毛泽东工农联盟思想的形成与中国革命新道路的开辟

工农联盟问题是中国共产党在中国这个＂农民国度＂里领导新民主主义革命过程中的一个重要现实问题,在找到并确认＂农村包围城市,武装夺取政权＂这条中国革命新道路之前,毛泽东也曾受到＂城市中心论＂的影响。在中国革命的重心从城市向乡村转移的过程中,毛泽东积极探索并正确处理好工人运动与农民运动、城市与乡村的关系,逐步形成和完善了工农联盟思想,最终催生了中国革命新道路并取得了革命的胜利。     

模糊盟友:联盟体系视角下的美国与土耳其关系

联盟是美国二战后维持全球影响力的重要外交工具。在其诸多盟友中,土耳其极为特殊,在两国正式的盟友关系背后是脆弱多变、充满矛盾冲突、似乎随时崩裂而又难以割舍的复杂关系。这种关系不仅在美国的传统盟友当中罕见,与美国中东战略伙伴相比也显得与众不同,因此研究美土关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。以“模糊盟友”概念构建的综合分析框架既突出地缘战略、全球化、地区力量分化重组等结构性因素对美土关系的制约,也强调两国政府和领导人的战略和政策选择在美土盟友关系转型过程中的作用。在结构性因素与过程性因素的综合作用下,美土关系从传统盟友向“模糊盟友”转变,产生的后果广泛而深远,不仅重塑美国和土耳其的地区战略,影响到地区安全秩序,也为美国的联盟体系带来不确定性。     

韩国在六方会谈中的多重平衡外交

朝核六方会谈对韩国的国家利益利害关系重大,韩国的应对策略也最为复杂和微妙。韩国既要顾及短期安全利益与长远民族利益之间的平衡,又要弥合国内政治力量之间的政策分歧,并竭力避免其对北政策与对美政策之间出现零和局面,同时还需兼顾联盟政策及其东北亚地缘战略之间的平衡,因此六方会谈事实上成为韩国实施多重平衡外交的一个重要契机。目前来看,这种复杂的平衡外交方针基本是成功的,然而其最终政策效果尚待进一步观察。     

同盟安全与防扩散——美国延伸威慑的可信度及其确保机制

冷战以来,美国就始终坚持推行延伸威慑战略,并将其视为最重要的防扩散工具之一。然而,这种基于经验的政策逻辑缺乏系统性的理论支持。获得美国延伸威慑保护的国家或约束自己的核扩散行为,或走上研发核武器的道路,抑或推行两面下注的"核避险"战略。在获得延伸威慑保护与核不扩散行为之间,并未呈现出简单的因果关系。因此,延伸威慑究竟是不是一种有效的防扩散手段以及在何种条件下才能起到防扩散的作用,便是值得深入探讨的问题。在控制外部威胁以及供给侧因素等干扰变量之后,本文发现延伸威慑的可信度是影响受保护国核扩散行为的中间变量。而可信度的变化又与美国和盟友之间建立起来的一系列确保机制相关。确保机制包括口头或书面承诺、前沿部署、核分享以及核磋商这四类措施。不同的确保措施对延伸威慑可信度的影响不同,同时也会对美国在核安全以及受牵连的问题上造成相应的影响。因此,美国及其盟友往往在确保机制的选择上有着不同的利弊偏好。冷战时期,联邦德国和韩国在同时受到外部安全威胁和美国延伸威慑保护的情况下,却采取了不同的核扩散行为,对此延伸威慑可信度及其确保机制理论做出了合理解释。总体上,由于美国与不同盟友所建立的确保机制不尽相同,从而使得延伸威慑的可信度出现差异,并最终导致盟友之间出现不同的核扩散行为。     

“五微共享、五联共治”:基层党建引领社会治理的实践探索——以南京建邺区江心洲街道为例

基层党建在构建符合城市特色的基层社会治理体系中发挥着重要作用,是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要任务。在基层党组织的引导下,南京市江心洲街道抓住“中新国际生态科技岛”建设的机遇,创造性地进行了具有江心洲特色的“五微共享、五联共治”基层党建引领社会治理的探索。系统阐述“五微”“五联”的基本内涵,总结出其在职能定位、结构优化、机制整合和赋权保障方面的经验做法,并进一步探索现代化社区建设中党建智能化与社会治理深度融合的启示,具有较强的现实意义和借鉴价值。     

Explaining Australia–Japan security cooperation and its prospects: ‘the interests that bind?’

In this paper, we assess the drivers of, and prospects for, further security cooperation in the Australia–Japan bilateral relationship. We argue that while balance of threat and capability gaps may restrain the pace of deepening Australian-Japan security relations, these gaps are diminishing and are, in any case, secondary to the specific shared interests we posit as the primary drivers of Australia–Japan security cooperation. These specific interests, however, are shaped not only by a commitment in both countries to liberal-based principles and freedoms at home and in inter-state relations, but also by a common awareness of the importance of continued US primacy to the ongoing maintenance of those interests. Thus, in the absence of any fundamental change in how Australia and Japan understand their respective interests and the US role in the region, Donald Trump's recent and unexpected election as US president notwithstanding, we conclude that the case for further security cooperation – via additional cross-bracing of their respective US alliance relationships – will almost certainly remain compelling for both countries.     

Alliance Proximity and Effectiveness of Extended Deterrence

This article examines whether geographical proximity between defensive allies and a protégé increases the likelihood of successful extended general deterrence. I argue that proximate allies are better at making a credible deterrent threat because proximate allies are more willing and able to help alliance partners in times of crisis than distant ones. This claim is theorized by examining how geographical distance influences the international and domestic costs of alliance commitments. The empirical tests reveal that a potential aggressor is less likely to initiate a militarized dispute against a target with proximate defensive allies. Furthermore, I find that the power of proximate defensive allies is a more significant determinant of successful extended general deterrence than that of distance allies. Interestingly, I also find that the constraining effects of geographical distance on the effectiveness of extended general deterrence have been alleviated by advancements in military technologies throughout history.     

Shifting locus of governance? The case of NATO's connected forces initiative

In early 2012, NATO's then-Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, unveiled the Connected Forces Initiative (CFI), an effort designed to increase allied interoperability and readiness. Through three lines of effort – training and education, exercises, and better use of technology – the CFI is intended to help the alliance maintain the operational and tactical interoperability it developed in Afghanistan. At first glance, the CFI appears to represent an example of the claims of some neo-institutionalist scholars that there is a shift in the locus of governance from member states to NATO. However, this article takes a deeper look and concludes that in fact the locus of security governance is not shifting, at least not in this instance. Member states of the alliance retain several means of controlling and influencing NATO, thereby preventing it from developing a significant degree of autonomy, in contrast to the European Union or United Nations.     

对战后初期美国转变对日政策原因的再审视

战后美日关系的变动,始终是影响东亚地区稳定的重要因素。战后初期美国对日政策的重心经历了从改造到扶持的转变过程。这一转变有着复杂的历史背景和原因,经历了曲折的转变过程,转变的直接结果奠定了之后的美日关系,且至今仍对东亚地区国际政治格局的变化存在着重要影响。战后初期影响美国转变对日政策的诸因素,并非先前中外学者所分析的平行并重,而是有先有后,有主有次,诸因素形成一个逻辑因果链,最终导致"旧金山体制"形成。在美国转变对日政策过程中,意识形态分歧和美苏大国间国家利益的博弈互为表里,时而契合,时而背离,但最终依归是各自的国家利益。所有这些对于预判目前东亚地区国际政治格局的走向和趋势、对于确立处理该地区国际事务的基调和对策是有重要的现实借鉴意义的。     

Prospects for China-ASEAN Relations

正TERRITORIAL disputes in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines notwithstanding,China-ASEAN relations remain very much on the track of peaceful development,mutual-benefit,and win-win cooperation.China recently raised new proposals on handling tensions in the South China Sea,so further diminishing possibilities that the issue