Reply to Mac Giolla and Ly (2019): On the reporting of Bayes factors in deception research

Bayes factors provide a continuous measure of evidence for one hypothesis (e.g., the null, H0) relative to another (e.g., the alternative, H1). Warmelink et al. (2019, Legal Criminol Psychol, 24, 258) reported Bayes factors alongside p‐values to draw inferences about whether the order of expected versus unexpected questions influenced the amount of details interviewees provided during an interview. Mac Giolla & Ly (2019) provided several recommendations to improve the reporting of Bayesian analyses and used Warmelink et al. (2019) as a concrete example. These included (I) not to over‐rely on cut‐offs when interpreting Bayes factors; (II) to rely less on Bayes factors, and switch to ‘nominal support’; and (III) to report the posterior distribution. This paper elaborates on their recommendations and provides two further suggestions for improvement. First, we recommend deception researchers report Robustness Regions to demonstrate the sensitivity of their conclusions to the model of H1 used. Second, we demonstrate a method that deception researchers can use to estimate, a priori, the sample size likely to be required to provide conclusive evidence.     

Coordination and control in Russia’s foreign policy: travails of Putin’s curators in the near abroad

Abstract

This article seeks to challenge the conception of the Russian state as being centred on Vladimir Putin by looking at the actors implementing Russia’s foreign policy in its near abroad. In particular, it explores the activities of curators (kuratory), a term applied in Russia to describe officials tasked with making things work often bypassing, and sometimes competing with, formal institutions. Following the state transformation framework, the argument put forward in the article is that curation (kuratorstvo), as a practice of coordination and control in Russia’s system of governance, can be seen as a manifestation of fragmentation and internationalisation of Russia’s foreign policy making. The empirical basis for this article is a case study of Russia’s policy towards Abkhazia, which Russia officially recognised as a sovereign state in 2008. This article addresses the involvement of curators in their attempts to exert political influence as an expression of fragmentation as well as emerging institutionalised curation in development assistance as a part of internationalisation.     

Insect succession and carrion decomposition in selected forests of Central Europe. Part 3: Succession of carrion fauna

The succession of insects on pig carrion was monitored in spring, summer and autumn, in three forest types and 2 years in Western Poland (Central Europe). In most forensically useful taxa, significant differences between seasons, forests and years in time of appearance on carrion were found. The lowest values of appearance time were recorded in summer and the highest in spring. In alder forest insects appeared on carcasses significantly earlier than in pine-oak forest and hornbeam-oak forest. In summer periods of insect presence on carrion were significantly shorter than in spring and autumn. In most taxa no significant effect of forest type or year on length of the presence period was found. In all seasons assemblages of adult taxa were clearly more aggregated than assemblages of larval taxa. Sequence of insects' appearance on carcasses was very similar in different seasons, forests and years. General seasonal models of insect succession on carrion are proposed for forests of Central Europe. Data on appearance time and length of the presence period in particular seasons, forests and years are presented for forensically useful taxa. Implications for methods of PMI estimation (particularly the succession-based method) are discussed.     

Mentally ill offenders eligible for diversion at local court in New South Wales (NSW), Australia: factors associated with initially successful diversion

Diversion away from the criminal justice system and into mental health treatment services is a key strategy for addressing the well-established burden of mental illness suffered by those presenting to court. While mental health courts, court liaison and court diversion services have been developed in many jurisdictions internationally, there is limited research evidence to support their effectiveness in identifying those with mental health need and achieving successful diversion. The Statewide Community and Court Liaison Service in New South Wales, Australia, identifies mentally ill offenders likely to meet legal eligibility criteria for diversion at the busiest local courts across the state. Utilising data collected by mental health clinicians working in the service, 8317 individuals were identified as being eligible for court diversion on at least one occasion during the study period (1 July 2008 and the 30 June 2015) and 57.3% were subsequently diverted by Magistrates. Successful diversion at this first step was associated with being female, older, of non-Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander background, and having a serious mental illness, replicated when stratified by sex and by Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander background. There may be barriers to mental health diversion at court for individuals with particular socio-demographic characteristics which future service developments may need to take into account.     

An initial study of insect succession and carrion decomposition in various forest habitats of Central Europe

At the end of summer and beginning of fall 2005 insect succession and pig carrion decomposition were studied in pine-oak forest, hornbeam-oak forest, and alder forest in Western Poland (Central Europe). Five stages of decomposition were recognized: fresh stage, bloated stage, active decay stage, advanced decay stage, and remains stage. The highest rate of decomposition was observed in the alder forest and the lowest in the pine-oak forest. A similar composition of carrion entomofauna was found in each forest. Numerous adults of Lucilia caesar, Phormia regina and Calliphora vomitoria (Calliphoridae), Hydrotaea spp. (Muscidae), Stearibia nigriceps and Parapiophila vulgaris (Piophilidae), Necrodes littoralis and Thanatophilus rugosus (Silphidae), Creophilus maxillosus, Omalium rivulare, Oxypoda acuminata and Philonthus spp. (Staphylinidae) as well as larvae of L. caesar, P. regina, C. vomitoria, Fannidae (Diptera) and N. littoralis, C. maxillosus, Philonthus (Coleoptera) were collected. There were no differences between forests in the sequence of insect occurrence on carrion. However, differences between forests in occurrence time and activity period of some taxa were found. Implications of these results for forensic entomology are discussed.     

Is the USSR dead? Experience from the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009

The paper examines the economic linkages between the post-Soviet states from the point of view of the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. It aims to find out whether the interdependence between the countries of the former Soviet Union is still large enough that crises in individual countries affect the economic development in the neighboring states, and assesses the impact of the crisis itself on the linkages between the former Soviet republics. The evidence is mixed: while some channels of interdependence deteriorated over the last decade, others became more important, and some were even strengthened by the crisis itself.