特朗普政府执政以来全球贸易体系的变局：机遇与挑战

特朗普自执政以来,强力推行"美国优先"的经济政策,冲击着现行的国际秩序,使全球贸易体系出现前所未有之大变局。美国成"变量",单边对决多边,西方阵营分裂,新兴经济体和发展中国家群体崛起明显。变局中,特朗普政府孤立主义、单边主义、保护主义的政治经济学逻辑显现无疑,这给中国的发展既带来了机遇,又造成了新的挑战。因此,中国必须采取稳妥的应对策略,把握战略全局,维护中美关系稳定大局;深化改革开放,打造多边利益共同体;布局主场外交,提升中国的战略能力。     

A Desire for Isolation? Mass Public Attitudes in South Africa Toward Immigration Levels

In the last decade incidents of xenophobia in South Africa have been prevalent. Are such anti-immigration attitudes related to a desire for isolationism in the country and support for a withdrawal from world affairs? Using data from the 2013 round of the nationally representative South African Social Attitudes Survey (N = 2,739), this article was able to shed light on determinants of anti-immigration attitudes using multivariate techniques. Foreign policy attitudes and cultural patriotism were found to be salient determinants of attitudes toward preferred immigration level. Support for isolationism was a better predictor than economic position. The findings suggest that discouraging isolationism would reduce xenophobia in the country.     

American Views of Europe

America’s diplomacy towards Europe has passed through two broad historic phases. A first, isolationist phase, determined in part by America’s need to maintain its domestic multinational consensus, was replaced, after World War II and under the Soviet threat, by a policy of hegemonic engagement. The Soviet collapse opened a new era forcing a reinterpretation of America’s role in Europe and the world. Four different narratives have emerged: triumphalist, declinist, chaotic or pluralist. If a unipolar American role seems unlikely to persist, American decline is all too possible. A new hegemonic replacement seems unlikely, which makes the pluralist narrative plausible and desirable. This multipolar world will require an adaptation of the Western alliance and a new way of thinking about interstate relations. Confederal Europe, for its experience in bargaining and conciliation, might have much to offer to the new plural world order.     

Anxiety and Diminished Hope: The Potential Impact of Trump’s Presidency on Security in the Pacific Islands Region

Abstract

The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the US has caused much international consternation and anxiety. Reactions have been based on distrust and rejection of Trump’s political ideology, behavioural disposition and unpredictable policy positions. His campaign speeches were filled with provocative utterances which were racist, sexist, homophobic, anti-environment and self-centred. This article examines some possible impacts of Trump’s presidency on the Pacific island countries (PICs). The first issue refers to how Trump’s proposed isolationist and militarisation policies may affect regional geopolitics. The two policies tend to contradict each other because while isolationism means pulling back on US economic and strategic presence in the Pacific, a reversal of the pivot to Asia-Pacific policy, militarisation implies greater strategic reach, regionally and globally. What does this seemingly contradictory approach mean for the PICs? Second, the article looks at the impact of Trump’s climate change denial stance and the responses by PICs, given the fact that climate change is the single most significant foreign policy and development initiative of the PICs since their independence. The third issue deals with the potential impact of Trump’s restrictive migration policies on remittance flow to the PICs and how these affect the small island economies and well-being.