祖孙双单亲比对的匹配概率研究

目的推导祖孙双单亲比对的匹配概率(PMGDS)公式,并以随机模拟法进行验证。方法首先,根据定义推导PMGDS的数学公式,依据此公式在19个基因座上计算PMGDS的数值。其次,以随机模拟法设计实验,在19个基因座上计算PMGDS的模拟值。最后,以模拟值对比公式值的方式,对公式进行实验验证。结果研究获得了PMGDS的数学公式,经模拟实验验证显示出良好的符合。结论祖孙双单亲比对的错判概率较低,具有很好的应用价值。     

‘Let's Win this Game Together’: Children's Rights Violations,Macro‐Securitisation and the Transformative Potential of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Sport's transformative potential is known to support marginalised children, to deal with traumatic experiences and instil positive values; yet hosting mega sporting events (MSEs) can have negative impacts. Drawing on participatory research with favela‐based children during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, this article argues that MSEs bring a macro‐securitisation of urban life, which causes considerable harm. This paper also suggests that the inclusion of children's voices in advocacy debates can challenge top‐down securitisation and might allow MSEs to foster further positive social transformation. Therefore, juxtaposed with causing harm, macro‐securitisations can open opportunities for children to take action and have their voices heard.     

Mobilising the Periphery: Brazil's My House My Life Programme and the Homeless Workers' Movement

Brazil's Movimento de Trabalhadores Sem Teto (MTST, Homeless Workers' Movement) has grown dramatically in recent years. This growth was partly provided for by the use of a large government housing programme, Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV, My House My Life), which allowed the MTST to construct housing for its members and swell its ranks with thousands of new members. Yet some have argued that the MCMV programme used by the MTST may compromise the autonomy of civil society organisations. This article, by contrast, argues that while the MCMV programme encouraged bureaucratic practices, it also helped to promote the cultural politics of the MTST.     

论人工智能赋值国家治理:方法、视角与维度

赋值是智能政治学的重要研究课题,赋值研究是智能政治学的重要分析方法。人工智能赋值国家治理,从分析视角来看,表现为人工智能科学、人工智能技术、人工智能形态和人工智能体对国家治理的多重赋值和多源性影响作用。从分析维度来讲,表现为人工智能从赋益、赋义、赋能、赋权、赋则和赋责等多维度影响作用或赋值国家治理,甚至推动国家治理从"人工智能+国家治理"的形式赋值质变为"人机智能治理"的实质赋值。选择"赋值"术语工具、赋值理论和赋值分析方法,以分析研究人工智能影响作用国家治理,将有助于探明人工智能赋值国家治理的理论逻辑、历史逻辑和实践逻辑,从而推动智能政治学以及国家智能治理问题的理论研究和学术创新。     

Simple Rhetoric and Complex Punitiveness: Federal Criminal Justice Responses to White-Collar Criminality

Abstract

Though criminological literature shows that the manifestation of punitiveness in the criminal justice system is complex, it rarely differentiates between responses to different kinds of crimes. This constitutes a significant gap in knowledge, as it is widely believed that white-collar crimes are treated leniently. In light of the “heating up” of political rhetoric, the expansion of federal criminal law, and the increased maximum punishments on conviction, the article aims to explore whether prosecutorial and judicial responses to white-collar crimes have become more punitive, employing rarely used datasets from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) between 1996 and 2014. It is demonstrated that these responses are more complex and less consistently punitive than the rhetoric and policies advanced by politicians. It endeavors to capture the complexity of punitiveness in practice by measuring numerous variables and multiple points in the criminal justice process, studying punitiveness from multiple angles, using prosecution and sentencing data.     

From ‘Green Laggard’ to Regional Leader: Explaining the Recent Development of Environmental Policy in Chile

Environmental policy in Chile has developed rapidly in recent years, and the country has become a regional leader in renewable energy, climate change policy, recycling, and nature conservation. This contrasts with the previous neglect of environmental issues in the country and its depiction as a ‘green laggard’ (Orihuela, 2014: 251) within Latin America. In this article the recent development of environmental policy in Chile is reviewed and five factors affecting this development are analysed: international influences, institutional legacies, a window of opportunity opened by environmental movements, policy entrepreneurship, and business power.     

From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, a diverse set of policy communities, including those with defence, development and environmental mandates, frame climate change as a security threat. Most often this discursive formation labels climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This framing, however, is vague, linear and leaves many questions unanswered regarding how institutions can develop and implement policy that addresses the joint challenges of climate change, conflict and security. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, and grounding data collection in US policy communities, this article examines how policy actors and institutions integrate climate-security discourses into policy processes. The objective of this research is to provide direct insight into how the discourses and technical understandings of climate-security transition into policy priorities and implementation realities. This research identified three common approaches to climate-security: (1) A challenge of adaptation and resilience; (2) A potent political argument; and (3) An issue of limited importance and feasibility. These approaches, however, are inconsistent across sectors and within organisations, suggesting a lack of cohesion and considerable challenges in identifying and responding to climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.     

中国利用外资新特点及其思考

随着改革开放的更进一步纵深展开,中国利用外资在近几年也呈现出了一些新特点。本文旨在介绍我国在利 用外资上的新模式和新领域,并针对这些新特点,对外资的宏观管理提出一些建议。     

WTO背景下的政府政策体制分析

加入WTO将对我国政府的政策体制带来深刻的影响。目前政府政策体制存在着突出问题,我国政府应遵循政策体制改革与创新的原则,构建适应WTO要求的政策体制。     

大治安格局的理念与全新的工作方式

大治安格局是以指挥中心为龙头,以社区警务建设为基础,以强化社会控制为手段,以公安科技建设为保障,各警种和社会力量广泛参与,采取专群结合,打防结合,动静结合,点线面结合,人防、物防、技防等方式方法,形成集预防、发现、打击犯罪等功能于一体的社会治安防控的大治安格局。