The politics of return: exploring the future of Syrian refugees in Jordan,Lebanon and Turkey

Abstract

Although the Syrian conflict continues, local and global stakeholders have already begun to consider the return of the six million refugees, especially as neither the option of local integration in the countries of first asylum nor that of resettlement to third countries is seen as a realistic possibility. Elaborating on the return debates in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, we relate the politicisation of this question to the growing acceptance of the option of voluntary and involuntary repatriation in the international refugee regime as well as to policies and public opinion. We argue, based on empirical fieldwork, that any debate about the return of Syrian refugees is problematic, since the conditions of safety, voluntariness and sustainability are not fulfilled. Further, returns should not be left entirely to the individual hosting states and actors in the region but should be carried out in collaboration with representative authorities in Syria and the mediation of international organisations upon full resolution of conflict.     

Contribution à une analyse narrative de la théorie institutionnelle

Conclusion Que faut-il penser de la co-existence de trois modèles différents pour interpréter l'élément central de la théorie institutionnelle de MacCormick? Cette pluralité de modèles n'est source de perturbations que pour ceux qui tiennent à défendre l'idée selon laquelle il n'y a qu'une seule forme possible de discours juridique. Dès qu'il est accepté — comme hypothèse de base — que les formes d'organisation de ce type de discours peuvent être multiples, la perspective est inversée.C'est le schéma explicatif — dit schéma narratif — qui est alors unique. Quant aux différentes variantes de la formule de MacCormick, elles représentent les altérations de cette définition en fonction de paramètres identifiables — et identifiés — comme le statut des différents actants et acteurs, la définition de l'objet de valeur final dont ils cherchent à s'emparer et les objets de valeur d'usage dont ils se servent.L'éclatement de la formule de Maccormick ne correspond alors plus à un rejet mais bien à une mise en question. Cette remise en question débouchant sur la reconnaissance de plusieurs schémas narratifs, nous devons nous demander dans quelle mesure notre perception de la phasep correspond à l'idée que s'en fait MacCormick. S'agit-il seulement de la procédure au sens juridique du mot ou de tout un ensemble d'actes permettant de persuader un destinateur comme un juge ou une administration de la coïncidence entre un parcours narratif effectif et le type idéal de parcours narratif qu'ils tirent de la lecture des normes juridiques?S'il s'agit bien de la procédure au sens juridique de ce mot, il faut alors préciser au terme de cette analyse sémio-narrative que l'ensemble des phénomènes pragmatiques — comme les interactions dans le cas d'une procédure orale — ne sont pris en compte ni par la formule de MacCormick, ni par la présente discussion mais qu'ils relèvent d'une recherche particulière sur cette dimension supplémentaire, certes compatible avec la théorie sémiotique mais pas avec la théorie institutionnelle de MacCormick. Pour conclure, nous dirons donc qu'il est possible d'intégrer certains éléments de cette dernière théorie dans un cadre plus général mais qu'elle sera vite transformée à la fois de l'intérieur par la reconnaissance d'une pluralité des formes du discours et de l'extérieur par son intégration partielle dans un schéma plus large qui vise à décrire un phénomène dans son intégralité.     

Rethinking the Tunisian miracle: a party politics view

Five years on from the Tunisian revolution, Tunisia stands as the sole success story of the Arab Spring. The country since then has managed to adopt a pluralist and democratic constitution, and held three free and fair elections. Accordingly, in the eyes of several observers, Tunisia is now in the process of consolidating its new democracy. However, the reality on the ground seems much gloomier, as most recent opinion surveys suggest that there is a significant degree of dissatisfaction, not only with political parties and Parliament but also with the very institution of democracy. Nevertheless, what accounts for this change? After the collapse of the long-lasting and oppressive Ben Ali regime, how, just in five years, has Tunisians’ confidence in the democratic process changed? This article accounts for this state of affairs from a party politics view, arguing that political parties, which are the main protagonists of the consolidation process, fail to fulfill their role of acquiring legitimacy for the new regime. While party–state relations seem to be stabilized due to the inclusiveness of the constitution-making process, both inter-party relationships and the relationship between parties and society suffer from numerous flaws which, in turn, hamper the democratic consolidation process.     

Defected and loyal? A case study of counter-defection mechanisms inside Chechen paramilitaries

Can former insurgents in the service of counterinsurgent paramilitaries be considered a perfectly loyal force? What mechanisms may help to deter subsequent defections of individuals who have already “betrayed” once? Drawing on a unique set of primary data, this article examines the effective counter-defection practices of Chechnya’s pro-Moscow paramilitaries toward prospective defectors from among ex-insurgents. It explores three interwoven mechanisms employed with various intensities to avert “double defections” at the peak of the locally fought counterinsurgency in Chechnya from 2000 to 2005. These mechanisms are: a) extrajudicial executions of recidivists and their relatives, b) initiation violence targeting insurgents’ relatives, and c) disclosure of the identities of defected insurgents who were responsible for killing insurgents in combat to the families of slain insurgents.     

Quality of democracy in unrecognized states: lessons from Northern Cyprus

Scholars have recently debated whether non-recognition is a blessing or a curse for democracy. Some suggest that lack of recognition forces political elites to democratize and acquire internal legitimacy to compensate for the lack of external legitimacy. Others suggest that democratization is used as a strategy by which to acquire international recognition. Still others claim that non-recognition obliges unrecognized states to rely on a patron state which, in turn, hinders the quality of democracy. To contribute to this discussion, we have conducted an in-depth case study. Focusing on democratic quality in Northern Cyprus from 2010 to 2016, it is observed that reliance on a patron state leads to dynamics of tutelage, in turn hindering the quality of democracy.     

State Capacity,Bureaucratic Politicization,and Corruption in the Brazilian State

Responding to recent articles in Governance highlighting the need for improved measurement of bureaucratic characteristics, this article describes efforts to map Brazil's federal agencies on three dimensions—capacity, autonomy, and partisan dominance—derived from data on more than 326,000 civil servants. The article provides a “proof of concept” about the utility of agency‐level measures of these variables, demonstrating how they relate to an output common to all agencies: corruption. The article provides a first step in the direction of building a comparative research program that offers objective evaluation of bureaucracies within nation‐states, with the intent of better disentangling their impact on governance outcomes.     

Culture on the Rise: How and Why Cultural Membership Promotes Democratic Politics

Selectively using Tocqueville, many social scientists suggest that civic participation increases democracy. We go beyond this neo-Tocquevillian model in three ways. First, to capture broader political and economic transformations, we consider different types of participation; results change if we analyze separate participation arenas. Some are declining, but a dramatic finding is the rise of arts and culture. Second, to assess impacts of participation, we study more dimensions of democratic politics, including distinct norms of citizenship and their associated political repertoires. Third, by analyzing global International Social Survey Programme and World Values Survey data, we identify dramatic subcultural differences: the Tocquevillian model is positive, negative, or zero in different subcultures and contexts that we explicate.     

Winning, Losing and Satisfaction with Democracy

Previous research has shown that those who won an election are more satisfied with the way democracy works than those who lost. What is not clear, however, is whether it is the fact of winning (losing), per se, that generates (dis)satisfaction with democracy. The current study explores this winner/loser gap with the use of the 1997 Canadian federal election panel study. It makes a theoretical and methodological contribution to our understanding of the factors that foster satisfaction with democracy. At the theoretical level, we argue that voters gain different utility from winning at the constituency and national levels in a parliamentary system, and that their expectations about whether they will win or lose affect their degree of satisfaction with democracy. On the methodological front, our analysis includes a control group (non-voters) and incorporates a control for the level of satisfaction prior to the election. The results indicate that the effect of winning and losing on voters' satisfaction with democracy is significant even when controlling for ex ante satisfaction before the election takes place, and that the outcome of the election in the local constituency matters as much as the outcome of the national election. They fail to show, however, that expectations about the outcome of the election play a significant role in shaping satisfaction with democracy.     

Population genetics of nine short tandem repeat loci: allele frequency distribution in a Brazilian population sample

Gene and genotype frequencies in relation to the D3S1358, vWA, FGA, TH01, TPOX, CSF1PO, D5S818, D13S317, and D7S820 loci were determined in a sample of 290 unrelated individuals (204 Caucasians and 86 mulattoes) living in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The sex test Amelogenin was also performed in all subjects from our sample, revealing the expected sex in all instances. Allele frequency data obtained from the analysis of these samples were in the usual range of other population groups with similar racial background. In the sample of Caucasian individuals, panmictic proportions were ruled out in relation to TPOX and CSF1PO loci, but only in the latter was the overall frequency of heterozygotes significantly less than expected. In the sample of mulattoes, Hardy-Weinberg proportions were rejected in relation to FGA and CSF1PO loci, but in no instance were the overall numbers of heterozygotes different from the corresponding expected ones under panmixia. Taking into account all this and also the number of tests performed, the degree of genetic heterogeneity of Brazilian populations, and the critical level reached by the significant results (1% < alpha<5%), the departures from panmixia here observed can be considered to be negligible in altering significantly biologic relationship odds calculated under the assumption of random matings.