信任:东北亚区域安全合作的关键因素

东北亚安全合作问题是一个老生常谈的话题。冷战结束后,东北亚地区安全问题引起各国政府和专家、学者的关注。但到目前为止,尚未出台为东北亚地区各国所认同和接受的安全机制和安全模式。本文从一个新的视角——信任——出发,认为东北亚地区存在着信任缺失与安全困境,并在此基础上分析了影响信任建立的各种因素以及应采取的措施。     

东南亚地区形势:2008年

在刚刚过去的2007年,东南亚各国经济保持较高速度的增长;展望2008年,虽然有一些困难和不稳定因素,但是,总的而言,仍然是一个好年头.美国经济衰退给世界经济带来许多不确定因素,也给东南亚经济蒙上一层阴影.然而,时过境迁,美国经济虽然是影响东南亚经济的一个重要因素,但已经不是唯一的因素,美国一打喷嚏,东南亚就感冒的年代已经一去不复返了.东南亚政治在2008年基本能够保持稳定,马来西亚顺利举行大选;泰国前总理他信回国,新总理沙玛一再强调是他信的代言人,新政府执行了一条没有他信的他信政策.东盟通过了<东盟宪章>,它标志着这个地区性国际组织进入一个新的时代.东盟与各个大国的关系也比较顺利,日本在东南亚又有一些新的动作,福田首相继承其父亲老福田的路线,加强了东南亚外交.     

亚洲移民的社会性别研究——以菲律宾、印度尼西亚和中国为例

研究亚洲移民社会性别时,要关注两种主要形式:合同式的劳工移民和自发式的劳工移民,同时应关注劳工移民中的社会性别问题。以菲律宾、印度尼西亚和中国的移民情况为例,一般说来,这些移民工人的生存状况都受到了很大的局限,无法拥有输入国公民和永久居民拥有的许多权利,这是需要从国际、地区和国家等不同层面给予解决的政策性问题。     

布什政府对东盟的政策及其对中国的影响

本文总结了布什执政以来美国对东盟的政策,探讨了影响美国政策的因素,分析了美国对东盟政策的调整将对中国—东盟关系产生的影响。文章认为,“9.11”事件以后,美国的反恐战争为其重返东南亚提供了契机。布什政府调整了对这一地区的政策,改善或提升了与东盟国家的关系。然而,把东盟作为一个地区机制,美国还没有完整的战略。美国主要推进的是双边关系,其中以军事关系为重。美国政策对中国的影响是复杂的,在中美关系稳定的情况下,其负面影响在短期内不会太大。     

Re-emergence of Asia and the Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economy in Super Long Waves of Capitalist World Systems

ABSTRACT

After the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, we are facing the beginning of the end of the post-war capitalist world system. The 1920s was in the middle of the social, political and economic interregnum, a period of discontinuity in the social order, accompanied by widespread unrest, wars and power vacuums. In this article, that framework of the long and super long waves in the capitalist world systems is used to examine the recent interregnum that marks the re-emergence of Asia. Within the framework of the long and super long waves a new “flying geese” theory is built by incorporating the theory of dynamic industries with Akamatsu’s theory. In the 1980s, Japanese integral production architecture improved quality and productivity in the automobile and electrical machinery industries. In the 1990s, the USA’s open modular production architecture enabled China’s compressed industrialisation, and the China-centric Asian production network replaced the Japan-led Pacific Rim triangular trade regime. In the 2000s, the knowledge-and technology-intensive (KTI) industries have established themselves as the new dynamic industries. The USA is the leading country to develop KTI industries. China is catching up quickly and has leapfrogged Japan in KTI industries. In conclusion, it is argued that these changes mark an approaching second interregnum.     

Governance and order-making in Central Asia: from illiberalism to post-liberalism?

ABSTRACT

This forum brings together five different angles on the question as to whether and how political regimes and forms of order-making can and should be researched through the concept of ‘illiberalism’. The discussion engages critically with this and associated concepts, such as ‘illiberal peace’ and ‘authoritarian conflict management’, which have been developed out of the Central Asian / Eurasian context and discussed in their wider global ramifications and, within the framing of ‘illiberal peace’, explored in various contexts in and beyond Central Asia. While further assessing the relevance and implications of this approach, this forum also attempts to think beyond ‘illiberalism’ by introducing and discussing the idea of ‘post-liberalism’. This way, the authors engage in an exchange that serves to probe both concepts and to determine their strengths and limitations when it comes to analysing and understanding politics and societal processes in Central Asia.     

二战中罗斯福奉行"先欧后亚" 战略之原因探析

二战中罗斯福奉行的"先欧后亚"战略,既是美国全球战略的具体体现,又反映了国际社会主要矛盾的发展,同时中国人民的抗日战争也为该战略的实施提供了良好的条件.     

Changing arenas for agricultural climate change adaptation in Vietnam

Great changes are underway in how climate and agricultural risks are managed in Vietnam. Uncertainties are emerging regarding the role of the state in managing these risks and what this implies for assumptions regarding hoped-for climate change transformations. Local government control is waning in relation to the expanding roles of the private sector and the growing autonomy of farmers themselves. This article presents cases that illustrate the ways that farmers, private investors, and local authorities are responding to climate risk within roles relating to the other risks involving markets, food security, and pressures on common property resources.     

Developing urban space: the changing role of NGOs in Bangladesh

Rapid urbanisation has been an emerging issue in recent decades, particularly for developing countries such as Bangladesh. As one of world’s largest international NGOs, BRAC, based in Bangladesh, is transiting towards a more integrated approach for alleviating urban poverty. This article presents BRAC’s current journey for eradicating urban poverty and outlines the characteristics of urban poverty, key issues faced by the urban poor, and learning that BRAC has accumulated through its urban interventions. Introducing the concept of “coproduction”, the article identifies BRAC’s priorities to eradicate urban poverty within the context of an overall urban strategy.     

NGO networks in Central Asia and global civil society: potentials and limitations

Based on research carried out by INTRAC (International NGO Training & Research Centre) in 2006–2007 in four countries of Central Asia for Oxfam–Novib, the article investigates NGO networks and their international links in the context of current theory on civil society and global civil society. Three case studies of NGOs working in service delivery, community development and free media are examined to show the diversity of aims and the potential and challenges of networking in the region. Civil society advocacy at national and international levels is analysed with a fourth case study on the campaign conducted in Kyrgyzstan against joining the World Bank's Highly Indebted Poor Countries programme. This example shows a more radical, alternative mode of civil society activism. The article emphasizes the importance of national- and regional-level networking and poses the question of whether NGOs in Central Asia can shift from their current positions on the periphery of global movements and debates.