The stability of punishment: A follow-up of Blumstein's hypothesis

Because of the intrinsic relativity of social tolerance toward crime, the rate of punishment that a given society inflicts on its criminals is expected to remain relatively constant over the long term, in spite of social changes and increasing or decreasing crime rates. This paper reconstructs the penal behavior of Montreal's criminal justice from 1845 to 1913 and finds that the stability hypothesis, all things considered, works quite well and has much heuristic value. Three problems, somewhat bypassed in the existing literature, are dealt with here: the reliability of penal statistical time series, the direct empirical evidence of stabilization processes, and a rather crude way of measuring prison punishment. It is suggested, furthermore, that the stability hypothesis include in its future argument the impact of increasing policing and that it be confined tentatively to modern western societies.     

The foreign policy and diplomatic attributes of a developmental state: South Africa as case study

With South Africa having declared itself a developmental state, this paper posits that if a developmental state is one that drives development, then the foreign policy of such a state should pursue development as one of its most important goals. Similarly the diplomatic corps of such a state should prioritise economic, commercial, para- and public diplomacy as drivers of diplomacy. In answering the question, ‘What should be the foreign policy and diplomatic attributes of a developmental state?’, the authors, through an exploratory approach, seek to analyse how well the state has fared in achieving this objective. To be a successful developmental state, a strategic capacity should exist and a clear strategic conception of the state's national interest should be formulated. Old paradigms about the role and functions of the diplomatic corps are challenged and a meritocratic diplomatic corps is strongly advocated to support the state's declared developmental goals.     

构建社会主义和谐社会是一项战略任务

构建社会主义和谐社会,对于积极推进中国特色社会主义伟大事业,全面建设小康社会具有重要的理论和实践意义。必须把构建社会主义和谐社会作为一项重要的战略任务来落实,集中全社会之力,多方协调共同建设,形成促进社会和谐的强大合力。     

略论我国城市社会稳定的建构

城市化的加快和急剧的社会转型,使大量的农村人口涌入城市,城市中的社会组织逐步发生分化,原有的道德观念体系受到强烈冲击,社会分层现象日益明显。这一切使我国的城市社会稳定面临着严峻的考验。我们必须深入分析当前影响城市社会稳定的各种因素,建构城市社会稳定体系。     

试论犯罪经济学的原理

犯罪经济学的理论基础是犯罪经济学所阐述的各种具体理论、观点的出发点,是统帅犯罪经济学各种具体理论、观点全局的基本理论。其核心是探讨如何解决和处理由资源的稀缺性同人类欲望的无限性这对矛盾引起的犯罪等非法活动问题。其构成要素主要有效用最大化、具有不同效率和协调作用的市场及市场主体稳定的偏好。犯罪经济学主要应用的理论有理性选择理论、成本和收益理论、惩罚成本和惩罚机率理论、边际效用理论等。犯罪经济学的理论价值在于:它的产生推动了犯罪学的深入发展,表明了经济学家也可以涉足犯罪研究领域,人类在同犯罪作斗争时也应讲求经济效益,等等。     

精英流出与农村稳定

大量农村精英流出是近年来农村稳定的直接原因;精英流动也成为资金、技术、知识、信息、观念向农村转移、促进城乡沟通以及村庄精英资源整合的重要机制,为积极构建乡村稳定局面做出了重要贡献。但精英流出也割裂了村庄的精英资源,对农村经济发展、政治改革、组织建设、文化传承等都存在负面影响。     

论构建和谐社会的制度保障

构建社会主义和谐社会需要有力的制度保障和有效的实施机制,构建和谐社会的制度保障需要从改革和稳定两个方面入手建设制度体系,并在动态发展中调整、优化和完善制度体系。要以科学改革观统领改革并完善制度,做到“六个完善、一个深化”;要以科学发展观维护稳定并强化制度,做到“一个提高、八个强化”。     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELF‐CONTROL: EXAMINING SELF‐CONTROL THEORY'S STABILITY THESIS*

Research on self‐control theory consistently supports its central prediction that low self‐control significantly affects crime. The theory includes other predictions, however, that have received far less scrutiny. Among these is the argument that self‐control is developed early in childhood and that individual differences emerging then persist over time. The purpose of this study is to provide a rigorous test of the stability thesis. First, we examine the extent of stability and change in self‐control for a national sample of U.S. children age 7 to age 15. Second, we consider whether parenting continues to affect self‐control during adolescence—a period after the point at which self‐control differences should be fixed. The analysis revealed strong absolute and relative stability of self‐control for more than 80 percent of the sample, and this stability emerged in large part as early as age 7. Contradicting the theory was a smaller portion of respondents (roughly 16 percent) who experienced substantial absolute and relative changes in self‐control even after the age of 10. Moreover, parental socialization continued to affect self‐control during adolescence, even after accounting for both prior self‐control and exposure to parental socialization.     

The Role of UNEP and UNDP in Multilateral Environmental Agreements

This study examines the role of the UN’s programmes for environment and development (UNEP and UNDP) in the genesis and implementation of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs). This is set in the wider context of the changing dominant focus of the international agenda, from ‘environment’ at the Stockholm Conference in 1972, to ‘environment and development’ at Rio in 1992, and ‚sustainable development’ in Johannesburg in 2002. UNDP is a development organisation strongly rooted in its country office network. Its role is becoming increasingly normative however, particularly since 2002 when UNDP opted to root most of its activities on the Millennium Development Goals. UNEP, as an environmental organisation has been successful at catalysing MEAs at the global and regional level; but without a significant increase in its budget over 30 years, its capacity has been spread very thinly. Many of the institutional arrangements for MEAs have effectively become independent of UNEP resulting in a very loosely and sometimes poorly coordinated network. Two case studies are used to illustrate the current institutional arrangements: UNEP’s Regional Seas Conventions and Protocols, and the Convention for Biological Diversity. These illustrate the fragmentation of current institutions, the need for strengthened technical and scientific support, the importance of addressing problems at their root causes and the need to increase the devolution of global governance to the regional level. Satisfying the identified needs requires actions within the remit of both UNEP and UNDP. It is argued that current institutional arrangements have not kept pace with the requirements of evolving policy. As part of a reform process, one option may be to merge the two programmes into a single structure that conserves and strengthens vital technical functions but enables a balanced and integrated approach to sustainable development.     

新安全观与中国国际传播的战略选择

国际传播在捍卫与社会主义国家性质相一致的意识形态利益,乃至国家整体安全战略方面有着极其重要的作用。"国家利益至上",是我国国际传播最根本的战略原则;"做国际社会中负责任大国"这一新世纪战略思想,是当前我国国际传播战略中的基本指导思想;"坚持'一国两制',维护祖国统一"方针的宣传,是当前乃至今后我国国际传播中一项极为重要的战略任务。"软权力"正成为现代国际关系中的聚焦点,为应对复杂的安全战略环境,维护国家利益,我国国际传播必须做出正确的战略选择。