From Territorial Claim to War: Timing,Causation, and the Steps-to-War

The steps-to-war thesis has become one of the dominant frameworks for explaining war in the discipline. Substantial testing has supported the empirical claims of the argument, but key theoretical questions remain. These primarily have to do with the question of endogeneity. While the steps-to-war thesis argues that each step increases the probability of war, others have argued that you might find the same empirical relationships in cases where war was anticipated, or that rivalry is the underlying causal factor for both the different variables and war itself. This study addresses these critical challenges by examining the historic timing of the steps to war in territorial claims from 1919–1995 to determine whether their sequencing supports the causal argument of the steps-to-war thesis or the various challenges to it. The results indicate that there are clear categorical differences in territorial claims that result in war, and discusses the relevant theoretical implications.     

Conceptions of the good,rivalry, and liberal neutrality

Liberal neutrality is assumed to pertain to rival conceptions of the good. The nature of the rivalry between conceptions of the good is pivotal to the coherence, scope and realisation of liberal neutrality. Yet, liberal theorists have said very little about rivalry. This paper attempts to fill this gap by reviewing three conceptions of rivalry: incompatibility rivalry, intra-domain rivalry and state power rivalry. I argue that state power rivalry is the morally relevant conception of rivalry, and that it has significant implications for the scope and realisation of liberal neutrality. I conclude that in the light of state power rivalry, the only feasible liberal neutral state is a very minimal one.     

The more the merrier? Sino-Japanese security relations in the context of complex interstate rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of Sino-Japanese rivalry in the security sphere concentrating on the Chinese perspective, and placing it within the wider context of complex interstate rivalry between China, Japan and the United States. From a theoretical viewpoint, this research contributes to the literature on interstate rivalry from multiparty perspective, which has been overlooked in existing research. China–Japan–US complex interstate rivalry includes elements of positional, spatial and ideological rivalry simultaneously. When rivalries mix two or more rivalry types, they become more difficult to resolve. The two broad trends of China’s military build-up and deepening US–Japan alliance evolve in tandem intensifying rivalry dynamics and increasing positional elements of rivalry. There are many indications on various levels that for China, controlling Japan’s international ambitions has become less important and more attention is paid to ways in which Japan helps the United States in reaching its objectives in Asia through their alliance agreement. The cases analysed to display complex interstate rivalry include the Taiwan question, territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, and the North Korean nuclear issue.     

International Technology Cooperation: The Problem of Commercial Rivalry

International technology cooperation promises to help countries exploit the potential of new innovations, but commercial rivalry between companies and governments raises obstacles to it. In this article, I present and solve a model of international technology cooperation. The formal analysis shows that a technology agreement must address two issues. First, governments must be able to induce companies to innovate. Second, governments must credibly commit to penalizing companies for failing to share new information produced through research. Based on these observations, I show that the potential for technology cooperation is maximized in symmetric settings between equally capable governments and companies. In practice, this observation warrants a policy focus on countries and industries that are already on a level playing ground. I also consider extensions to multinational companies and adverse selection problems. The formal analysis provides a solid foundation for practical policy implementation.     

拜登政府对华态势考察：非战略军事阵线

拜登政府执政八个月,在战略军事领域不断强化和升级对中国的戒备、威胁、围堵和反推。在战略军事阵线之外,拜登政府的对华态势和行为更加凸显竞争和对抗。它在贸易领域持续挑起涉华贸易争端和发动主要针对中国的供应链重组;在高新技术领域全面施行高技术"脱钩"和遏止;在外交领域推进旨在围堵和孤立中国的涉华盟友外交。在中美合作方面,可能的具体合作必然甚为有限,并且与两国间在世界威望、全球治理领导地位、意识形态影响和经济/技术方面的竞争复杂交织。拜登总统将中美之间愈发激烈的竞斗当成更广泛的全球意识形态竞斗,怀着一项自命的使命("拜登主义"),即面对所谓"专制主义的威胁"和21世纪的其他挑战,要证明民主依然管用。拜登政府对华政策总纲正在浮现:中国是美国短期、中期和长期的近乎全面的"敌对威胁"和竞争对手,美国的相关目标不仅是对华竞而胜之,而且是对华完胜。中国既要不低估拜登政府的能力和已取得的效果,也要密切注意其客观困难和主观表现的上下波动,因而须对拜登治下的美国的综合实力和多方潜能进行经久的开放性观察。量力而行、量利而行、注重成本、提防风险应当是起码的和迫在眉睫的基本方针,以此为前提才可正确谋划长远的未来方向。     

Diplomatic Rivalries and Cultural One-upmanship: New Zealand’s Long Quest to Become More Pacific than Australia

Abstract

New Zealand’s governmental and non-governmental agencies, academic commentators and media have long framed the country as uniquely and favourably positioned on cultural grounds to be a strategic diplomatic actor in the South Pacific. Justifications for the framing stem from two linked complexes: the history of New Zealand’s colonial and post-colonial involvement in a number of Polynesian territories in the Pacific; and the related history of relations between settlers and indigenes in New Zealand itself. These different strands of the argument have increasingly been brought together by the growth in numbers of New Zealand-born and domiciled Pacific Islanders. They, along with Maori, have been recruited into the diplomatic service and overtly contribute to the use of Polynesian encounter rituals in New Zealand’s diplomatic outreach. Such histories are used to justify New Zealand’s role in the Pacific in its relations with other external powers, especially in diplomatic jostling with Australia. The claims to special insight and cultural capital are subjected to critical scrutiny.     

Fighting for Fame: The ‘Heroines of Pervyse’ and the Disputed Construction of a Public Image

Abstract: This investigative analysis bases itself on an array of documentary material from the archives of the Imperial War Museum in its effort to recover the intricate story behind the two British volunteer nurses who made their name during the First World War with the first-aid station they set up in Pervyse, a mere stone's throw away from the Belgian firing line. The essay juxtaposes a variety of documentary sources—the unpublished diaries of the two women, Geraldine Mitton's reconstruction of the story out of the nurses' journals and letters in The Cellar-House of Pervyse (1916), and two photograph albums, ‘The Women of Pervyse’, bequeathed to the Imperial War Museum—in a quest to understand how the two nurses came to acquire their status of national heroines. Sifting through the source material, this investigation reveals the numerous inconsistencies and gaps that exist between the published and the unpublished accounts of the dressing station, whose true genesis is obscured by several competing narratives. A close reading of Mitton's account and the photographic portraitures discloses that neither of these documents ought to be taken at their face value. They need to be understood as valuable tools in the nurses' own battle for authority, public recognition and their opportunity to feature as genuine protagonists in the arena of war.     

Competition between unions as a stimulus for initiating reform: the Israeli case, 1958–2015

The article identifies characteristics and consequences of competition between two teachers’ unions as a component of multi-unionism. The study aimed to clarify the consequences of this competition for the education system following the splitting of one teachers’ union and formation of a new union, which challenged both its rival and the policy-makers. The study focuses particularly on the development of the newer union. Data was gathered from documents written between 1958 and 2013, and supplementary interviews were conducted with 15 key figures in the unions, the Ministry of Education, and the Treasury. While research literature usually describes the conduct of teachers’ unions on a continuum between hindrance and facilitation of educational reforms, the study’s findings add an additional dimension relating to the possibility that competition between two teachers’ unions can engender competitive proposals for educational reform and act as a catalyst for change in educational policy. The rivalry led to the emergence of two similar, but competing, educational reforms, accepted by government and in effect today in all the schools. The study provides information on different levels of competition between the teachers’ unions, and the leeway for action that a union has as an interest group.     

China’s Oil Venture in Africa

Oil has long been viewed as a strategic resource for nations. China is now the world’s second largest oil-consuming country after the U.S.. Its global efforts to secure oil imports to meet increasing domestic demand have profound implications for international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s rising oil demand and its external quest for oil have thus generated much attention. As China’s overseas oil quest intensifies, will China clash with the U.S. and other western countries’ interests in Africa, and how dose it look at this rivalry? Will China disrupt the U.S. and its allies’ foreign policy and the world order? This article tries to provide an overview of China’s initiatives in developing oil in Africa. It examines factors for Chinese oil companies going to Africa and China’s oil strategy there. Finally, it argues that even though China’s practices of energy diplomacy in Africa seem to undermine U.S. goals of isolating or punishing “rogue states”, contrary to those pessimistic views, China has largely accommodated the U.S. and is willing to forge joint efforts with the U.S. in energy exploration in Africa.     

Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

Since segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.