Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Medium‐Chain Acyl‐CoA Dehydrogenase Deficiency in Adulthood: A Potential Diagnosis in a Patient with Mental Status Changes Suspected of Drug Toxicity

Medium‐chain acyl‐CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency is a rare but important component of the differential diagnosis for adults with a history of premortem mental status changes and the postmortem finding of hepatic steatosis. This case report describes a 30‐year‐old white man who, following a period of nausea and vomiting, was admitted to the hospital with sudden mental status deterioration followed rapidly by clinical deterioration and death. Treating physicians in this case suspected acute illicit drug toxicity with synthetic cathinones based on social history. Clinicians and medical examiners should be aware that the presentation, signs, and symptoms described may indicate an underlying inborn error of metabolism such as MCAD deficiency and take action accordingly.     

The Use of Tooth Crown Measurements in the Assessment of Ancestry

As the hardest tissue in the body, teeth have the potential to offer a wealth of biological information to the forensic anthropologist, which can include the assessment of ancestry. Using a large data set of dental measurements, the efficacy of mesiodistal and buccolingual tooth dimensions to discriminate between broad, geographically based groups is explored. A general pattern is identified: African populations have the largest teeth, Asians possess teeth of intermediate size, and Europeans have the smallest teeth. In a discriminant function analysis using crown measurements of all teeth (mandibular and maxillary and excluding the third molar), individuals were correctly classified in 71.3% of cases. When the sex of the individual is known, classification is improved up to 88.1% in females and 71.9% of males (cross‐validated). Based on these results, we argue that dental metrics can be regularly employed as part of the development of the biological profile.     

Information Transmission Among World Major Gold Futures Markets： Evidence From High Frequency Synchronous Trading Data

This study examines the international information transmission among three major gold futures markets namely New York Mercantile Exchange in division of Commodity Exchange （COMEX）, Multi Commodity Exchange （MCX）, and Tokyo Commodity Exchange （TOCOM）. The main concept of this research is no matter where gold futures traded, they share the same underlying asset. Two well-documented approaches, which are vector error correction model and information share, are utilized to measure the process of price discovery under this trivariate system. The uniqueness of this study is that it employs synchronous intraday time series which can mitigate the stale price problem from daily observations. The evidences indicate that the three gold futures prices are cointegrated and driven by the same fundamental factors. New arrival information disseminates efficiently among the three markets and the pricing information transmission among exchanges is very rapid. However, the lead-lag relationship among markets still exists with the dominance of COMEX gold futures as the centre of price discovery The US gold futures market is the most efficient in processing information. Its role on price discovery and information can be attributed to COMEX＇s massive trading volume.     

我国行政复议制度功能定位之重新解读

行政复议制度实施的十余年里,暴露出来的问题层出不穷,制度实施的效果与民众所期待的还有相当大的距离。其中的根本原因在于对行政复议制度的功能定位模糊不清,因此,在重新定位行政复议制度功能的基础上,提出对现行行政复议制度的几点新认识。     

Physical matches of bone, shell and tooth fragments: a validation study

The following study examines the reliability of physically matching fragments of bone and other mineral-based biological materials such as shells and teeth. Participants with varying education, training, and experience were asked to complete a matching exercise consisting of intentionally fragmented specimens. Success rates were very high; the positive association (correct match) rate was 0.925, while the nonassociation (overlooked match) rate was 0.075, and negative associations (incorrect matches) occurred at a rate of just 0.001. Results also indicate that those with more education and related experience tended to have higher positive association rates, although not significant statistically. Experienced osteologists, however, completed the matching exercise in significantly less time. Low error rates among both experienced and inexperienced individuals support the reliability and validity of performing physical matches of these materials, and suggest that performance may also be related to an individual's aptitude for spatial tasks or other factors.     

论法律认识错误对刑事责任的影响

随着社会的发展和时代的进步,关于法律认识错误与刑事责任关系的传统观点开始受到人们的质疑.应本着立足于现实社会,尊重历史的精神,坚持客观、全面的观点,从理论与实践相结合的角度重新审视法律认识错误与刑事责任的关系问题.     

The Contribution of Body Mass and Volume of Distribution to the Estimated Uncertainty Associated with the Widmark Equation

The Widmark equation is used forensically for the determination of the amount of ethanol (alcohol) that may have been consumed and also to determine the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of an individual at a specific time. It is important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with Widmark equations. To date, there has been no detailed determination of contribution to the final uncertainty of Widmark calculations of the volume of distribution of ethanol (V_d), using anthropometric equations, or the contribution of an individual’s body mass. Using published data, published literature, and freedom of information data, we determined that the variability (%CV) associated with V_d was ~10% (Watson et al. and Forrest anthropometric equations) and that the %CV associated with estimated body mass was ~15% compared to ~3% when body mass was directly measured. These data allow an estimation of the overall uncertainty of Widmark calculations using general error propagation. The estimated total uncertainty for BAC calculations increased from ~11% (volume consumed) and ~22% (BAC) to ~19% (volume consumed) and ~37% (BAC) when using measured body mass compared to estimated body mass. These results demonstrate that forensic practitioners should be mindful of the increase in estimated uncertainty in calculated Widmark equation results when estimated body mass is used rather than measured body mass. These data further improve the knowledge around the uncertainty of results calculated with the Widmark equation.     

Measuring Exposure to Political Advertising in Surveys

Research on the influence of negative political advertising in America is characterized by fundamentally conflicting findings. In recent years, however, survey research using estimates of exposure based on a combination of self-reported television viewing habits and Campaign Media Analysis Group data (a database of all advertisements broadcast on national and cable television in the top 75 media markets) has argued that exposure to negative political advertising boosts interest in the campaign and turnout. This paper examines the measurement properties of self-reports of television viewing. I argue that the errors from common survey formats may both be nonrandom and larger than previously acknowledged. The nonrandom error is due to the tendency of politically knowledgeable individuals to be more sensitive to question format. Thus the inferences drawn about the relationship between political knowledge, exposure to negative ads, and political behavior are also sensitive to the measures used to estimate exposure. I demonstrate, however, that one commonly used measure of exposure—the log of estimated exposure—is not only more theoretically defensible but also alleviates some of the more serious problems due to measurement error.