Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

The cognitive interview: A meta-analysis

Abstract

A meta-analysis was performed on the effects of the cognitive interview on correct and incorrect recall. The database comprised 42 studies with 55 individual comparisons involving nearly 2500 interviewees. A strong overall effect size was found for the increase of correctly recalled details with the cognitive interview compared to a control interview (d = 0.87). The overall effect size for the increase in incorrect details, although considerably smaller, was also significant toward the cognitive interview (d = 0.28). However, the accuracy rates (proportion of correct details relative to the total amount of details reported) were almost identical in both types of interview (85% for the cognitive interview and 82% for standard interviews, respectively). Taking methodological factors into consideration it was found that effect sizes for correct details were larger if staged events were used as the to-be-remembered episode (as compared to video films) and if the interviewees actively participated in the event. With regard to incorrect details effect sizes were larger for adults as compared to children. Furthermore, the enhanced version of the cognitive interview produced more errors than the original version.     

Ward and Siegert's Pathways Model of child sexual offending: a cluster analysis evaluation

In the Pathways Model of child sexual offending, Ward and Siegert originally hypothesised the existence of five pathways or subtypes of child molesters, each characterised by a unique configuration of psychological deficits. We administered a battery of 10 psychometric measures to a sample of 97 UK child molesters and then attempted to identify and validate five unique configurations using a k-means cluster analysis. The results suggested that a five-cluster resolution provided the best fit for the data. Three of the extracted clusters showed some resemblances to the pathways originally hypothesised by Ward and Siegert (namely the intimacy deficits, antisocial cognition, and multiple dysfunction pathways). However, two clusters did not fit comfortably with any of the predicted pathways proposed by Ward and Siegert. These two clusters were labelled ‘impulsivity’ and ‘boy predators’ to reflect their psychological vulnerabilities. We describe our findings with reference to future research, treatment implications, and a tentative reworking of the pathways model.     

The relationship between schemas and offence supportive attitudes in mentally disordered sexual offenders

Abstract

The study of schemas in sexual offenders is a relatively new approach in attempts to understand the deviant beliefs and attitudes of sexual offenders. Emerging findings suggest that offence supportive attitudes may be the product of an offender's underlying schemas. This study aims to establish the relationship between offence supportive attitudes and schemas in a sample of mentally disordered sexual offenders (MDSOs). Thirty-one male sexual offenders held within low through high security forensic mental health units were assessed using the Young Schema Questionnaire - Short Version 3 and the Questionnaire on Attitudes Consistent with Sex Offending. Correlational analyses suggested a pattern of relationships in which Insufficient Self-control, Entitlement and Enmeshment arose as the schemas associated with most offence supportive attitudes. This supports a relationship between schemas and offence supportive attitudes in MDSOs and is consistent with the literature to date. Implications for further research and treatment are considered.     

Translation,Modernity, and Women in China

The end of the cold war witnessed the emergence of a commercial web sprawling from the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region in western China and extending into Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), Pakistan, and Russia. Running parallel to the state-managed exchange in hydrocarbons, raw materials, technology, and infrastructure, this new Eurasian trade had an informal component as everyday consumer items manufactured in China were imported into neighboring countries, bypassing formal regulatory mechanisms. This inter-Asian trade began as shuttle trading by itinerant merchants for local markets; by the mid 1990s, shuttle trading was overshadowed by largescale export for national markets in neighboring countries without losing its informal character. This informality extending across national boundaries defined the post–cold war commerce in innermost Asia; at the same time, it also signaled a return to pre-cold war trading structures. Moving away from the “retreat of the state” thesis that found traction following the cold war, the author attributes informality in this inter-Asian trade to three factors: (1) a restructuring of state power where informal trade was a new comparative advantage sought in an evolving geopolitical climate; (2) the actors in this inter-Asian trade—party and regional officials in China, along with traders and intermediaries—who found and exercised agency through this exchange; and (3) a chain of inter-locking, commercial macro-regions, which are economically sustainable and which transcended international boundaries. Working in conjunction, these factors constitute a dynamic inter-Asian trade and challenge static state imaginaries of a “New Silk Road” or “Eurasian Continental Bridge.”     

Resistance to Privatization: Why Protest Movements Succeed and Fail in Latin America

Why do some protest movements in Latin America succeed in rolling back privatizations while others fail? This article argues that protests against privatizations have tended to succeed under two conditions. First, privatization's opponents form linkages (or “brokerage”) across multiple sectors of society. Broad coalitions are more likely to achieve their goals, while groups acting alone, such as labor unions, are more easily defeated or ignored by governments. Second, civil rights are protected but political representation is weak. In that case, opponents have the legal right to protest, but are unlikely to have opportunities for communicating their concerns through formal institutions, which prompts them to channel their demands outside of existing political institutions. Using case examples and logistic regression, this study confirms these arguments and discusses the implications for democracy in the region.     

East Timor's Emerging National Security Agenda: Establishing “Real” Independence

Abstract

This article focuses on the steps East Timor has taken to bolster its defense sector following its attainment of independence in 2002. In International Relations, scholars have often argued that the ability to defend territory and population from external threat is an essential component of sovereign statehood. Literature on post-colonial sovereignty, however, suggests that the external sovereignty of “weak” post-colonial states is more likely to be protected through international legal recognition. In recent years, East Timor has sought to develop their defense capacities in line with conventional thinking about security and “real” independence. This influences the foreign relations of East Timor and also has broader implications for understanding security and independence in post-colonial states.     

Women,microfinance, and savings: Lessons and proposals

Microfinance--both credit and savings--has potential to improve the well-being of poor women in developing countries. This paper explores practical ways to achieve that potential. Based on lessons from informal savings mechanisms that women already use, the paper proposes two savings services designed to address the development issues that confront women. The proposals call for safe-deposit boxes and for matched-savings accounts for healthcare or education.