The Influence of Advisers and Decision Strategies on Foreign Policy Choices: President Clinton's Decision to Use Force in Kosovo

In the following paper, I analyze the influence of advisers and domestic political factors on President Clinton's decision to use force against Slobodan Milosevic and the Serbs in Kosovo in March 1999. I present an analysis and examination of President Clinton's decision-making process, using press reports, personal speeches, etc. In other words, I attempt to trace the process by which Clinton came to the decision to use force in Yugoslavia. Specifically, using the poliheuristic theory, I argue that President Clinton's decision was influenced by noncompensatory domestic political calculations and the strong influence of his Secretary of State, Madeleine K. Albright. Examining how advisers interact with one another, their status in the advisory group, and the manner in which presidents solicit information from advisers will further our understanding of how, when, and under what conditions national security-level decision makers make decisions.     

Joint match probabilities for Y chromosomal and autosomal markers

Empirical tests of association between Y chromosome and autosomal markers are presented and a theoretical framework for determining a joint match probability is recommended. Statistical analyses of association were performed in 16 US populations between the autosomal genotypes from loci CSF1PO, FGA, THO1, TPOX, vWA, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S512, D21S11 and Y chromosome haplotypes from loci DYS19, DYS385ab, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS438, and DYS439. The sample populations include individuals of European-, African-, Hispanic-, Native-, and Asian-American ancestry. The results are consistent with independence of Y and autosomal markers, although small amounts of dependence would likely have escaped our tests. Given the data in hand, we suggest it is appropriate to compute joint match probabilities by multiplying the Y haplotype frequency with the appropriately corrected autosomal frequency. In addition to correcting for autosomal frequency differences between groups, a further correction may be required. Since two individuals sharing the same Y haplotype are likely to be more recently related than two randomly chosen individuals, the autosomal frequencies have to be adjusted to account for this, akin to the theta correction used to account for population substructure. The structure imposed on the autosomal frequencies conditioned in a Y match is a function of the number of markers scored and their mutation rate. However, in most settings theta<0.01. When population structure is already present in the autosomes, the additional effect due to conditioning on the Y is small. For example, if the amount of structure in the population is theta=0.01 or 0.03 (the NRCII range), then the effect of conditioning on the Y results in only a trivial increase in theta to 0.02-0.04, respectively.     

Population structure of Y chromosome SNP haplogroups in the United States and forensic implications for constructing Y chromosome STR databases

A set of 61 Y chromosome single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (Y-SNPs) is typed in a sample of 2517 individuals from 38 populations to infer the geographic origins of Y chromosomes in the United States and to test for paternal admixture among African-, European-, Hispanic-, Asian-, and Native-Americans. All of the samples were previously typed with the 11 core U.S. Y chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) recommended by SWGDAM, which revealed high levels of among ethnic group variation and low levels of among-population-within-ethnic-group variation. Admixture estimates vary greatly among populations and ethnic groups. The frequencies of non-European (3.4%) and non-Asian (4.5%) Y chromosomes are generally low in European-American and Asian-American populations, respectively. The frequencies of European Y chromosomes in Native-American populations range widely (i.e., 7-89%) and follow a West to East gradient, whereas they are relatively consistent in African-American populations (26.4+/-8.9%) from different locations. The European (77.8+/-9.3%) and Native-American (13.7+/-7.4%) components of the Hispanic paternal gene pool are also relatively constant among geographic regions; however, the African contribution is much higher in the Northeast (10.5+/-6.4%) than in the Southwest (1.5+/-0.9%) or Midwest (0%). To test for the effects of inter-ethnic admixture on the structure of Y-STR diversity in the U.S., we perform subtraction analyses in which Y chromosomes inferred to be admixed by Y-SNP analysis are removed from the database and pairwise population differentiation tests are implemented on the remaining Y-STR haplotypes. Results show that low levels of heterogeneity previously observed between pairs of Hispanic-American populations disappear when African-derived chromosomes are removed from the analysis. This is not the case for an unusual sample of European-Americans from New York City when its African-derived chromosomes are removed, or for Native-American populations when European-derived chromosomes are removed. We infer that both inter-ethnic admixture and population structure in ancestral source populations may contribute to fine scale Y-STR heterogeneity within U.S. ethnic groups.     

A novel multiplex for simultaneous amplification of 20 Y chromosome STR markers

A multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay capable of simultaneously amplifying 20 Y chromosome short tandem repeat (STR) markers has been developed to aid human identity testing and male population studies. These markers include all of the Y STRs that make up the "extended haplotype" used in Europe (DYS19, DYS385, DYS389I/II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, and YCAII) plus additional polymorphic Y STRs (DYS437, DYS438, DYS439, DYS447, DYS448, DYS388, DYS426, GATA A7.1, and GATA H4). Primers for the markers DYS385, DYS389, and YCAII target duplicated regions of the Y chromosome and thus can provide two polymorphic peaks for each respective primer set. This Y STR 20plex, which utilizes 34 different PCR primers, is the first to include a simultaneous amplification of all the markers within the European "minimal" and "extended" haplotypes. Relative primer positions are compared between the newly developed primers described here and previously published ones. Efforts were made to avoid X chromosome homology in the primer design as well as close packing of PCR product size ranges in order to keep all alleles less than 350 bp through careful examination of known allele ranges. Haplotype comparisons between the 20plex and a commercially available kit found excellent agreement across the 76 samples in the Y chromosome consortium panel.     

Forensic value of 14 novel STRs on the human Y chromosome

We identified and characterized 14 novel short-tandem-repeats (STRs) on the Y chromosome and typed them in two samples, a globally diverse panel of 73 cell lines, and 148 individuals from a European-American population. These Y-STRs include eight tetranucleotide repeats (DYS449, DYS453, DYS454, DYS455, DYS456, DYS458, DYS459, and DYS464), five pentanucleotide repeats (DYS446, DYS447, DYS450, DYS452, and DYS463), and one hexanucleotide repeat (DYS448). Sequence data were obtained to designate a repeat number nomenclature. The gene diversities of an additional 22 Y-STRs, including the most commonly used in forensic databases, were directly compared in the cell line DNAs. Six of the 10 most polymorphic markers include the newly identified Y-STRs. Furthermore, these novel Y-STRs greatly improved the resolution of paternal lineages, above the level obtained with commonly used Y-STRs, in the European-American population.     

Forensic value of 14 novel STRs on the human Y chromosome

We identified and characterized 14 novel short-tandem-repeats (STRs) on the Y chromosome and typed them in two samples, a globally diverse panel of 73 cell lines, and 148 individuals from a European–American population. These Y-STRs include eight tetranucleotide repeats (DYS449, DYS453, DYS454, DYS455, DYS456, DYS458, DYS459, and DYS464), five pentanucleotide repeats (DYS446, DYS447, DYS450, DYS452, and DYS463), and one hexanucleotide repeat (DYS448). Sequence data were obtained to designate a repeat number nomenclature. The gene diversities of an additional 22 Y-STRs, including the most commonly used in forensic databases, were directly compared in the cell line DNAs. Six of the 10 most polymorphic markers include the newly identified Y-STRs. Furthermore, these novel Y-STRs greatly improved the resolution of paternal lineages, above the level obtained with commonly used Y-STRs, in the European–American population.     

Genetic structure among 38 populations from the United States based on 11 U.S. core Y chromosome STRs

A DNA database consisting of the 11 Y chromosome short-tandem-repeat (Y-STR) recommended by the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods is constructed for 2517 individuals from 38 populations in the United States. The population samples derive from five ethnic groups currently living in 10 states. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) plot places the populations into four discrete clusters (African Americans (AA), European Americans (EA), Hispanic Americans (HA), and Asian Americans (SA)) and one dispersed cluster of Native Americans. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that a large proportion of the total genetic variance is partitioned among ethnic groups (24.8%), whereas only a small amount (1.5%) is found among-populations within ethnic groups. Separate AMOVA analyses within each ethnic group show that only the NA sample contains statistically significant among-population variation. Pair wise population differentiation tests do uncover heterogeneity among EA and among HA populations; however, this is due to only a single sample within each group. The analyses support the creation of AA, EA, HA, and Asian American databases in which samples from different geographic regions within the United States are pooled. We recommend that separate databases be constructed for different NA groups.