Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Responding to the global tobacco industry: Canada and the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

Abstract: In a continuing quest to build and defend world markets for tobacco products, tobacco companies have long been involved in international cooperation and information‐sharing through their own international corporate networks, as well as through national and international industry trade associations. This is evidenced in tobacco industry corporate documents now freely available on the internet. In order to institute effective tobacco control policy, policy‐makers needed to become equally astute at sharing information across national boundaries and at considering the cross‐national implications of policy and legislation. The World Health Organization has been instrumental in developing the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and Canada has played an important part in this effort. The FCTC contains both demand‐reduction provisions and supply‐side provisions intended to reduce tobacco use worldwide. As a signatory to the FCTC, Canada has pledged to adhere to these provisions, thereby providing Canadian public administrators with effective tools to reduce tobacco use and its associated health burden both nationally and internationally. Sommaire: En cherchant continuellement à développer et à défendre les marchés mondiaux pour les produits du tabac, les sociétés productrices de tabac sont impliquées depuis longtemps dans la coopération internationale et le partage d'informations par le biais de leurs propres réseaux de sociétés internationales et d'associations professionnelles nationales et internationales. C'est ce qui ressort des documents des sociétés productrices de tabac auxquels on peut accéder librement sur Internet. Afin d'instituer une politique efficace de contrôle du tabagisme, les décideurs politiques ont dù devenir astucieux quant au partage d'informations et à l'étude des répercussions transnationales des politiques et des lois. L'Organisation mondiale de la santé a fortement contribuéà l'élaboration de la Convention‐cadre sur la lutte contre le tabagisme (CCLCT), et le Canada a joué un rôle important sur ce plan. La CCLCT contient à la fois des dispositions relatives à la réduction de la demande et d'autres relatives à l'offre qui visent à réduire la consommation de tabac dans le monde entier. En tant que pays signataire de la CCLCT, le Canada s'est engagéà respecter ces dispositions, fournissant ainsi aux administrateurs publics canadiens des outils efficaces pour réduire la consommation de tabac et le fardeau sur la santé qui lui est associéà l'échelle nationale et internationale.     

Emancipatory rural politics: confronting authoritarian populism

A new political moment is underway. Although there are significant differences in how this is constituted in different places, one manifestation of the new moment is the rise of distinct forms of authoritarian populism. In this opening paper of the JPS Forum series on ‘Authoritarian Populism and the Rural World’, we explore the relationship between these new forms of politics and rural areas around the world. We ask how rural transformations have contributed to deepening regressive national politics, and how rural areas shape and are shaped by these politics. We propose a global agenda for research, debate and action, which we call the Emancipatory Rural Politics Initiative (ERPI, www.iss.nl/erpi). This centres on understanding the contemporary conjuncture, working to confront authoritarian populism through the analysis of and support for alternatives.     

Rehumanizing Birth and Death in America

THESIS: Despite spending more on medical care than any other country in the world, the United States still boasts some of the worst patient outcomes of any developed nation. This disparity is especially true of how Americans give birth and die.  These natural human transitions have become catastrophically expensive and leave patients and their families traumatized from unnecessary interventions. This article examines the costs and outcomes associated with the medicalization of birth and death and argues that alternatives exist that improve patient outcomes while lowering costs. Access to these alternatives will require changing current regulatory and reimbursement structures and providing trained support staff to help families navigate beginning- and end-of life decisions.