A House Divided? Roll Calls,Polarization, and Policy Differences in the U.S. House, 1877–2011

The study of political conflict in legislatures is fundamental to understanding the nature of governance, but also difficult because of changes in membership and the issues addressed over time. Focusing on the enduring issue of civil rights in the United States since Reconstruction, we show that using current methods and measures to characterize elite ideological disagreements makes it hard to interpret or reconcile the conflicts with historical understandings because of their failure to adequately account for the policies being voted upon and the consequences of the iterative lawmaking process. Incorporating information about the policies being voted upon provides a starkly different portrait of elite conflict—not only are contemporary parties relatively less divided than is commonly thought, but the conflict occurs in a smaller, and more liberal, portion of the policy space. These findings have important implications for a broad range of work that uses elite actions to compare political conflict/polarization across time.     

An Early Community-Based Intervention for the Prevention of Substance Abuse and Other Delinquent Behavior

This paper presents the results of an evaluation of an early intervention, risk-reduction strategy versus a standard intervention approach in the treatment of inner-city youth at high risk of adopting a deviant lifestyle. It examines baseline and 1-year follow-up information provided by 408 youth admitted to 2 community-based Baltimore City Youth Bureaus offering counseling services for neighborhood youth referred for delinquent and other problematic behavior. In the study, one of these bureaus served as the experimental intervention clinic and the other as the control, or standard intervention, clinic. Outcome measures involved substance abuse; sexual activity; contact with juvenile authorities; and delinquent activity, including violence-related activity. Regression analyses of outcome measures revealed significant differential results for delinquent activity, which favored the experimental intervention. Relationships between risk/protective factors and outcome are discussed.     

Was ``V' for Victory or Votes? A Public Choice Analysis of World War II Federal Spending

Several studies on the New Deal have found that politicalfactors played a significant role in determining 1930s federalspending. This suggests that federal spending was not capturedby special interest groups and self-interested politiciansrecently, but rather, that it has been affected by thesefactors since the ``era of big government'' began. We examinethe military emergency of the 1940s to determine whetherfederal spending during this crisis was similarly affected bypolitics.     

A developmental approach to historical causal inference

Public Choice - Empirical historical research typically falls into one of three categories: the study of major historical events; the use of “history as data” to test general theories;...     

Perils of the Deep: The Dangers of Submarine Proliferation in the Seas of East Asia

Abstract

Greater numbers of submarines are being acquired in the Asia-Pacific. This development poses challenges in the region for preventive diplomacy, maritime confidence building, and ensuring the safety of submarine operations. However, countries are extremely sensitive about submarine operations and meeting these challenges will be difficult. The article discusses technological developments with submarines and antisubmarine warfare and the implications for regional naval operations. It identifies the risks associated with increased numbers of submarines, particularly in the narrow seas of East Asia, and recommends measures that might mitigate the adverse consequences of submarine proliferation, including enhancing submarine safety. It concludes that there is a pressing need to start discussion of these measures in regional forums.