU studies, the analysis traces continuity and change in how the Southern Mediterranean is described in the drafting of key strategic documents. The main finding is that EU foreign and security policy towards the Southern Mediterranean shows a high degree of continuity despite several crises and institutional changes, although the discursive practices have evolved. The article ends by highlighting a conundrum that the EU can be said to implicitly acknowledge: if authoritarian states in the Southern Mediterranean are inherently unstable, yet stable enough to quench the democratic aspirations of their people, then what should be the basis for EU actions?     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION OF TERRORISTS CONFLICTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

This article addresses the issue of transnational terrorism in Southeast Asia. The objective of the article is to investigate the structure of the transnational element of terrorism to determine their impact on conflict resolution attempts in the region. The transnational terrorist organization Jemaah Islamyiah will be used as a single case for the analysis. From this analysis, obstacles toward conflict resolution originating from the structure of transnational terrorism are identified, and the article provides suggestions on how to circumvent these impediments.     

Turning off the Taps: The Termination of State Sponsorship

ABSTRACT

Why do some states terminate their sponsorship of rebel movements while others are persistent in their provision of support? In the past, most research on external support to insurgents has focused on why states choose to sponsor rebel groups and particularly how this affects conflict duration. However, we know little about the termination of such support. This is surprising given that support has been shown to make armed conflicts more intractable and tremendous efforts are made in condemning and sanctioning such behavior. This study constitutes the first large-N analysis of support termination, employing survival analysis on global data of state support to rebel movements between 1975–2009. Surprisingly, the findings indicate that only some of the factors that explain support provision can offer insights into its termination. In particular, support is more likely to be terminated when no ethnic kinship bonds exist between the rebel movement and the government of the supporting state. Many decisions to withdraw support also seem to coincide with the transition from the Cold War. Threats and sanctions from other states appear largely ineffective. The study contributes to our understanding of the international dimensions of civil war and the role and motives of third parties.     

Deploying EU military crisis management operations: a collective action perspective

This article will work towards a multi-level collective action approach for understanding the deployment of Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) military operations. It is multi-level because it uses three levels of analysis: firstly, the international level, where events that create threats to certain values catalyze the process leading to the deployment of an operation; secondly, the national level, where EU governments formulate their national preferences towards prospective deployments based on utility expectations; and thirdly, the EU level, where EU member states negotiate and seek compromises to accommodate their different national preferences. The strength of the model will be demonstrated through empirical case studies on the deployment processes of EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina and EU NAVFOR Atalanta off the coast of Somalia. The article will also provide an overview of the existing theoretical literature on the deployment of CSDP military operations.     

Do laws affect attitudes? An assessment of the Norwegian prostitution law using longitudinal data

The question of whether laws affect attitudes has inspired scholars across many disciplines, but empirical knowledge is sparse. Using longitudinal survey data from Norway and Sweden, collected before and after the implementation of a Norwegian law criminalizing the purchase of sexual services, we assess the short-run effects on attitudes using a difference-in-differences approach. In the general population, the law did not affect moral attitudes toward prostitution. However, in the Norwegian capital, where prostitution was more visible before the reform, the law made people more negative toward buying sex. This supports the claim that proximity and visibility are important factors for the internalization of legal norms.     

Shame on you,John! Laws,stigmatization, and the demand for sex

The present article contributes to the literature on prostitution by shedding light on the effects of the criminalization of buying sex on the amount of prostitution bought, as well as on the proposed theoretical mechanisms underlying this change. We find indications that criminalizing the buying of sex may decrease the quantity of sex bought. While we find that stigma influences the demand for sex, we do not find that stigma increases as a result of the law. Therefore, the possible reduced quantity of sex bought is probably due to the more direct risk of getting caught.     

Islam and democracy

Using the POLITY IV and Freedom House indices, Rowley and Smith (Public Choice 139(3–4):273, 2009) found that countries with Muslim majorities enjoy less freedom and are less democratic than countries in which Muslims are a minority. Because the POLITY IV and Freedom House indices have been criticized on several grounds, I?reinvestigate Rowley and Smith’s finding using the new Democracy-Dictatorship data from Cheibub et?al. (Public Choice 143(1–2):67, 2010). The empirical results confirm that countries with Muslim majorities are indeed less likely to be democratic.     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) Predicts Violent Recidivism Among Criminal Offenders with Personality Disorders in Sweden

Psychopathy as conceptualized with Hare's Psychopathy Checklist Revised, PCL-R, has attracted much research during the 1990s. In the Scandinavian countries, few studies that empirically support the validity of North American risk assessment techniques in our regional context have been published. The purpose of this paper is to explore the predictive power of the PCL-R in a population of personality-disordered violent offenders subjected to forensic psychiatric evaluation in Sweden. Following release from prison (n = 172), discharge from forensic psychiatric treatment (n = 129), or probation (n = 51), a total of 352 individuals were followed for up to 8 years (mean = 3.7 years) with reconviction for violent crime as endpoint variable (base rate 34%). As the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic (AUC of ROC) analysis was calculated. For PCL-R scores to predict 2-year violent recidivism, AUC of ROC was .72 (95% CI: .66–.78). In addition, the personality dimension of psychopathy (Factor 1) and the behavioral component (Factor 2) both predicted 2-year recidivism significantly better than random: AUC of ROC .64 (95% CI: .57–.70) and .71 (95% CI: .65–.77), respectively. We conclude that psychopathy is probably as valid a predictor of violent recidivism in Swedish forensic settings as seen in previous North American studies.     

Regional Cooperation or Competition in Afghanistan: Challenges for the Future

Afghanistan has become synonymous with the spread of fundamentalism (the Taliban),terrorism (al-Qaeda) and rampant opium production.It is rare to hear about any positive developments or about Afghanistan's potential without some sort of caveat.However,while it is true that many problems persist,the situation in Afghanistan has improved in a number of areas.Nevertheless,the situation is still in flux and much needs to be improved,not least in the economic field,before it can be claimed that Afghanistan has truly set itself on a new course.1 In this endeavor there is no doubt that international and-perhaps even more soregional assistance is needed.