Measuring subnational democracy: toward improved regime typologies and theories of regime change

Social scientists have been limited in their work by the paucity of global time series data about subnational institutions and practices. Such data could help scholars refine regime typologies, improve theories of democratization and regime change, better understand subnational democracy, and illuminate issues of development, conflict, and governance. This article addresses the lack of data by introducing 22 subnational measures from a new dataset, Varieties of Democracy. Validity tests demonstrate that the measures’ strengths outweigh their weaknesses. The measures excel in covering all subnational levels for most countries, capturing different elements of subnational elections, and including a variety of dimensions of elections and civil liberties. The measures also offer unmatched global and temporal coverage. The article demonstrates how these strengths can provide scholars with the benefits described above.     

论缓刑的法律性质--兼评缓刑考验期满后再犯罪成立累犯的合理性

缓刑在不同的刑事诉讼阶段所表现的主要特性是不同的,因而对其性质进行分阶段的界定也就有了现实的依据和合理性。从决定是否对犯罪分子宣告缓刑的意义上来说,缓刑有刑罚裁量的性质;从对犯罪分子具体适用缓刑的各项规定的意义上来说,缓刑又具有刑罚执行的性质。缓刑,兼具刑罚裁量和刑罚执行两重性质。在明确缓刑具有刑罚执行的法律性质的前提下,认定缓刑考验期满后再犯相应之罪的犯罪分子为累犯,就有了理论以及法律上的合理性。此种处置,从一般预防和特殊预防的角度来看,既符合中国社会重视行为人主观意志的现实,又能更好发挥刑罚预防犯罪的功能,也是符合我国现行刑事政策和法律规定的。     

Negotiating peace in Kosovo

We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was identified as the key mediator needed to reach a settlement We show that a European‐led settlement offered promising prospects for peace. Finally, we demonstrate that the settlement achieved after the air war was not much different than the settlement that could have been achieved at Rambouillet The settlement on Kosovo offers only short‐term stability. To gain long‐term stability, the Serbians must either agree to the existing ethnic makeup in Kosovo or allow it to be partitioned. Otherwise, conflict in this region will likely revive.     

Metrological framework for selecting morphological characters to identify species and estimate developmental maturity of forensically significant insect specimens

Accurate age estimates of immature necrophagous insects associated with a human or animal body can provide evidence of how long the body has been dead. These estimates are based on species-specific details of the insects’ aging processes, and therefore require accurate species identification and developmental stage estimation. Many professionals who produce or use identified organisms as forensic evidence have little training in taxonomy or metrology, and appreciate the availability of formalized principles and standards for biological identification. Taxonomic identifications are usually most readily and economically made using categorical and qualitative morphological characters, but it may be necessary to use less convenient and potentially more ambiguous characters that are continuous and quantitative if two candidate species are closely related, or if identifying developmental stages within a species. Characters should be selected by criteria such as taxonomic specificity and metrological repeatability and relative error. We propose such a hierarchical framework, critique various measurements of immature insects, and suggest some standard approaches to determine the reliability of organismal identifications and measurements in estimating postmortem intervals. Relevant criteria for good characters include high repeatability (including low scope for ambiguity or parallax effects), pronounced discreteness, and small relative error in measurements. These same principles apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

Key points

• Metrological rigour can increase in forensic entomology by selecting measurements based on their metrological qualities.
• Selection of high-quality features for morphological identification of organisms should consider these criteria: (1) pronounced discreteness of features (minimising group overlap or maximizing interval); (2) high repeatability of assessment (such as symmetrical width rather than asymmetrical length); (3) small relative error in measurement (selecting the physically largest continuous rigid feature for measurement).
• These metrological principles also apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

     

司法中利益衡量受到的挑战及应对——以利益主体多元化为分析背景

面对中国利益主体多元化趋势，司法中利益衡量受到的挑战主表现在利益衡量标准的模糊、“媒体审判”的干预及法律之外社会中的多元道德观念。文章从明晰利益衡量内涵开始，指出实践中所受到的挑战并提出法律对策。     

汗潜指纹的变化规律及检验

指纹是物证之首,但现场的指纹多是条件较差的模糊指纹,其中一种模糊指纹是多汗液形成的,这类指纹往往受承痕客体的润湿度,手的压力以及汗液多少的影响。研究的意义在于甄别案犯指纹,并为正确分析和鉴定指纹提供了有力的依据。     

Psychosocial Predictors of Emerging Adults' Risk and Reckless Behaviors

Past researchers have identified a range of psychosocial predictors of problem behaviors during adolescence, but have been less active in addressing this same issue in relation to the 18–25-year age group. The current study investigated risk and reckless behaviors in emerging adults using self-report measures and a cross-sectional design. Several of the major limitations associated with past research were overcome by sampling widely, making clear conceptual distinctions, avoiding confounds between predictors and criteria, developing more direct measures of key constructs, and controlling for demographic variables and for social desirability. In this sample of 375 emerging adults, risk behaviors were found to be reliably predicted by sensation seeking, but not by antisocial peer pressure, whereas the reverse pattern of association was more true in relation to reckless behaviors. Gender differences, especially in relation to the impact of social desirability considerations, are explored.     

Testing a Model of Resistance to Peer Pressure Among Mexican-Origin Adolescents

This study examined the factors associated with resistance to peer pressure toward antisocial behaviors among a sample of Mexican-origin adolescents (n=564) living in a large Southwestern city in the U.S. A model examining the influence of generational status, emotional autonomy from parents, and self-esteem on resistance to peer pressure was tested independently for boys and girls. Gender differences emerged in the factors that influenced resistance to peer pressure. Results indicated that resistance to peer pressure was influenced by generational status and emotional autonomy from parents for both boys and girls. However, self-esteem was found to influence resistance to peer pressure only for boys.Mayra Y. Bámaca is a graduate student in Family and Human Development at Arizona State University. Her research interests include adolescent development among ethnically diverse populations, the influence of contextual factors in development, parenting adolescents, and resiliency among Latino adolescents and their families. This work was based on the master’s thesis of the first author.Adriana J. Uma?a-Taylor received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri-Columbia and is currently an Assistant Professor of Family and Human Development at Arizona State University. Her research interests include ethnic identity formation during adolescence and resilience among Latino adolescents and their families.This study was supported, in part, by a grant to the second author from the Fahs Beck Fund for Research and Experimentation of the New York Community Trust.     

濒危物种保护压力下的乡村发展困境——陕西朱鹮国家级保护区的例子

陕西朱鹮国家级保护区的调查与分析表明,保护优先原则绝对化与片面化的贯彻,不仅抑制了社区和当地人的发展,而且也降低了以此为基础的保护绩效。当地社区所采用的“参与式发展”模式,存在着体制和立法等与中国广大农村现实不能完全适应的问题。这些困境都有待于关注“本土化”的人类学进行深入研究。     

法律概念的生成

在形式上,法律概念的生成大致借助继承、移植、革新和创造而完成。但这仅仅具有发生学意义。在实质上,法律概念的生成必须通过价值上的衡量而对概念之特征进行取舍。但对法律概念生成之形式与实质的区分,仅仅是一种叙事策略上的考虑,实际上,法律概念的生成,乃是一个立法者之目光来回往返于形式与内容之间的权衡与取舍过程。