TESTS OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS IN U.S. HOMICIDE TIME SERIES,AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS*

Attempts to explain temporal patterns in U.S. homicide data usually assume that a linear process accounts for the variation. A nonlinear process is an obvious alternative, however, and reasonable arguments suggest that nonlinearity may in part underlie homicide series dynamics. This paper applies tests for nonlinearity to national time series of homicide rates and counts. The results provide relatively little evidence of nonlinear structure; instead, a linear (random walk) process appears to generate most of the change in the series. Although this supports the unstated assumptions of current theories, it also raises questions about why homicides should follow a linear time path in the first place.     

委托理财协议中的保底条款效力之追问

保底条款是委托理财协议中最重要的条款,它不仅决定了这种投资方式的存在与否,同时亦是委托理财失败诉争时当事双方相持不下的根本原因。对于该条款的效力认定,目前的法律与司法实践并没有提供能真正能起到指导与评价作用的答案。因此,从合同的私法性、社会法性及保底条款与其它条款的勾连角度来追问保底条款的效力问题是合理与适法判决的关键所在。     

二层次四要件犯罪构成论——兼议正当化行为的体系地位

以解决正当化行为在犯罪论体系中地位不定,及其与犯罪构成关系不明为突破口;以反映定罪过程、权力与权利的平衡以及对抗制的诉讼程序特点为价值立场;兼顾中国已有的理论与实务情况,主张在我国犯罪构成论的应有结构为两层次四要件犯罪构成结构.此即:第一层次,三个要件,依次为犯罪客观要件、犯罪主体要件和犯罪主观要件;第二层次为犯罪客体一个要件,其中,正当化行为等作为排除犯罪客体的事由在此纳入犯罪构成要件之中.无此事由,犯罪即告成立.     

国际刑事司法协助制度的若干新发展

《联合国打击跨国有组织犯罪公约》和《联合国反腐败公约》对国际刑事司法协助制度的新近发展作出了一定程度的总结,特别是确立了以追缴被非法转移的犯罪所得或收益为中心的司法协助新体系,放宽了双重犯罪原则对非强制性司法协助活动的限制作用,全面推广司法协助"中央机关"的联系机制,同时,倡导各国在条件允许的情况下采纳远程视频听证和联合调查的取证新方式。这些发展所涉及的一些新规则值得加以深入研究。     

The GMO food arena in the EU (1998–2001)

A highly politicised arena in the EU has been caused by the 1998 Commission legislative proposal with regard to genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The debate over different interests became more intense. During the EU decision‐making process concerning GMOs, two larger coalitions cutting across institutions and countries waged the fight: one was led by industry and was in favour of GMOs and the other was against and mainly rooted in nongovernmental lobby groups. In mid‐2001, the ‘anti’ movement had gained a (temporary) winning position. In an attempt to explain this, it was concluded that the industrial lobby has been nonchalant in its preparatory work for public affairs management, by not carefully studying the various stakeholders, issues, time developments and the boundaries of this arena. With the benefit of hindsight it can be seen that the industrial lobby itself has missed opportunities and made unforced errors. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications     

鸭传染性腔上囊病毒VP2基因的克隆与序列分析

应用RT PCR法对分离于当地典型发病鸭群的鸭传染性腔上囊病毒 (IBDV )YL997株进行了VP2基因的克隆与序列分析 ,并和相关毒株进行了比较。结果表明 ,YL997株与STC株的核苷酸和氨基酸同源性只有 92 .5 %和 91.8% ,与超强毒株UK6 6 1的核苷酸和氨基酸同源性均为97.6 % ,而与当地鸡群中分离的超强毒株HN94 2的核苷酸和氨基酸同源性则高达 98.1%和98.4 % ,该毒株的VP2基因序列完全具备了超强毒株的主要特征。     

鸡myostatin基因成熟区段DNA的克隆及其在甲醇酵母中的融合表达

根据GenBank中鸡myostatin(AF019621)成熟区段的cDNA序列设计了1对引物,利用PCR技术扩增了萧山鸡myostatin的成熟区段,构建了重组真核表达载体myostatin-pPIC9K,并在甲醇酵母中融合表达了myostatin蛋白。结果发现,萧山鸡myostatin基因存在2处碱基变异:T204→C204(编码的氨基酸没有变),C205→T205(编码的氨基酸由Pro变成Ser),从而产生了1个EspⅠ或Bpu1102Ⅰ限制性内切酶酶切位点。核苷酸序列同源性分析表明,myostatin基因成熟区段DNA在不同物种间具有高度的保守性。SDS-PAGE鉴定结果表明,表达的目的蛋白(26 ku)具有生物学活性。     

DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics: Recommendations on the interpretation of mixtures

The DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG) was convened at the 21st congress of the International Society for Forensic Genetics held between 13 and 17 September in the Azores, Portugal. The purpose of the group was to agree on guidelines to encourage best practice that can be universally applied to assist with mixture interpretation. In addition the commission was tasked to provide guidance on low copy number (LCN) reporting. Our discussions have highlighted a significant need for continuing education and research into this area. We have attempted to present a consensus from experts but to be practical we do not claim to have conveyed a clear vision in every respect in this difficult subject. For this reason, we propose to allow a period of time for feedback and reflection by the scientific community. Then the DNA commission will meet again to consider further recommendations.     

The evolution of European legal integration

This article contributes to the development of theories on European integration by testing and exploring statistical models on the long-term development of legislative activity of the European Commission. Drawing on legal information gained from the European Union’s PreLex database and analyzing it with the help of statistical analyses, we map out growth patterns of EU law between 1976 and 2003. We construct time-series models and models based on non-linear regression. While the performance of models based on the traditional theoretical approaches, intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism, is rather poor, the analysis suggests that nonlinear dynamic models might be an interesting avenue for future conceptualizations of the EU integration process. This article is based on a paper presented at the ECPR Standing Group on the European Union Second Pan-European Conference on EU Politics, “Implications of a Wider Europe: Politics, Institutions and Diversity”, 24–26 June 2004, Bologna, Italy. We would like to thank the seminar participants for useful comments.     

法律经济学学科构建探析

法律经济学是法学和经济学的一种新的研究方法。法律经济学的发展史也印证了法律经济学是研究方法创新的结果。法律经济学从萌芽、初创、产生到发展,历经两个多世纪的演化,有着丰富的理论和实践研究成果,被冠以不同的称谓、被赋予丰富的内涵。法律经济学的概念具有多元化、动态、法学与经济学相结合的本质特征。