IS AGE IMPORTANT? TESTING A GENERAL VERSUS A DEVELOPMENTAL THEORY OF ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR*

We tested competing hypotheses derived from Gottfredson and Hirschis (1990) general theory and Moffitt's (1993a) developmental theory of antisocial behavior. The developmental theory argues that different factors give rise to antisocial behavior at different points in the life course. In contrast, the general theory maintains that the factor underlying antisocial behavior (i.e., criminal propensity) is the same at all ages. To test these competing predictions, we used longitudinal data spanning from age 5 to age 18 for the male subjects in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. Using reports from three sources (parents, teachers, and the boys themselves), we estimated second-order confirmatory factor models of antisocial behavior. These models provided consistent support for the developmental theory, showing that separate latent factors underlie childhood and adolescent antisocial behavior. Moreover, we found that these childhood and adolescent factors related in ways predicted by Moffitt's developmental theory to four correlates of antisocial behavior: Childhood antisocial behavior was related more strongly than adolescent antisocial behavior to low verbal ability, by per activity, and negative/impulsive personality, whereas adolescent antisocial behavior was related more strongly than childhood antisocial behavior to peer delinquency. The two underlying latent factors also showed the predicted differential relations to later criminal convictions: Childhood antisocial behavior was significantly more strongly associated with convictions for violence, while adolescent antisocial behavior was significantly more strongly associated with convictions for nonviolent offenses.     

Le Parlement en temps de crises politiques dans le royaume de Portugal (XIV-XVe siècles)

SUMMARY

This article focuses on the role of the Cortes in the course of two decisive moments of the Portuguese monarchy: the choice of a king on the one hand and the decision to accept a regency on the other. The Cortes of Coimbra (1385) are first analysed in the context of the political events that preceded them, in terms of the novelty of being summoned by the social forces of the kingdom, and in terms of their ideology and innovative measures. As a result, a king was chosen—King John I, the founder of the House of Avis—and reforms of a noticeable ‘constituent’ tendency were proposed. Attention is then focused on the Cortes of Lisbon (1439), which were equally unusual in their summoning and performance. There, it was decided that the infant Don Pedro, brother to the late king Don Duarte, would be in charge of the regency while the heir to the throne, Don Afonso V, was not yet of age. This prevented the queen from occupying the role the monarch had intended for her. In both cases these Cortes are very special given that they legitimated revolutionary acts which had previously taken place. This behaviour reinforces the idea that by comparison with other kingdoms in the Iberian Peninsula, the Portuguese Cortes had a strong leadership role in moments of political crisis and in the assertion of the power and social formation of the monarchy.     

RECONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SES AND DELINQUENCY: CAUSATION BUT NOT CORRELATION*

Many theories of crime have linked low levels of socioeconomic status (SES) to high levels of delinquency. However, empirical studies have consistently found weak or nonexistent correlations between individuals' SES and their self-reported delinquent behavior. Drawing upon recent theoretical innovations (Hagan et al., 1985; Jensen, 1993; Tittle, 1995), we propose that this apparent contradiction between theory and data may be reconciled by recognizing that SES has both a negative and a positive indirect effect upon delinquency that, in tandem, results in little overall correlation between the two. We tested this proposal with longitudinal data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. We used measures of parental SES recorded at study members' birth through age 15, social-psychological characteristics at age 18, and self-reported delinquency at ages 18 and 21. We found that low SES promoted delinquency by increasing individuals' alienation, financial strain, and aggression and by decreasing educational and occupational aspirations, whereas high SES promoted individuals' delinquency by increasing risk taking and social power and by decreasing conventional values. These findings suggest a reconciliation between theory and data, and they underscore the conceptual importance of elucidating the full range of causal linkages between SES and delinquency.     

母鼠妊娠期铅镉联合暴露对仔鼠脑组织的氧化损伤及乙酰半胱氨酸的保护效应

45只怀孕SD母鼠被随机分为9组,即A组(对照组,饮用蒸馏水)、B组(铅组,300 mg/L)、C组[铅 N-乙酰半胱氨酸(N-NAC)组,300 mg/L 20 mmol/L]、D组(镉组,10 mg/L)、E组(镉 NAC组,10mg/L 20 mmol/L)、F组(低剂量铅镉联合组,150 mg/L 5 mg/L)、G组(低剂量铅镉联合 NAC组,150mg/L 5 mg/L 20 mmol/L)、H组(高剂量铅镉联合组,300 mg/L 10 mg/L)、Ⅰ组(高剂量铅镉联合 NAC组,300 mg/L 10 mg/L 20 mmol/L).采用饮水染毒,染毒时间为21 d,分娩后每窝随机选取6只乳鼠测定脑匀浆超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)、乙酰胆碱酯酶(TChE)活性和丙二醛(MDA)的含量.结果表明,低剂量铅镉联合作用具有中间效应(介于铅、镉单独毒性作用之间),而高剂量铅镉联合作用表现协同或叠加效应.NAC拮抗组与染毒组比较,MDA含量显著降低,SOD、GSH-Px、TChE、CAT活性有升高趋势,说明NAC可以提高大鼠的抗氧化能力,对母鼠铅镉暴露所致新生鼠脑脂质过氧化损伤有一定的保护作用.     

ARE SOME PEOPLE CRIME-PRONE? REPLICATIONS OF THE PERSONALITY-CRIME RELATIONSHIP ACROSS COUNTRIES,GENDERS, RACES,AND METHODS*

We examined the relation between personality traits and crime in two studies. In New Zealand we studied 18-year-old males and females from an entire birth cohort. In Pittsburgh we studied an ethnically diverse group of 12- and 13-year-old boys. In both studies we gathered multiple and independent measures of personality and delinquent involvement. The personality correlates of delinquency were robust in different nations, in different age cohorts, across gender, and across race: greater delinquent participation was associated with a personality configuration characterized by high Negative Emotionality and weak Constraint. We suggest that when Negative Emotionality (the tendency to experience aversive affective states) is accompanied by weak Constraint (difficulty in impulse control), negative emotions may be translated more readily into antisocial acts. We review additional evidence about the developmental origins and consequences of this personality configuration and discuss its implications for theories about antisocial behavior.     

A Fossilised Constitution?

Abstract.  The purpose of this paper is to analyse the limits of constitutional reform. Some constitutions, for example, the German (art. 79, sec. 3), the Italian (art. 139), the Portuguese (art. 288), the French (art. 89, sec. 5), and the Brazilian (art. 60, sec. 4), contain an "essential core" of rights, which is usually understood as being immune to change. The initial focus in the paper is on the discussion on whether and to what extent these "essential cores" are indeed immune to change. A second focus is on Ross's paradox. Here I analyse and reject Ross's own solution to the paradox and I show, too, that the paradox admits no solution that does not imply a discontinuity in the legal system.     

TRENDS IN FEMALE DELINQUENCY

National arrest statistics combined with juvenile court, self-report, and field observational data are used to evaluate current conceptions of the changing nature of female delinquency. Adolescent females made arrest gains in the categories of larceny (e.g., shoplifting). liquor law violations (e.g. underage drinking), and runaways. Studies of juvenile gangs show no increase in female violence or gang-related delinquencies while self-report data show that, with the exception of marijuana use and drinking, female delinquency has remained generally stable over the past decade. We conclude that patterns of female delinquency, especially as revealed in nonofficial sources of evidence, have changed very little in recent years and that female delinquency continues to reflect traditional sex roles. The evidence suggests that the Women's Movement has had little or no effect on female delinquency. At the end of the report. we suggest alternative views regarding female delinquency and the forces shaping it.     

美国国家安全战略视阈下的中美关系50年

自1972年中美关系“破冰”以来,美国国家安全战略视阈之内的中美关系经历了1972—1989年、1989—2017年以及2017年之后三个阶段。在这三个阶段中,制衡、塑造与争胜先后成为美国对华战略的逻辑核心。在第一阶段,美国对华的国家安全战略逻辑是“借重以制衡”,即借助中国来平衡苏联,中国在20世纪80年代一度被美国视为“友好的非盟国”。在持续时间最长的第二阶段,美国的国家安全战略逻辑是通过“接触以塑造”,希望塑造中国的政治经济模式以及对外行为方式。在20世纪90年代末期中国一度被美国视为潜在的战略伙伴。在2017年以来的第三阶段,美国试图通过“竞争以制胜”,防止中国的发展超越美国,美国国家安全战略视阈内的中国以及中美关系全面转向消极。50年来,中美关系经历过两次转向和重构,目前第二次转向和重构仍在进行中。过去50年,中美关系总是关系到美国全局性国家安全利益的重大问题;美国国家安全战略中的涉华部分超越党派之争,有着较强的一致性和连贯性,很多议题和提法都长期存在,或者早有伏笔。在美国国家安全战略中,涉华议题的内容越来越多,也越来越丰富;中美关系的合作面和竞争面都有明显增长,但竞争面的比重大幅上升。     

THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL TIES ON CRIME VARY BY CRIMINAL PROPENSITY: A LIFE‐COURSE MODEL OF INTERDEPENDENCE*

Previous studies have explained the transition from criminal propensity in youth to criminal behavior in adulthood with hypotheses of enduring criminal propensity, unique social causation, and cumulative social disadvantage. In this article we develop an additional hypothesis derived from the life‐course concept of interdependence: The effects of social ties on crime vary as a function of individuals' propsensity for crime. We tested these four hypotheses with data from the Dunedin Study. In support of life‐course interdependence, prosocial ties, such as education, employment, family ties, and partnerships, deterred crime, and antisocial ties, such as delinquent peers, promoted crime, most strongly among low self‐control individuals. Our findings bear implications for theories and policies of crime.     

国家治理逻辑与农民生存选择——基于农民矿工的行为分析

农民矿工的职业选择是由其生存境况决定的。在推行赶超战略过程中,国家为能从农村提取经济资源并保持政治稳定,在给予农民生存保障的同时,也对其行动自由进行限制;由于无法掌控命运,只要还能维持生存,农民一般会对国家表示忠诚和顺从。由于近乎于零的机会成本和濒临生存线的高边际效用,部分贫困农民不得不从事诸如煤矿采掘这样一些充满危险的工作。法律保障的缺失、行动能力的弱小,使得农民矿工无力有效维护其基本权利。