September 11th and U.S. Hegemony—Or Will the 21st Century Be American Too?

The tragedy of September 11 highlights the stark contrast between the real and measurable capabilities possessed by one state, and the almost inevitable resentments which the possession of those capabilities engendered in others. The purpose of this article is not to interrogate the strengths and weaknesses of arguments of American decline. Nor is it to speculate at length about September 11th. It is instead to set the scene and try and identify the underlying causes of America's transition from presumed crisis in the 1970s and 1980s to new self-confidence in the 1990s—a self-confidence that some now feel has been shattered by the events of September. While there were important structural reasons why the United States was unlikely to go the way of other powers, it was a peculiar conjuncture of mainly unforeseen developments that combined together after 1989 to improve the U.S. position within the world. We will then move on to discuss the most effective way of characterizing this position. Here, we will mount a defense of the somewhat contentious notion of "hegemony" While recognizing the problems associated with the idea, it will be argued that as a concept it has serious intellectual advantages over its various theoretical competitors. If nothing else, because it focuses on the American role within the world system, rather than just its statically defined position, it is theoretically more suggestive than the less dynamic idea of unipolarity.     

亚洲债券基金的推出背景、影响及发展方向

以银行信贷为主的金融体系使东亚地区面临两大问题,即巨大的金融风险和盈余资金利用效率低下,这也是亚洲金融危机中有关各方脆弱表现的直接原因。为了解决这两个问题或缓解其造成的危害,东亚各国(地区)纷纷提出方案,亚洲债券基金(ABF)作为一个阶段性成果,目前已经推出两期,分别为ABF1和ABF2。虽然亚洲债券基金在推动亚洲债券市场发展方面有一定的积极影响,但是其局限性也很明显,未来的发展方向主要是投资对象和投资主体的多元化。     

美英两国毒品纯度与量刑分析

就毒品犯罪的量刑而言,如何对种类繁多、毒性大小不同的毒品给以科学的分类换算,并据此给予毒品犯罪人较为准确的刑罚,是一个世界性的难题。美、英两国在毒品数量是否根据纯度折算的不同做法,在毒品纯度与量刑方面的立法,值得借鉴。     

‘A Pioneer in the Struggle for Social Justice’: Manuel Larraín and Transnational Catholic Activism in Latin America in the 1950s and 1960s

This article explores the development of inter-American Catholicism during the 1950s and 1960s. It analyses the role of the Chilean Catholic bishop Manuel Larraín (1900–1966) in his efforts to disseminate his diagnosis of underdevelopment in Latin America and to establish links with the Catholic world in the United States. Based on a review of his writings, the American press and documentation from Catholic organisations, it is suggested that the Chilean bishop advocated the implementation of social reforms and American collaboration to prevent the advance of communism and strengthen Catholicism on the continent.     

A spatial analysis of county-level outcomes in US Presidential elections: 1988–2000

This paper identifies spatial patterns of county-level presidential election outcomes from 1988 to 2000, and tests the retrospective (reward–punishment) and issue–priority models of voting behavior within the context of county-level geographical clusters. Based on our spatial analyses, we find that: the geographical concentration of the partisan vote has increased at both the global and regional scales. Globally, counties have become more likely to be clustered with similar counties in terms of their partisan support. Regionally, Democrats have increasingly received more votes from the East and the urban areas than Republican candidates while the opposite is true in the West and the rural areas. The regression analyses also support aspects of the issue–priority model of voting behavior, while the retrospective theory is confirmed only for 1996.     

美国霸权与中国崛起

在分析美国霸权与中国崛起的关系时,可以得出3点结论。首先,在相当长的时间内,中国崛起对美国的机制霸权、经济霸权、政治和意识形态霸权、军事霸权都不构成严重挑战;在美国构筑的全球霸权体系下,中国也还有相当大的崛起空间。其次,中国崛起对美国在亚太地区的霸权地位形成结构性的挑战。最后,从思维框架上说,我们既不能丢弃对国际权力格局的传统分析方法,以为信息和思想的沟通以及经济等领域的国际合作能够自然生成国家间的友好关系,消解国际冲突,也不能忽略国家及其以下的行为体的主观能动作用,以为权力格局的变化必然造成国际秩序的混乱。现在,中美领导人都认识到两国相互对抗的危害性,因此中美关系有望继续维持稳定,并逐渐建立起更为稳定的战略框架。     

The relative weight of character traits in political candidate evaluations: Warmth is more important than competence,leadership and integrity

Decades of research has found that voters’ electoral decisions to a significant degree are affected by character evaluations of candidates. Yet it remains unresolved which specific candidate traits voters find most important. In political science it is often argued that competence-related traits are most influential, whereas work in social psychology suggests that warmth-related traits are more influential. Here we test which character trait is the more influential in global candidate evaluations and vote choice using observational data from the ANES 1984–2008 and an original experiment conducted on a representative sample of English partisan respondents. Across the two studies we find that warmth is more influential than competence, leadership and integrity. Importantly, results hold across a wide range of alternative specifications and robustness analyses. We conclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications of the results.     

“拒绝衰落”与美国“要塞化”：特朗普的大战略

美国是大战略理论与实践的重镇。冷战结束后，“自由霸权主义”构成了美国大战略的基本内涵。在相对权势有所衰落的背景下，特朗普政府于2017年12月提出的新版《美国国家安全战略》体现出美国大战略转型的端倪。该战略是对“自由霸权主义”的颠覆：除在战略目标(追求或巩固世界霸权地位)大体一致外，该战略极力强调美国安全环境的恶化和外部挑战的大幅增强，在战略路径上主张单方面强化美国的经济与军事实力，放弃多边主义，撤回对国际机制的支持，以期在未来的大国竞争中取胜。特朗普的战略存在内在的缺陷，效果亦存在颇多不确定性，与国际政治经济发展趋势明显相悖，对中国国家安全环境产生了较为直接的影响。     

International democracy promotion and democratization in the Middle East and North Africa

This article offers an overview of the literature on international democracy promotion in relation to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It draws on the criteria of process tracing to evaluate the mechanisms, processes and episodes of democratization associated with international democracy promotion in the region. It finds that the literature lacks a clear account of how international democracy promotion relates to conditions for democratization and could pay greater attention to the role of media in either supporting or counteracting democracy promotion activities which impact democratization processes in the region.     

Inclusive Masculinity Theory: overview,reflection and refinement

In 2010, this journal published an early exposition of inclusive masculinity theory. Since then, the theory has been widely adopted within both the sport and masculinities literature. Furthermore, a large number of other scholars not using the theory have also documented and labelled new masculinity types. There has also been refinement of Inclusive Masculinity Theory, alongside theoretical critiques. In this article, we provide an overview of the genesis of the theory and its refinement, before considering and responding to published and unpublished critiques of the theory. We then suggest future directions for research.