Expected utility or learned familiarity? The formation of voters' coalition preferences

In most modern parliamentary democracies, it is unlikely that single party governments will be formed, meaning that a voter's preferred party presumably has to share cabinet offices and negotiate policy compromises in a coalition government. This raises the question of how voters evaluate potential (coalition) governments, especially since recent studies have shown that coalition preferences influence voting behaviour. In this paper, we combine theories of voting behaviour, government formation and political learning to derive expectations regarding the factors that may impact voters' coalition preferences. We test our hypotheses by analysing survey data from the German federal and state levels. The results of a mixed logit regression analysis support our arguments: Voters' coalition preferences not only depend on the perceived policy distance between the positions of voters and the most distant party within combinations of parties, but also on predominant patterns of government formation.     

宪法的生命与权威———以规范与现实的逻辑关系为视角

影响宪法权威的因素有宪法规范上的原因、司法援引上的原因以及对宪法规范的实施所秉持的态度等，其中宪法规范的稳定性对于宪法权威的影响需要我们掌握正确的宪法稳定的认定标准，这对于维护宪法权威是至关重要的。另外，宪法的权威真正体现在社会生活之中，如何使宪法成为一个活的宪法，使宪法进入司法领域成为裁判的依据，发挥宪法作为法所具有的惩戒性、强制性的功能需要我们既要对现有的制度进行适当的完善，又要切实地落实现有的宪法规范所具有的制度意义。     

China's Politics and Bilateral Trade Linkages

Abstract

China's position in the world economy during the past half-century provides vital information for investigating the relation between politics and trade. Although there is a substantial number of studies in this area, the current study extends the literature in at least three ways: (1) it is one of the first studies that investigates the problem of a potential sample selection bias—as a result of the fact that countries taken up in the analysis are not randomly sampled from all countries in the world; (2) it considers third-country effects that follow from the fact that China's relation with any two countries is affected by the relation between these countries themselves; and (3) it tests the impact of five political arrangements simultaneously, which is more comprehensive than any former study. By using data as to 78 of China's trade partners over the 1950–2002 period, this study provides empirical evidence for the hypotheses that the establishment of diplomatic relations, cooperation, visits of heads of states and political system similarity are associated with greater trade flows. The hypothesis that member countries of a Preferential Trading Agreement have had smaller trade flows with China, which is no member of any of these Preferential Trading Agreements, is not supported by the results.     

网络空间草根政治运动及其公共治理

网络空间草根政治运动是草根力量以维护其利益为目的,运用网络技术组织的抗争性集体行动。草根政治运动在网络空间兴起是社会转型时期贫富分化的结果,也是网络时代权力重新分配的结果。它的表现形式主要有网络政治动员、网络舆论批评监督、网络政治参与,它有利于国家-市场-社会关系的优化,也有利于国家治理的发展,同时也可能给政治秩序稳定带来极大的难题。因此,对网络空间草根政治治理必须坚持整体性治理原则,引导与规制并举,现实政治与虚拟空间治理并重,使网络空间草根政治运动成为社会主义民主政治的重要建设性力量而非颠覆性力量。     

价值冲突与权益均衡:县级人大监督制度创新的机理分析

中国的地方政治制度创新是一个典型的政治过程,涉及制度创新的各行动主体之间的价值冲突,也与各利益相关者之间的权力与利益的博弈与均衡密切相关。本文总结和分析了近年来县级人大监督制度创新的具体实践和内在机理,认为人大制度作为多重制度价值体系冲突的焦点,是近年来地方人大制度创新相当活跃的主要原因。在转型中国的制度创新过程中,基本制度设定的原则与精神是制度变迁的前提性约束条件,多重制度价值体系与话语体系之间的相互冲突是制度变迁的动力与源泉,各政治行动者之间的价值、权力与利益平衡是制度变迁最终得以成功实现的根本保障,制度变迁过程是一个典型的政治过程。     

市场经济条件下公安民警思想政治工作的几点思考

市场经济体制促进了我国经济的发展,但公安民警的思想政治工作却遇到了新的挑战.在新的历史条件下,思想政治工作在内容上必须做到联系实际、具体、务实,在形式上必须做到有感染力、有活力、有针对性等.     

Parties, rules and government legislative control in Central Europe: The case of Poland

A distinguishing feature of Central European polities is a strong policy-shaping role of parliaments. This article demonstrates how party political and procedural factors set the scene for the executive's loss of legislative control in Poland. Parties undermine the governmental grip because of their limited internal cohesion and competitive coalitional strategies. Parliamentary rules reinforce such party effects. The executive can shield its bills from amendments by relying mainly on partisan controls, not formal privileges. But, as an analysis of over 300 bills shows, when party discipline and coalition cooperation are in short supply, partisan controls are ineffective as instruments of legislative control.     

沃尼妙林注射液的研制

以含量测定为指标,通过均匀设计试验进行处方筛选,同时优化制备工艺;用高效液相色谱(HPLC)法对沃尼妙林注射液的含量进行检测;通过经典恒温加速试验,进行初步的稳定性试验研究.结果,优选得到的注射剂的工艺处方组成稳定.HPLC法的回收率为99.59%,检测限为0.030 4 μg/mL,定量限为0.085 2μg/mL,回归方程y=1E+06x-25 120,相关系数r2=0.999 7.结果表明,研发的沃尼妙林注射液较稳定,适合产业化生产.     

试论台海局势缓和对东北亚地区安全形势的影响

中国政府的积极努力,马英九政府对海峡两岸政策的调整,促成了台海局势由紧张对峙到逐步缓和。台海局势缓和不仅缓解了台湾岛内及国际反华分裂势力蓄意利用"台湾牌"造成的东北亚地区紧张形势;而且为海峡两岸与东北亚地区的进一步合作提供了极好的发展契机。实践证明:由于台湾地缘具有的重要性,台海局势缓和是直接关系到海峡两岸和东北亚地区的安全和稳定的重要因素。     

用社会主义核心价值体系统领高校思想政治理论课

思想政治理论课作为大学生思想政治教育的主阵地,要把社会主义核心价值体系切实融入其成长成才全过程,立足实效性,创新思想政治理论课.其中教师是关键,课堂是重点,网络是软肋,环境是难点.