The impact of campaign expenditures on political competition in the French legislative elections of 1993

We use regression analysis to estimate the effect that campaign money had on the votes of challengers and incumbents in the 1993 elections to the French legislative assembly. Incumbent candidates can at best expect to win 1.01% of the popular vote for each extra franc they spend per registered voter in their district. Challengers can expect to win at least twice as much as this. Simulations show that if campaign spending ceilings were halved, incumbents would have gained an extra ten percent of the popular vote over their closest challenging rivals. The regression analysis also suggests that voters react negatively to candidates who rely heavily on their own money for their outlays and reward candidates who rely on contributions from private individuals. These results suggest that campaign spending ceilings may inhibit political competition, and that voters may resist a candidate who relies on narrow sources of funding.     

Grammar,context and power: securitization of the 2010 Belgrade Pride Parade

In the wake of the 2010 Belgrade Pride Parade, right-wing extremists portrayed the event as a threat to public morals, while liberals framed homophobia as a threat to democracy. While these moves managed to polarize and mobilize the public, the government didn’t heed their calls to adopt extraordinary measures. The Parade took place on 10 October and the extremists organized unchecked violent counter-demonstrations. By drawing on Securitization Theory, we triangulate content and discourse analysis to understand why these securitizing moves had a low success. Our analysis shows that although both moves followed the grammar of security, they were only partially embedded into the wider discursive context and were not enunciated by securitizing actors with strong positional power.     

Can repressive regimes be moderated through foreign aid?

In what circumstances should foreign aid be given to less developed countries with repressive rulers? Repressive rulers are assumed to control the national income and to trade it against the probability of staying in office which is assumed in turn to depend positively on popular wealth and repression. A foreign donor aware of this process of optimization will pursue his international objectives by attaching conditions to his aid that alter the relative price of repression and popular wealth in the calculations of the tyrant. The effectiveness of direct and in-kind aid and the desirability of a “carrot an stick” aid policy depend on the direct and the interactive effects that popular wealth, repression, and the parameters of economic growth exert on the regime's stability and its level of income.     

The Downsian voter meets the ecological fallacy

This paper presents evidence that voter participation does not depend on the probability that one vote is decisive. An extensive summary of the empirical participation literature is provided which shows that most but not all studies have found that turnout in an electoral district is higher when the race is closer. Individual-level vote regressions for the 1979 and 1980 Canadian national elections are estimated using objective measures of closeness (as opposed to self-reported measures). The main finding is that a citizen is no more likely to vote in a close election than in a lands-lide election. District-level turnout regressions for the same elections are also estimated, and a significant relation between closeness and turnout is observed. This suggests that aggregation bias may generate a spurious closeness-turnout relation in district-level regressions.     

Voter turnout: How much can we explain?

This paper evaluates the ability of common explanatory variables to predict who votes. Logit voting regressions are estimated with more than three dozen explanatory variables using survey and aggregate data for the 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 Canadian national elections. We find that the usual demographic variables such as age and education, and contextual variables such as campaign spending have significant effects on the probability of voting, but the models have low R2's and cannot predict who votes more accurately than random guessing. We also estimate regressions using past voting behavior as a predictor of current behavior, and find that although the explanatory power rises it remains low. This suggests that the difficulty in explaining turnout arises primarily from omitted time- varying variables. In some sense, then, it appears that whether or not a person votes is to a large degree random. The evidence provides support for the rational voter theory, and is problematic for psycho/sociological approaches.     

A Multidimensional Approach to Intergenerational Balance Measurement: A Cross-Sectional Study for European Countries

Social Justice Research - The demographic shift experienced by developed countries inevitably results in a change in intergenerational relations. However, despite some attempts to evaluate...     

General and maladaptive traits and anger in a combined forensic psychiatric and general population sample

The present study examines the associations between anger and general and maladaptive traits in a combined forensic psychiatric and community sample of men. Thirty-four male forensic psychiatric patients and 219 men from the general population completed the Novaco Anger Scale (NAS; Novaco, 1994), the NEO-PI-R (Costa & McCrae, 1992), the ADP-IV (Schotte & De Doncker, 1994) and the VKP (Duijsens, Haringsma, & EurelingsBontekoe, 1999) at two measurement occasions with a one-year interval. The results of a series of multiple regression analyses showed that general and maladaptive traits accounted for a substantial amount of variance in anger scores. Neuroticism, Agreeableness and Externalizing traits were most prominent in the prediction of anger, while Conscientiousness was acting as a suppressor variable in the regression models. Strengths and limitations of the present study and implications for further research and clinical practice are discussed.     

Contextualising City-regional Issues,Strategies and their Use: the Flemish Story

This paper presents a contextualised analysis of what might be called the city-regional debate. The debate is unfolded in terms of four types of city-regional issues, eight common strategies to tackle the latter and the use thereof in Flanders. It is concluded that the way in which city-regional issues are dealt with in Flanders can be explained by its regime, consisting of an administrative, political and cultural dimension, in terms of a centralistic policy style combined with a weak institutional position of local governments, by a ‘localisation’ of regional politics and policies, both dominated by an anti-urban bias.     

Discriminating red spray paints by optical microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence

Red spray paints from different European suppliers were characterised to determine the discriminating power of a sequence of analysing techniques. A total of 51 red spray paints were analysed with the help of three techniques: (1) optical microscopy, (2) Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and (3) X-ray fluorescence. Infrared spectra were classified according to binder type, filler and pigment composition and a searchable spectral library was created. Due to the difference in the elemental composition of spray paints, a further discrimination was possible. The microscopic analysis was not taken into consideration for classification purposes. The structure of the substrate under a paint coating strongly affects the surface characteristics of this spray paint. Together with the spectral library, a database of information of spray paints was build.