论CEPA的性质、效力及其争议解决模式

自由贸易区是一种仅在区内成员之间实行自由贸易 ,而对成员与非成员之间的贸易无任何约束的松散型的区域经济组织。在“一国两制”框架内制定的CEPA ,其性质为一个主权国家内统辖不同单独关税领土的政府之间达成的自由贸易协议 ,但仍然具有国际法上的效力。由于中国内地与港澳特区同为WTO成员 ,CEPA的制定与实施因而应受到WTO规则的制约。有关CEPA的实施和解释的争议应在联合指导委员会的框架内通过双边协商机制解决的模式选择是从中国国情出发并且在权衡各种争议解决机制利弊的基础上作出的 ,如果另设其他机制 ,则与中国的最大利益相悖。     

Comparative Analysis and Economic Policies with Special Reference to Financial Crises

Policies for preventing or mitigating unfavorable economic conditions, such as inflation, balance-of-payments deficits, and recessions are usually determined by successful policies used in the past, but these policies may not be relevant for certain problems in the future due to changes in conditions. In the past, developing countries with balance of payments problems seeking help from the IMF were usually required to reduce their budget deficits, restrict the money supply, and make other macroeconomic restrictions. However, financial crises experienced by the East Asian countries in 1995–1996 arose mainly from declines in their securities markets accompanied by capital exports and sharp currency depreciation. The IMF provided generous assistance conditioned on the recipients' applying restrictive macroeconomic measures, even though there was no inflation or excessive monetary expansion. The cause of the financial crises was primarily capital outflows generated by defaults on loans made by banks largely for real estate projects, and in some cases resulting bank failures. The capital outflow and the sharp depreciation of the currencies, coupled with macroeconomic restrictions, led to recession and unemployment in these countries. The article goes on to discuss the policies the IMF should have promoted. Its credits should have been used to sustain imports rather than to support currencies and maintain debt service repayments.     

美日安全合作:从地区走向全球

美日同盟是美国维持亚太秩序的重要基石,也是日本外交政策的基轴,随着中国的崛起,美日双方已然意识到原有的同盟框架难以应对来自中国的挑战。为此,美日通过制订新的《美日防卫合作指针》,强化美日同盟,加强双方在全球范围内的安全合作。然而,美日安全合作同时也面临着质疑与否定,在美日两国内,长期以来一直存在着对美日同盟的争论。未来美日安全合作将如何发展,不仅取决于日本的安全感知,更取决于美国在国内国际新形势下将会采取的战略。由于美国新任总统特朗普一以贯之的对日负面认知,使得日本政府和国民对于特朗普的对日政策不抱期待。然而,特朗普上台后并不会撤走驻日美军,更不会让美日同盟解体,同时,商人出身的特朗普并不反对自由贸易,其反对的是无法贯彻其意志的自由贸易。因此,在特朗普总统任期中,其特有的个性和自信,将会使未来美国的对日政策打上"特式"烙印,这为美日关系的发展增加了许多不确定因素,美日同盟可能面临新的危机。