Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions

In many countries, important features of municipal government (such as the electoral system, mayors' salaries, and the number of councillors) depend on whether the municipality is above or below arbitrary population thresholds. Several papers have used a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to measure the effects of these threshold‐based policies on political and economic outcomes. Using evidence from France, Germany, and Italy, we highlight two common pitfalls that arise in exploiting population‐based policies (compound treatment and sorting), and we provide guidance for detecting and addressing these pitfalls. Even when these problems are present, population‐threshold RDD may be the best available research design for studying the effects of certain policies and political institutions.     

STR analysis of artificially degraded DNA-results of a collaborative European exercise

Degradation of human DNA extracted from forensic stains is, in most cases, the result of a natural process due to the exposure of the stain samples to the environment. Experiences with degraded DNA from casework samples show that every sample may exhibit different properties in this respect, and that it is difficult to systematically assess the performance of routinely used typing systems for the analysis of degraded DNA samples. Using a batch of artificially degraded DNA with an average fragment size of approx. 200 bp a collaborative exercise was carried out among 38 forensic laboratories from 17 European countries. The results were assessed according to correct allele detection, peak height and balance as well as the occurrence of artefacts. A number of common problems were identified based on these results such as strong peak imbalance in heterozygous genotypes for the larger short tandem repeat (STR) fragments after increased PCR cycle numbers, artefact signals and allelic drop-out. Based on the observations, strategies are discussed to overcome these problems. The strategies include careful balancing of the amount of template DNA and the PCR cycle numbers, the reaction volume and the amount of Taq polymerase. Furthermore, a careful evaluation of the results of the fragment analysis and of automated allele calling is necessary to identify the correct alleles and avoid artefacts.     

Assessment of forensic findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods—“Blame-the-brother”-syndrome

Assessment of forensic findings with likelihood ratios is for several cases straightforward, but there are a number of situations where contemplation of the alternative explanation to the evidence needs consideration, in particular when it comes to the reporting of the evidentiary strength. The likelihood ratio approach cannot be directly applied to cases where the proposition alternative to the forwarded one is a set of multiple propositions with different likelihoods and different prior probabilities. Here we present a general framework based on the Bayes' factor as the quantitative measure of evidentiary strength from which it can be deduced whether the direct application of a likelihood ratio is reasonable or not. The framework is applied on DNA evidence in forms of an extension to previously published work. With the help of a scale of conclusions we provide a solution to the problem of communicating to the court the evidentiary strength of a DNA match when a close relative to the suspect has a non-negligible prior probability of being the source of the DNA.     

On non-invasive 2D and 3D Chromatic White Light image sensors for age determination of latent fingerprints

The feasibility of 2D-intensity and 3D-topography images from a non-invasive Chromatic White Light (CWL) sensor for the age determination of latent fingerprints is investigated. The proposed method might provide the means to solve the so far unresolved issue of determining a fingerprints age in forensics. Conducting numerous experiments for an indoor crime scene using selected surfaces, different influences on the aging of fingerprints are investigated and the resulting aging variability is determined in terms of inter-person, intra-person, inter-finger and intra-finger variation. Main influence factors are shown to be the sweat composition, temperature, humidity, wind, UV-radiation, surface type, contamination of the finger with water-containing substances, resolution and measured area size, whereas contact time, contact pressure and smearing of the print seem to be of minor importance. Such influences lead to a certain experimental variability in inter-person and intra-person variation, which is higher than the inter-finger and intra-finger variation. Comparing the aging behavior of 17 different features using 1490 time series with a total of 41,520 fingerprint images, the great potential of the CWL technique in combination with the binary pixel feature from prior work is shown. Performing three different experiments for the classification of fingerprints into the two time classes [0, 5h] and [5, 24h], a maximum classification performance of 79.29% (kappa=0.46) is achieved for a general case, which is further improved for special cases. The statistical significance of the two best-performing features (both binary pixel versions based on 2D-intensity images) is manually shown and a feature fusion is performed, highlighting the strong dependency of the features on each other. It is concluded that such method might be combined with additional capturing devices, such as microscopes or spectroscopes, to a very promising age estimation scheme.     

Leaking,leak prevention,and decoupling in public administrations: the case of the European Commission

Abstract

The European Commission is frequently faced with leaks, much like other public administrations in Western democracies. While executive leaders often criticise the practice of leaking as an unwanted breach of confidentiality and secrecy, leak prevention is usually not taken seriously compared to the scale of the phenomenon. This article discusses leaking and leak prevention more broadly and analyses the efforts of the European Commission to prevent leaks. It finds that leaking and leak prevention were regularly discussed at the highest level of the EU’s executive between 2006 and 2015. However, few Commission officials have been sanctioned for leaking in that period, and mostly for leaks that appear unrelated to the substance of those discussed at the political level. This mismatch is explained by a decoupling of talk and action regarding leak prevention, allowing the European Commission and other public administrations to manage inconsistencies in competing internal and external demands for openness and confidentiality.     

The power of Trump-speak: populist crisis narratives and ontological security

Abstract

For most observers, the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States (US) came as a shock. This has been widely recast as the culmination of the American public’s long-standing dissatisfaction with the political elite and deep-seated frustrations with broader socio-economic conditions. We argue that the Trump campaign’s success also stemmed from its effective use of an emotionally charged, anti-establishment crisis narrative. With insights from political psychology, we examine the socio-linguistic mechanisms that underlie the effectiveness of ‘Trump-speak’ through both quantitative and qualitative content analysis of Trump’s communications toolkit during the 2016?US presidential election campaign. We show that his leadership legitimation claims rest significantly upon ‘crisis talk’ that puts his audience in a loss frame with nothing to lose and explain why ‘crisis talk’ impacts on political behaviour. As we demonstrate, the crisis stories that political agents tell simultaneously instil ontological insecurity among the American public and serve to transform their anxiety into confidence that the narrator’s policy agendas are the route back to ‘normality’. Through these rhetorical mechanisms, the Trump campaign manipulated individuals’ ontological (in)security as a tool in the politics of reassurance at the broader, societal level.     

POLITIC OF LAW OF GROUND WATER EXPLOITATION

One of Indonesia characters is welfare state, reflected in Republic Indonesia Constitution in 1945 （UUD NRI year 1945） on Preamble paragraph 4 mentioning the general welfare is the primary aim of the state. Provision of Article 33 paragraph （2）, （3）, and （4） UUD NRI year 1945 as lives of many people that natural resources inform of water for the greatest prosperity of people＇s and controlled by state. This is in line with the Constitution Act No. 7 year 2004 on water resources, focus on welfare of people and based on the reflection of democracy spirit. Based on the constitution of Local Government Act No. 32 year 2004, the important role to support the achievement of social welfare problems associated with water （ground water）, is crucial. However, the Presidential Decree RI No. 36 year 2010 which provides space for the foreigners to invest in water exploitation orientation, and there was interest~politic of law, so the local government at the beginning prioritize on the welfare of the local people turned into the realm of economic interest to revenue for local government. Based on the statement above, so the problems of people＇s welfare, democracy and justice are neglected.     

Belgian population data for 15 STR loci (AmpFlSTR SGM Plus and AmpFlSTR profiler PCR amplification kit)

The allele and genotype distributions for 15 STR loci included in the AmpFlSTR SGM Plus and AmpFlSTR Profiler kits (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, USA) were determined in a sample of 222 unrelated individuals of Belgian origin.     

Sex education for emotionally disturbed adolescents

Under investigation were effects of a course in sex education on a population of emotionally disturbed adolescents who were enrolled as day patients in a school program that is part of the Adolescent Treatment Program of the Institute of Pennsylvania Hospital. Pre- and posttesting of knowledge and attitudes and staff observation were used to measure changes. The results of the study indicated that patients responded age appropriately and gained knowledge and an increased openness about sexuality issues. In addition, there was no regression nor dysfunction as a result of the materials presented, and therapeutic and educational processes were not disrupted by the patients' involvement in the course. It was concluded that a sex education course is clinically and educationally useful on many levels within a therapeutic setting.Received M.S. from University of Pennsylvania. Research interests: Special education, Sex education.Received M.D. from Temple University School of Medicine. Research interests: Psychopathology of adolescence, treatment of seriously disturbed adolescents.Received Ph.D. from Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Research interests: Sexuality education.