From centralisation to fragmentation and back again: the role of non-state actors in Brazil’s transformed foreign policy

Abstract

Since the 1990s, Brazil’s foreign policy-making, traditionally a highly centralised and hierarchical process, has become more fragmented, plural and horizontal. In this context, the role of non-state actors has been increasingly relevant. The impact and significance of these actors have been however a matter of debate. While there are authors that consider that non-state actors play only a secondary role in the policy-making process, there are others that assert that these actors work alongside governmental actors and directly influence policy choices. Drawing on the concept of network governance, the paper proposes a different view from the two recurrent approaches in the literature mentioned above. It argues that the recent steps to transform Brazil’s state governance from hierarchy to horizontal networks have indeed expanded the room for the direct participation of non-state actors in the policy process. However, state authorities fought to adjust this tendency, in order to retain control over the decision-making process, by putting in place formal and informal coordinating mechanisms led by the Ministry of Foreign Relations and the Presidency. This suggests Brazil’s foreign policy was made in the shadow of hierarchy. The paper demonstrates the argument using the case of Brazil’s foreign policy towards China.     

司法相关权力视角下的司法改革方案

通过对指数报告进行统计数据和测试题目两个层面的分析,可以发现司法改革方案需要注意的几个问题:司法改革方案的整体性、配套性、正当性、有效性的改革方向和更多的具体课题,应充分考虑地方性的特殊因素,确保司法改革方案的讨论、确定程序的参与性。     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

政治领导与大国崛起安全

道义现实主义国际关系理论的核心原理是:决定大国兴衰的根本原因是大国的政治领导力,其本质是一国政府为适应不断变动的国际国内战略环境而进行改革的方向、决心与能力。根据道义现实主义原理,中国综合国力居世界第二位是中国制定崛起目标和策略的基础,符合国力基础的目标和战略就易于成功,而超越实力基础的目标和战略则会削弱中国的实力。道义现实主义认为,外交承诺与实力保持一致有利于提高国际战略信誉,从而减少国际社会对崛起国的恐惧和反对;为周边国家提供安全保障可获得对崛起国的战略支持;为减少崛起的国际阻力,崛起国应在新兴领域拓展利益范围而尽量避免在传统领域的利益冲突。在信息化时代,在网络空间拓展中国国际战略利益应成为中国主攻方向,网络战略应采取"走出去"原则而非为了安全的防御原则。在外部威胁不足以颠覆中国崛起的情况下,为防止中国的崛起半途夭折的重点将是防范国内的极左陷阱。"台独"正在成为中国崛起面临的首要威胁,中美在南海的战略竞争将长期化,朝鲜拥核是中国的东北亚地区政策无法回避的既成事实。     

中国古代侦查谋略探源

中国古代侦查谋略极为发达,主要原因有三个方面:一是古典哲学的产生为侦查谋略的发展奠定了理论基础;二是权谋之争和频繁的战争为侦查谋略的运用提供了实践基础;三是后人对前代的学习与继承是侦查谋略发展的力量之源.     

刘少奇对正确处理人民内部矛盾理论的贡献

刘少奇善于研究人民内部矛盾理论,他不仅较早地注意和提出了人民内部矛盾问题,而且具有许多独创性的见解,他的主要贡献体现在：最早提出“人民内部矛盾”的概念,开拓了两类矛盾学说的先河;明确指出人民内部矛盾是国内的主要矛盾;论述了人民内部矛盾的主要表现和群众闹事的原因;阐明了正确处理人民内部矛盾的途径和方法。对新时期正确认识和妥善处理人民内部矛盾、努力构建社会主义和谐社会具有重要的借鉴意义。     

邓小平《关于西南少数民族问题》的时代意义——基于构建和谐民族关系的视角

邓小平《关于西南少数民族问题》历史文献,蕴含着丰富的和谐民族关系的理论。学习和研究邓小平关于民族关系和谐的理论成果,无论是对深化构建社会主义和谐社会思想的认识,还是对推进平等、团结、互助、和谐的社会主义民族关系,都有着重要的指导意义。     

治理河流污染的制度激励悖论分析

为了治理日益加剧的河流污染,从中央到地方都相应出台了各种激励措施,但是这些措施并未起到显著效果,却形成了制度激励悖论。排污企业与地方政府在经历了新政策出台初的短暂扰动后,恢复原有均衡。要打破这一均衡,必须改变博弈各方的收益结构、可选策略集以及信息结构等,才有望建立符合科学发展观的最优均衡。     

The EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership: Waning affection,persisting economic interests

ABSTRACT

Ten years after the coming into force of the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership, this article takes stock of this partnership. Our aim, within this special issue, is to assess the EU’s perspective on its strategic partnership with South Africa, and in particular to look at economic and development cooperation within the partnership and to what extent European expectations of closer engagement have been met. Our analysis shows that economic interests have remained central to bilateral relations and the strategic partnership, even if some potential for economic engagement has remained unexploited. At the same time, the relationship has been quite tense in recent years, as bilateral ‘affection’ at the political level has waned. The implications for the partnership are weighed.