Towards a New Ireland

Despite all the contemporary difficulties that we face on the island of Ireland, twenty-four years on from the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, there is a clear sense of hope for a better future. We should be optimistic for our shared future, even if we do not agree on what form that should take. We cannot discuss Northern Ireland or its future without acknowledging that Brexit has significantly shifted the conversation. Not only has it brought Anglo-Irish relations to a low not seen in the past twenty-five years, but it has also damaged the reputation of the UK internationally and brought the topic of Irish unity back to the fore of our political discourse.     

丝绸之路经济带建设中金融支持与保障研究

丝绸之路经济带建设坚持“政策沟通、道路联通、贸易畅通、货币流通、民心相通”的五通原则中,货币流通是基础和先导。开展金融合作不仅是经贸合作的基础,而且也是顺应金融市场全球化和金融监管国际化的内在要求。从微观、中观和宏观三个角度阐述金融在丝绸之路经济带建设中的支持作用,分析丝绸之路经济带建设中的金融支持面临的各种挑战,建议从开发性金融为先导引领区域金融支持;拓展人民币结算和扩大互换规模,推进区域性金融支持;推进国内金融机构的国际化水平;发展互联网金融,创新金融支持模式;建立丝路区域性国际金融中心;加强国际金融治理以及金融监管协调合作。     

新中国治安治理结构演进路径解析

新中国成立以来,我国治安治理结构经历了"磁斥结构-磁吸结构-耦合结构"的演进路径,在不同的时代背景之下,各治理结构呈现出其所特有的治理逻辑和基本特征。从认同性、社会自主性、公共性、参与性四个方面对三种治理结构进行比较分析来看,未来治安治理结构的发展规律,将在很大程度上同国家与社会间良性互动的耦合治理结构相吻合。     

Social Democracy's Muted Revival

After a long malaise, social democracy is making a muted revival. What is the place of social democracy in the political and economic order that is emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the economic crisis that has followed in its wake? Patterns have begun to emerge across the party family that are indicative of how social democracy is defining itself for the period to come. This article briefly surveys the revival of social democracy in three countries that have been historic bastions of the creed: Germany, Britain and Australia. It considers three particularly potent trends in this social democratic moment that reveal the movement's current character and the challenges it faces: building an ongoing coalition amid changing electorates; seeking transformation in an era of constraint; and a lack of ideological coherence. It considers what this muted resurgence suggests about the prospects for the centre-left.     

发达国家治理历史虚无主义的实践与启示

近年来,历史虚无主义在发达国家政治生活和舆论空间时有体现,成为不和谐因素,引起了执政当局的高度关注。为了维护意识形态安全和国家安定团结,发达国家不遗余力治理历史虚无主义,在政界、学界和新闻工作中始终强调历史清醒和"政治正确",树立底线意识;加强青少年爱国主义教育,强化历史观塑造;通过立法和司法实践,维护历史共识和民族英雄声誉;着力治理网络舆论,源头防范网络历史虚无主义。发达国家治理历史虚无主义的实践是维护资产阶级政治统治的重要举措,存在典型的"单向度思维"和不可避免的局限性,采取的一些做法对当前我国反对历史虚无主义,具有一定的借鉴意义和参考价值。     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

Intergovernmental Relations in the UK: Time for a Radical Overhaul?

Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic have put relationships between the UK government and its devolved counterparts under growing strain. Tensions generated by both of these developments have exposed the inadequacies of the existing, under-developed system for bringing governments together in the UK. The limitations of the current system include the ad hoc nature of intergovernmental meetings, and their consultative rather than decision-making character. Drawing upon an analysis of how intergovernmental relationships are structured in five other countries, the authors offer a number of suggestions for the reconfiguration of the UK model. They explore different ways of enabling joint decision making by its governments, and argue against the assumption that England can be represented adequately by the UK administration. Without a serious attempt to address this dysfunctional part of the UK’s territorial constitution, there is every prospect that relations between these different governments will continue to deteriorate.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

中日第三方市场合作的挑战与对策

作为一种创新的国际合作模式,中日第三方市场合作未来发展前景广阔,给中日双方带来巨大机遇,但推动第三方市场合作仍面临诸多挑战:两国在参与第三方市场合作项目中存在竞争惯性思维;中日第三方市场合作须应对地缘政治博弈的挑战;日本国内政治对中日第三方市场合作的"负向外溢效应";中日关于第三方市场合作项目的标准与规则的分歧;面临第三方不稳定因素的影响.为此,需要中日两国发挥各自优势,携手寻求在第三方市场的合作机会;明确两国合作的方向和目标,避免域外因素干扰,推动RCEP早日签署生效;增进中日政治互信,使中日政经关系形成相互促进的良性循环;建立长效支持促进机制,推动双方共同制定国际标准;做好第三方市场风险管控预防工作.     

中美复合战略稳定关系:建构依据、基本框架与发展趋势

中美战略稳定关系已经超越经典战略稳定性，向着复合战略稳定关系的方向演化。建构中美复合战略稳定关系是稳定两国关系的客观需要。彼此战略竞争加剧给中美之间非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性带来负面影响。在美国提高核力量于国家安全战略中的地位、将核武器重新作为霸权工具的背景下，中美战略稳定性面临挑战。特朗普政府对中国挑起贸易争端，经贸关系在中美关系中的“稳定器”和“压舱石”作用减弱，建构中美复合战略稳定关系的必要性凸显。中美之间经济深度相互依存，在维护国际体系稳定方面具有共同利益，这为建构中美复合战略稳定关系奠定了坚实的基础。中美复合战略稳定关系框架包括建立在非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性、双方经济的深度相互依存、战略互信、双方对话交流与合作机制等四根支柱，其中以非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性为核心支柱。虽然中美战略互信存在短板，但随着中国战略核力量的进步、中美经济相互依存的继续维持和双方对话交流与合作机制的成熟和完善，中美复合战略稳定关系将不断巩固。