双边主义—WTO体系内的双刃剑

世界贸易组织 (WTO)机制的建立和有效运行 ,使多边措施在实际效用上取得了质的飞跃。但不可否认 ,国家间存在着政治经济实力的差距 ,多边机制因参与者众多而不可避免地带有费时性和妥协性等弊端 ,强势国家往往希望通过与特定对象的双边磋商谈判和签订双边协定的方式 ,更为高效地实现自身的利益。因此 ,双边措施与WTO内多边机制并存的格局 ,是国际社会的政治经济现状所决定的。本文通过分析双边主义兼容于WTO机制的利弊 ,以期在多边框架下对双边措施进行有效引导与规制 ,为自由贸易价值的实现提供重要保障。     

管控权力转移:面向21世纪的大国协调机制

国际体系中的权力更迭,尤其是权力转移,常常与(军事)冲突相伴。权力转移理论对此现象做出了分析,却没有提出解决之道。因此可以在大国协调的基础上,建立一套全新的非正式多边安全治理机制,以缓和目前全球权力更迭出现的紧张局势。19世纪的欧洲协调机制,以共同的规范和程序为基础,通过建立合作框架,在一代人的时间里,避免了大国之间的战争。文章以现代大国协调机制为框架,探索管控未来权力更迭的可行性,并借此为权力转移理论补充了两点新内容:衰落霸权国对未来秩序的(不)满意情绪的重要性;以更广泛的大国多边合作框架,取代权力转移理论传统的双边"决斗"情势。唯有在此基础上,才能实现机制化的权力转移管控。     

Diversity Management: Regionalism and the Future of the International Order

Abstract

The ongoing redistribution of power on the international stage points to a more decentred international system featuring a multiplication of governance arrangements. A larger range of pivotal countries have the capacity and the confidence to pursue different priorities, a development that questions the prevalent post-Cold War expectation that the liberal international order would grow both wider and deeper. The central challenge for the future of the international order is managing diversity in ways that minimise conflict and leverage the benefits of interdependence. The evolution of regionalism and regional orders will be a critical dimension of the realignment of power, interests and normative agendas at the global level. Both more competition and more cooperation are likely to take place at the regional level, with the mix changing in different parts of the world. Provided that it is not merely a cover for coercive hegemonic aspirations and that it is designed to complement other levels of cooperation, regionalism can play an important role in preventing a more polycentric world from becoming a more fragmented and unstable one.     

The Renewed ‘Struggle for Syria’: From the War ‘in’ Syria to the War ‘over’ Syria

ABSTRACT

Syria is generally considered a case of non-intervention. One of the dominant (since the 1990s) kinds of intervention, namely multilateral humanitarian intervention, failed, as did other attempts by a select group of countries to implement a ‘red line’ concerning the use of chemical weapons. However, in this case, there is no sharp dichotomy between intervention and non-intervention. In lieu of an intervention that would tilt the balance and coordinate help to halt massacres, various rival and uncoordinated international and regional interventions overlapped over time, fuelling a market for violence. ‘Weakened interventionism’, as opposed to principled and hierarchical intervention, has manifested itself in Syria in a model recalling “the struggle for Syria” of the 1960s in a new, contemporary setting.     

The Making of the Inter-American Democratic Charter: A Case of Complex Multilateralism

This article examines the diplomatic process found in the making of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. Many components of this dynamic point to a significant bending of the "old" pattern of multilateralism associated with the Organization of American States (OAS). The normative purpose behind the charter centered on the collective right to democracy as opposed to the traditional defense of sovereignty. The pattern of involvement contained some parallels with initiatives considered the prototypes of a "new" multilateralism, namely the campaigns against antipersonnel land mines and for an International Criminal Court. That is to say it featured an intense style and a "bottom-up" diplomacy with extensive engagement by secondary states and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Notwithstanding these features, the multilateralism in the making of the Inter-American Charter is depicted as not simply "new" but complex. Stimulated by the 2000 political crisis located in that country, leadership on the charter came from Peru not a classic middle power. The United States was not the maker of the charter but neither was it an opponent or breaker of the initiative. The early burst of speed slowed when resistance appeared from a cluster of states. Serious splits appeared among NGOs involved with the charter process on a north/south basis. To nuance the claims of "new" multilateralism is not to discount the conceptual or (as witnessed by its use in the April 2002 crisis in Venezuela) operational significance of the charter. The argument made in this article, however, is that it was this hybrid nature of the initiative that contributed to its claims of innovation and measure of success.     

Regionalism in Asia as Disguised Multilateralism: A Critical Analysis of the East Asia Summit and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Revolving around the concept of ‘Community’ or ‘community’, debate on an Asian region has ostensibly pitted those who proposed an entity limited to East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea and the ten countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations, ASEAN) against those who proposed a much wider region embracing India, North (and, perhaps, South) America, as well as Australasia. Previously these two conceptualisations possessed their eponymous translation in the East Asian Economic Caucus (reincarnated as ASEAN+3) and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. However, with the creation in 2005 of the East Asian Summit to include India, Australia and New Zealand and, above all, its 2011 enlargement to include the United States and Russia, the contrast between the two conceptualisations of an Asian region has become confused. In order to explain this development, this article suggests that the language of ‘region’ or ‘community’ is a discursive smokescreen disguising changes in approaches to multilateralism. An examination of the East Asia Summit, contrasting it with another recent regional project, the Trans Pacific Partnership, suggests that the actors involved are seeking to ensure the primacy of individual nation states in intergovernmental multilateral relations.     

多边主义与东亚高政治合作

中国在国际关系中积极倡导多边主义,充分体现了中国外交与时俱进的精神和当代中国外交文化的先进性内涵.推动东亚政治合作是面向21世纪中国奉行多边主义外交战略的重要步骤,它事关东亚能否崛起为世界重要一极.中国在东亚的多边主义战略目标是构建一个和谐的东亚政治经济和安全环境.由于传统和历史的原因,东亚国家一直比较重视在"低政治"领域展开合作,但对"高政治"领域的合作却畏首畏尾,显得比较缓慢和迟钝.其实,东亚国家在战后初期就存在着大国主导"高政治"领域合作的空间.东亚虽然是世界主要的文明发祥地、战后各主要国家也先后实现了经济的起飞,但是政治上的作用却未能很好发挥出来.相反,东亚却成为霸权主义和强权政治轻易得手和随意操纵的地方,特别是由于政治合作意愿淡薄,直接导致了东亚大国政治上的分散化和政治问题的频繁发生,进而也威胁到经济社会发展领域,中日关系就是一个突出的例子.解决朝核问题的多边主义模式应该机制化,这是东亚"高政治"合作的重要起点,而中国应该成为该机制化过程中的主导力量.     

全球化背景下的国际合作导向

20世纪80年代以来，“全球化”概念已逐渐被世界各国所接受，成为跨越国象和民族界限的共同理念。维护世界和平，促进共同发展是国际合作的目标。当今世界各国问的经济合作与化交流更加广泛和深刻，而建立国际经济政治新秩序已成为国际合作的要求。在全球性问题不断出现的形势下，各国必须加强国际合作，使这一问题通过各国的共同努力，在世界范围内得到解决。面对科学技术的飞速发展，经济全球化进入了新阶段，从而也促使各国经常开展国际合作性的研究与开发。经济全球化加强了各国间的接触和日益密切的交往，不但使多边主义受到越来越多国家的推崇，而且使国际合作也将进入互信合作的新阶段。     

The state of public affairs after 11 September

There is a curiously subtle relationship between the public affairs function and the political world which it seeks to influence. A shock to the political system of the magnitude of the attack on the World Trade Center has effects on the practice of public affairs. Some of these impacts are obvious. Others will only become apparent with the passage of time. In its 15 years of existence the European Centre for Public Affairs has sought to be a ‘safe space’ in which the elements of the political world could meet and discuss in an independent manner and with a degree of academic rigour. From the moment of our founding, we rejected the idea of a world divided between government and lobbyists. It has always been our view that journalists and the media, lobbyists, both from civil society and from the corporate sector, and ministers, members of parliament and civil servants all form part of one seamless political world. They have the same fascination with power and with process. They are intimately and umbilically linked. With this holistic view of the political world, it is natural for the ECPA to be interested in assessing the impact of the events of 11 September on the practice of public affairs. Jointly with The Journal of Public Affairs and The Public Affairs Newsletter, we created a seminar at Chatham House on 9th January, 2002 entitled ‘Public Affairs and the World Crisis: What has changed since September 11th?’ Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

从双边主义到多边主义:东盟安全合作模式的转变

东盟框架内的多边主义一直是东盟安全战略的禁区,所以双边主义成为东盟主要的安全合作方式,但在冷战结束以后,东盟内部以及与外部多边合作的趋势越来越明显.本文利用多边主义和安全共同体的理论对此进行了分析.从目前来看,尽管东盟大多数国家认为双边安全合作仍然是主流,但安全领域的多边合作已经开始在东盟地区实施,并取得了实质性的进展和效果;而且随着东盟提出建立"安全共同体",多边主义将会在安全合作方面发挥越来越重要的作用.