拜登当选背景下日本对华政策回顾与前瞻

日本对华政策一贯受到日美同盟、美国对华政策及中美日关系互动的影响与制约。特朗普时期,日本政府对中国"一带一路"倡议采取有限合作姿态,通过首脑互访等推动中日关系改善,其对华政策的战略自主性增强、两面性凸显。拜登上台后则更为重视与盟国的关系,关注全球性问题并倾向于参加多边国际合作,强调美国民主价值观的引领作用,反对激烈的关税战与对华全面"脱钩"。日本的对外政策取向在更大程度上与拜登的政策主张相互重合,日美双方的信任与协调将有所增强,日本对华政策亦将与美联动。为此,日本将更加注重以日美同盟为基轴的对华制度制衡,或将加大对"中国威胁论"及涉港、涉疆等问题的炒作力度,为确保"产业链安全"而对华采取更为谨慎的态度。     

日本对美经济合作新动向及前景评估

美国特朗普政府奉行“美国第一”的经济单边主义政策,在贸易问题上不时敲打日本.对此日本加大了对美经济的合作力度,不仅大幅提升了对美经济合作的政策主动性,还积极追加对美投资等,刺激美国实体经济增长.尽管如此,日本国内普遍担忧日美经济合作前景、特朗普政府的“经济单边主义”及其经济政策的可行性、日本的海外利益等诸多问题.受其影响,短期内日美经济合作关系将出现“双速型”的发展模式,即能源及农业贸易等战术问题将得以突破,而日美FTA、TPP等战略问题将久拖不决.     

特朗普时期美日贸易摩擦的缘起、分歧、特点与影响

美国总统特朗普上台后对日本挑起贸易摩擦。究其原因,既源于美国对日贸易巨额逆差的存续,还受到特朗普对日贸易理念的驱动以及个人决策偏好的影响。其核心分歧体现在货物贸易、贸易规则与汇率问题三个方面;特点是摩擦烈度相对不高、政治引领色彩明显、货物贸易优先突破;影响在于美日双边贸易结构趋于"相对平衡"、日本国内对美国的负面认知有所提升、日本更加重视多边贸易体系建设、亚太区域经济合作路径更加多元。尽管特朗普政府已于近期与日本达成新的贸易协定,但随着多边贸易体系和亚太区域经济合作的发展,从长远看,在今后的美日贸易中日本仍可获得一定优势。     

美日技术联盟的发展走向北大核心

随着中国科技力量的崛起,掌控高科技优势的美日等西方大国认为自身既得利益遭遇挑战,美国和日本以安全同盟为基础,加强双方科技合作,试图发展成为技术联盟,遏制中国科技进步。具体路径包括,构建双多边技术合作机制、拉拢经济上高度依赖美日的国家纳入其技术遏制体系、加强国内技术创新、强化两国科技政策协同等。未来,美日将坚持把科技议题政治化与安全化,采取更严苛的技术封锁手段阻挠中国在全球技术产业链地位提升,这势必对中国的发展造成影响。面对美日力推技术联盟的行为,中国也应认识到美日对技术合作目标和行动的差异,扩大与美日以科技为驱动的共同利益,削弱美日组建技术联盟的意向,推动与欧盟和发展中国家的技术合作,避免陷入技术封锁的被动局面。另外,中国应通过多重途径向美日涉华科技政策施加影响,同时致力于促进国内高尖端技术自主研发,以应对美日科技联盟带来的挑战。     

杜特尔特执政后美菲同盟关系演变

自2016年6月菲律宾总统杜特尔特执政以来,美菲同盟关系经历了复杂的变化。奥巴马执政末期美菲同盟关系由密切变为冷淡;2017年1月美国总统特朗普上任后,美菲关系得到改善,但双方之间的矛盾犹存。尤其是2018年底菲律宾国防部长洛伦扎纳提出审查《美菲共同防御条约》,引发轩然大波。美菲同盟关系跌宕起伏的原因包括:两国领导人关系、各自利益的重心方向、国内局势需求、外交政策变化等等。目前,菲律宾提出审查《美菲共同防御条约》一事尚无结果,未来两国同盟关系的演变发展仍将充满变数,但总体是继续维系甚至有所发展。     

特朗普治下的美日同盟关系及其未来走向

美日同盟是美国亚太战略的重要支撑,其调整变化对于地区局势产生了重要影响。特朗普执政以来,受国内外环境的影响,其对外政策呈现出孤立主义、少边主义、交易主义等特点,美日同盟也因此出现了一些新变化。特朗普政府的亚太战略尽管仍不明确,但其对美日同盟的倚重不会改变。美日同盟走向将深受地缘政治、中国因素、防务分担、贸易摩擦等诸多因素的影响。虽然美日同盟关系仍然紧密,但并非线性发展,双方之间的贸易摩擦以及军费分摊问题在特朗普上台后表现得更为突出。     

"美国优先"对美韩、美日同盟的影响

特朗普政府大力推进"美国优先"外交政策理念,将"公平贸易"和"防务分担"作为解决与日韩等传统军事盟友"不公平""不对等"关系的两大突破口,通过施压的方式,迫使后两者在经贸和防务开支两大议题上向美国让步。这种功利主义做法,引发了日韩的强烈不满,迫使其采取了一系列应对举措,激发自主性努力以期更好地维护本国经济与安全利益。尽管美韩、美日同盟不会因此受到根本性冲击,但未来必将面临更大的不确定性和更多挑战。     

日美同盟的强化及其影响

冷战结束后,日美同盟不仅没有终结,反而在加强。这主要体现在:日美同盟法制框架健全化,磋商与协作机制繁琐化、紧密化,合作领域多元化。其原因涉及谋求同盟整体功能的最大化与同盟运行成本的最小化、同盟国相互约束的强化、同盟参与国国际和国内需要的强化以及同盟过去的收益产生对未来收益的预期等。美日同盟的强化对引发新的大规模对抗、合作与平等互利的经济秩序建设、以及中国和平崛起等已经并将继续产生重大影响。     

日美强化同盟关系对中国周边安全的影响北大核心CSSCISSCI

2015年4月最新修订的《日美防卫合作指针》使日美同盟的合作机制更为明晰,合作空间更为拓展,合作内容更为广泛。经过此次修订,日美同盟得到进一步巩固和强化,由传统安全合作同盟变为全方位安全合作同盟,由区域性同盟变为全球性同盟,由从属型同盟变为更加平等互助的同盟,由防御性同盟变为更具进攻性的同盟。应对中国崛起已成为日美同盟的基本战略目标,不断强化的日美同盟将给中国周边安全带来更大的负面影响。     

美国亚太同盟体系的网络化及前景

美国亚太同盟体系的网络化已产生“集群”效应,推动轮辐结构向网状结构转化.本文以美日韩、美日澳、美日印三组三边合作为考察对象,分析了网络化的新进展及其深刻背景,并对三边合作发展为“亚太小北约”的前景作了分析.本文认为,三边合作在机制化以及安全合作的深化两大方面取得了重要进展,这源于美国的政策调整、三边关系中双边安全合作的加强以及亚太地区现有多边机制的不足.未来三边合作能否发展为“亚太小北约”取决于美国的决心与能力、双边关系的发展水平以及各方联合对华的程度,中国需对此密切关注.     

China＇s Rise vs. International Order Evolution

A heated debate over the rise of China has been going on unabated in the international community for nearly two decades. However, with the elapse of time, the initial divergence of views in the mainstream opinion has gradually diminished and the gap in China policy among nations has likewise narrowed down. Instead, reason and a realistic approach have eventually taken center stare.     

The U. S. Policy toward DPRK: Opportunities and Constraints

布什政府上台以来,始终未能阻止朝鲜拥核步伐.朝核试后,美对朝政策有了新的调整,六方会谈得以复会.但美朝双方受各自国家利益和政策目标的限制,在朝鲜半岛无核化问题上的尖锐分歧难以解决,朝核危机仍存在再度升级的可能.     

Marxist Philosophy vs. International Relations Research in China

This article argues for the confirmation of Marxist philosophy as the ideology that guides international relations （IR） studies in China. Justification comes through the following points. According to Marxism, correct theoretical guidance serves as the prerequisite for correct practice. Marxist philosophy embodies, by nature, righteousness, in opposition to political hegemony. Accordingly, practice under its guidance represents fruitful revolutionary realism. Finally, advanced studies of international relations in this country cannot be separated from philosophical thinking. Using these arguments as background, this article specifically advocates materialism, patriotism, and service to the people as the corner-stone of China＇s IR theory building.     

Excavating Concealed Tradeoffs: How Russians Watch the News

Citizens in democracies are expected to make better decisions if they understand policy tradeoffs. However, politicians rarely have incentives to communicate them; citizens are uncomfortable choosing among valued outcomes; and devising a common metric is difficult. It is not surprising that in the United States the environment provides relatively little cuing or priming of tradeoffs in television news. Russian citizens, on the other hand, face a media environment in which tradeoff cuing is intentionally suppressed by owners' agendas, yet viewers detect concealed tradeoffs even in the absence of tradeoff priming and viewpoint diversity. Analysis of discourse among ordinary Russians in 16 focus groups convened in four cities, differentiated by political reform and media market environments, showed that when watching news in which tradeoffs are thoroughly concealed, viewers challenge stories by offering a broad spectrum of uncued tradeoffs. Tradeoffs come from diverse policy domains and represent a range of cognitive strategies, some of which are considerably more abstract than others and link elements of their observations and assumptions (together with what they can extract from the stories) into complex reasoning outcomes.     

The U.S. Global Strategy as Seen from the Debate in the Primary Election

There may be more than one year to go before the 2008 U.S. presidential election, but the primary election of the two parties has already begun ahead of time. Both the Democratic and Republican candidates for the     

Young American China Watchers＇ Views on China

In this paper, the author has made a thorough study over the new generation of American China Watchers. Most of the pages are devoted to a detailed comparison between the old generation and the young generation of American China Watchers regarding to their background, education, and views over China. At the end of the paper, the author also gives some policy suggestions for both the Chinese and U.S. government based on the findings in this study.     

Constitution of the Chinese Associa tion for Interna tiona l Understa nding(Approved by the Plenary Session of the Eleventh Executive Council on April 2, 2014)

正Chapter I General Rules Article 1 The Chinese Association for International Understanding is a national non-governmental organization(NGO)in the People’s Republic of China.Article 2 The official name of the Association is"Zhong Guo Guo Ji Jiao Liu Xie Hui"in Chinese,or"Jiao Liu Xie Hui"for short.Its English translation is"Chinese Association for International Understanding",and abbreviated as"CAFIU".     

Guide to Authors

正Published by China Institute of International Studies,China International Studies is China’s first English-language journal on diplomacy and international politics for formal circulation.The magazine mainly publishes the latest research achievements of Chinese scholars and specialists on China’s diplomacy,international politics and international relations under such columns as China’s Diplomacy,International Relations,International Politics,International Security,Regional Issues and World Economy.     

My Journey to Artistic Peak

正I was born in a doctor’s family in a village in Heze,Shandong Province.Since the ancient times,Heze has been home to many painters and literature masters due to the influence of Confucianism.My grandfather and greatgrandfather were both good at calligraphy,not least to mention their medical skills.Even by now,senior people in our village still praise them for it.Both of them had deceased before I was born.     

Sidelights on Australian and New Zealand's Rotary Club Delegation's Visit to China

正At the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU),a 6-member Australian and New Zealand’s Rotary Club delegation visited China from September 23 to September 27.As a staff member of CAFIU,I had the honor to take part in the reception of the delegation throughout this trip.