警惕决策的陷阱

罗马新任教宗盖塔尼的机敏无人能比，天主教会所有主教都认为他会使梵蒂冈成为强权国家。后来盖塔尼采用卜尼法斯八世的称号，上任后不久卜尼法斯就证明他没有辜负其他枢机主教对他的高度评价。他迅速歼灭对手，统一教宗诸国。欧洲强权开始畏惧他，各自派遣代表与他协商；德意志国王、奥地利的阿尔布莱希特甚至割让一些领土给卜尼法斯。     

责任制造结果

在全球管理思潮向传统回归的背景下，那些曾经时髦的管理理论正在走向衰落，人们更加关注那些能够产生可持续、可信赖的结果的传统哲学。那么，这些哲学到底是什么呢?     

中欧亚国家民法典：一个比较性的概观

一概述在民法法系国家,民法典是确立市场经济规则的基本法律文件。它一般包括物权法、合同法、损害赔偿法以及不当得利法等重要的法律部门。在一些民法法系国家,民法典也对商事主体、自然人的权利能力、监护、家庭关系、继承以及国际私法进行调整。随着苏联的解体,市场经济的复萌,在这些新近独立的国家中,较快地采用一部新的民法典,成为一种迫切的需要。由此而进行的一系列的努力的表现即为:《俄罗斯联邦民法典》的编纂,独联体成员国议会大会支持下的《示范民法典》的制定以及对《德国民法典》的翻译和移植。虽然所有的中欧亚国家都深受原苏联法律传统的影响,但在编纂法典的既有的专家数量、对于市场经济所持的态度以及接受外援影响的深浅程度上,各国间却存在着巨大的差别。同时,由于司法操作的娴熟程度、司法官员的清廉水平的不同,各国民法典在具体实际适用中也表现各异。提交给这些国家之外的仲裁法庭进行处理的涉及外国投资者的仲裁案件是适用民法典最多,也是最重要的一     

The world population situation

Population experts appear to be reaching a consensus that there has been a perceptible decline over the last decade in the growth of the world's population. The decline is accounted for by the "new demographic transition" in the less developed countries (LDCs). The decline in fertility rates began in the 1950s in some LDCs and became more widespread during the 1970s. The process has not yet begun in many of the LDCs. During the 1960s it was observed that the declines in birth rates (to levels of 30 of less per 1000) were occurring mostly in small countries. Many of these countries were islands with levels of social and economic development above the developing country average. The key question is whether the recent downward trend in fertility in LDCs will continue, stabilize at the current level, or rise again. A primary concern about the future is that the poorer and less developed countries will end up with an increasing share of the world's population, with the share of the developed countries declining from 34% to 22% over the 1950-2000 period. Considerable differential exists in demographic growth patterns among various regions. The 12 largest LDCs (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey) contain 55% of the current world population, and the fertility decline of these nations is expected to have the maximum impact. 7 of these countries have had fertility declines of 14-35%. The force of the "population momentum" must also be considered. Most developing country populations have a young age distribution with considerable potential for population growth even after the fertility level reaches a replacement level and the net reproduction rate equals 1.     

The competition strategy for medical care

This article reviews the so-called competition strategy for medical care. It sets out the policy goals of the strategy and the problems in the present medical and insurance system that it seeks to address. It then describes several distinct formulations of the competition strategy, showing that it is not a single, rigid, monolithic approach, but rather a flexible combination of market-oriented approaches. Finally, it briefly discusses the technical and political problems and prospects of the strategy.