Explaining and predicting coalition outcomes: Conclusions from studying data on local coalitions

Abstract. Because the importance of coalition formation has been long established, there is no shortage of ideas explaining and predicting coalition outcomes. However, one of the problems for contemporary coalition research is that most coalition theories have been thoroughly tested on the same data on national governments that have formed in the West European postwar democracies. This stresses the need for finding new data that can increase our ability to test and refine coalition theories. This article uses unique elite survey data from an investigation conducted among councilors in a large sample of local authorities in Sweden to test hypotheses on coalition formation.
Another problem in coalition research is that the large number of coalition hypotheses have not been tested extensively using multivariate models that provide sufficient controls. By using a methodological approach that models government formation as a discrete choice between potential governments, we can draw conclusions about the relative importance of different types of variables. The results found in this analysis indicate that we have to pay attention to both traditional variables, such as size and policy, and institutional variables if our aim is to explain and predict coalition formation.     

Why so few, and why so late? Green parties and the question of governmental participation

Abstract.  Green parties have been represented in the parliaments of European Union countries since 1981, but it was not until recently that a few have entered national governments. Using a data set comprised of 51 government formation opportunities (where the Greens were represented in parliament), the authors of this article show that the parties involved in these bargaining situations are more office-oriented than earlier studies had found. As Green parties are seen to be less office-seeking than other parties, this general tendency for office-seeking behaviour in government formation may partly account for the scarcity of Greens in government. Furthermore, a number of hypotheses derived from theories that account for the specific nature of Green parties in terms of their office-, policy- and vote-seeking orientations are tested. It is found that Greens participate in government when they have lost votes in at least one election, when the main party of the left identifies them as a clear electoral threat and when the policy distance between the Greens and either the formateur party or the main left party is small (the latter condition must be accompanied by a substantial proportion of seats for the Green party in parliament). As most of these simultaneous conditions only materialized recently, and in a few countries, it is argued that this analysis, which is the first comparative and multivariate test focused on this question, explains the scarcity and the delay of Green governmental participation.     

A deadly anti-SIDS device

The diagnosis of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) has been an enigma to medical examiners and coroners for decades. The recent drastic decrease in the number of SIDS cases has been associated with infants sleeping supine instead of prone. The apparent relation between sleeping position and SIDS has led to the marketing of several positioning sleep aids. We report a case of the improper use of one such device which resulted in the death of an infant.     

Measurement Properties of the Communities That Care<Superscript>®</Superscript> Youth Survey Across Demographic Groups

Prevention science has produced information about risk and protective factors that predict adolescent drug use and related problem behaviors. This paper investigates the Communities That Care Youth Survey that measures multiple risk and protective factors. Using a sample of 172,628 students who participated in surveys administered in seven states in 1998, analyses were conducted to test the factor structure of these risk and protective factors and to test the equivalence of the factor models across five racial/ethnic groups (African Americans, Asians or Pacific Islanders, Caucasians, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans), four grade levels (6th, 8th, 10th, and 12th) and both gender groups. Results support the construct validity of the surveys risk and protective factor scales and indicate that the measures are equally reliable across males and females and five racial/ethnic groups. Implications of these findings for science-based prevention planning are discussed.     

Evaluation of ephedrine, pseudoephedrine and phenylpropanolamine concentrations in human urine samples and a comparison of the specificity of DRI amphetamines and Abuscreen online (KIMS) amphetamines screening immunoassays

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of two amphetamine class screening reagents to exclude ephedrine (EPH), pseudoephedrine (PSEPH), and phenylpropanolamine (PPA) from falsely producing positive immunoassay screening results. The study also sought to characterize the prevalence and concentration distributions of EPH, PSEPH, and PPA in samples that produced positive amphetamine screening results. Approximately 27,400 randomly collected human urine samples from Navy and Marine Corps members were simultaneously screened for amphetamines using the DRI and Abuscreen online immunoassays at a cutoff concentration of 500 ng/mL. All samples that screened positive were confirmed for amphetamine (AMP), methamphetamine (MTH), 3,4-Methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA), 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), EPH, PSEPH, and PPA by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The DRI AMP immunoassay identified 1,104 presumptive amphetamine positive samples, of which only 1.99% confirmed positive for the presence of AMP, MTH, MDA, or MDMA. In contrast, the online AMP reagent identified 317 presumptive amphetamine positives with a confirmation rate for AMP, MTH, MDA, or MDMA of 7.94%. The presence of EPH, PSEPH, or PPA was confirmed in 833 of the 1,104 samples that failed to confirm positive for AMP, MTH, MDA, or MDMA; all of the 833 samples contained PSEPH. When compared to the entire screened sample set, PSEPH was present in approximately 3%, EPH in 0.9%, and PPA in 0.8% of the samples. The results indicate that cross reactivities for EPH, PSEPH, and PPA are greater than reported by the manufacturer of these reagents. The distribution of concentrations indicates that very large concentrations of EPH, PSEPH, and PPA are common.     

Mixed-Sex Settings and the Perception of Competence

This study examines the association of self-perceptions with sixth to eighth graders' exposure to mixed-sex and dating contexts. It contrasts two hypotheses: the stress hypothesis, which suggests that the transition to romantic relationships will be associated with declines in self-esteem, especially for girls, and the leisure hypothesis, which suggests that movement into a desired role in an emotionally positive social context will be associated with positive emotions and higher self-esteem. Results indicate that adolescents experience mixed-sex settings positively, and that comfort with the other sex (for girls) and more time spent with the other sex (for boys) are predictive of more positive self-perceptions. Activity diary data suggest that these differences are due to differences in the emotional climate of same- and mixed-sex settings, rather than to the activities adolescents engage in with same- and mixed-sex groups. Dating boys who are less interested in dating experience lower self-esteem. Results are discussed in light of the transitional nature of mixed-sex relationships in early adolescence and the preparatory role played by same-sex friendships.     

Gateway to Opportunity? Disparities in Neighborhood Conditions Among Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Residents

A key goal of housing assistance programs is to help lower income households reach neighborhoods of opportunity. Studies have described the degree to which Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) developments are located in high-opportunity neighborhoods, but our focus is on how neighborhood outcomes vary across different subsets of LIHTC residents. We also examine whether LIHTC households are better able to reach certain types of neighborhood opportunities. Specifically, we use new data on LIHTC tenants in 12 states along with eight measures of neighborhood opportunity. We find that compared with other rental units, LIHTC units are located in neighborhoods with higher poverty rates, weaker labor markets, more polluted environments, and lower performing schools, but better transit access. We also find that compared with other LIHTC tenants, poor and minority tenants live in neighborhoods that are significantly more disadvantaged.