法律推理视角中的法官自由裁量

法官自由裁量客观存在于法律推理过程中;审判三段论的大前提和小前提分别蕴涵着法官对适用法律和案件事实的自由裁量;在实质法律推理中法官通过价值判断进行自由裁量.     

传递性推理心理效应的研究

传递性推理心理效应是指在进行传递性推理时各种因素对做出演绎结论的影响。传递性推理的心理效应主要包括端点锚定效应、系列位置效应、符号距离效应、一致性效应、转换效应、方向效应。深入研究传递性推理中的心理效应有助于进一步揭示传递性推理机制。在未来的传递性推理研究中要高度重视对心理效应的系统研究。     

法律解释合法性的逻辑结构

法律解释合法性问题不同于法律的合法性问题,一个合理化问题,而不是正义论问题。法律解释的合法性结构应当是由形式理性的法律推理、“价值理性”的价值判断和交往理性的社会认同构成的完善的法律——社会过程。     

Popular initiatives in Uruguay: confidence votes on government or political loyalties?

Among stable democracies, Uruguay is one of the most prodigious users of direct democratic devices at the national level. If we analyze the relationship between the share of “yes” votes received by any popular initiative and the share of votes received by politicians who politically supported it, we observe a strikingly high positive correlation of 0.9. Explaining this correlation is the central objective of this paper. Three alternative hypotheses are plausible: First, such a correlation could be a spurious association due to aggregation bias. Second, PI results could be reflections of economic conditions. Third, Uruguayans are extremely consistent in following their political parties' advice. This paper finds that when Uruguayans go to the polls to vote on a popular initiative, their vote choice is primarily the result of their party loyalty, rather than their reaction to economic conditions. In testing my hypotheses I rely on the following statistical methods: King's “Ecological Inference,” multivariate regression, and path analysis. The data come from seven popular initiatives in Uruguay since 1985 (133 observations).     

线条状痕迹在推断工具种类中的应用

线条状痕迹是以凹凸起伏的线条反映工具上的特征的,并且凹凸象相反。工具与物体存在相对位移时,工具上凸起的部位能够形成凹陷的线条、工具上凹陷的部位能够形成凸起的线条。工具表面上的线条状加工花纹,通过压力作用,可以印压在物体表面上并形成线条状痕迹反映。根据线条状痕迹的具体情况,能够在一定程度上推断出形成痕迹的工具种类。     

Language translation for file paths

Forensic examiners are frequently confronted with content in languages that they do not understand, and they could benefit from machine translation into their native language. But automated translation of file paths is a difficult problem because of the minimal context for translation and the frequent mixing of multiple languages within a path. This work developed a prototype implementation of a file-path translator that first identifies the language for each directory segment of a path, and then translates to English those that are not already English nor artificial words. Brown's LA-Strings utility for language identification was tried, but its performance was found inadequate on short strings and it was supplemented with clues from dictionary lookup, Unicode character distributions for languages, country of origin, and language-related keywords. To provide better data for language inference, words used in each directory over a large corpus were aggregated for analysis. The resulting directory-language probabilities were combined with those for each path segment from dictionary lookup and character-type distributions to infer the segment's most likely language. Tests were done on a corpus of 50.1 million file paths looking for 35 different languages. Tests showed 90.4% accuracy on identifying languages of directories and 93.7% accuracy on identifying languages of directory/file segments of file paths, even after excluding 44.4% of the paths as obviously English or untranslatable. Two of seven proposed language clues were shown to impair directory-language identification. Experiments also compared three translation methods: the Systran translation tool, Google Translate, and word-for-word substitution using dictionaries. Google Translate usually performed the best, but all still made errors with European languages and a significant number of errors with Arabic and Chinese.     

基于年龄相关DNA甲基化位点推断河南汉族个体年龄

目的探查中国河南汉族个体与年龄相关的DNA甲基化位点,构建年龄推断模型,进行甲基化和年龄相关性分析。方法采用焦磷酸测序法对ELOVL2、ClOrf132、KLF14、TRIM59和FHL2基因的34个CG位点进行甲基化分析,利用SPSS 23软件的多元回归方法建立模型,对甲基化和年龄相关性做分析。结果除ClOrf132基因3个CG位点的甲基化水平与年龄呈负相关外,其余4个基因的31个CG位点甲基化水平均与年龄呈正相关。多元回归分析表明,年龄与CG位点的甲基化水平存在明显的线性关系,实际年龄与推断年龄偏差在5岁以内的准确度达80%以上。结论本研究构建的河南汉族个体年龄推断模型,有助于通过检测血液等组织的DNA甲基化水平推断个体的年龄范围,具有法医学应用前景。     

High turnout in the Low Countries: Partisan effects of the abolition of compulsory voting in the Netherlands

We use a quasi-experimental framework to test the conventional wisdom that left-of-center parties benefit from higher turnout by analyzing the partisan effects of the abolition of compulsory voting in the Netherlands. Fixed effects, multilevel, and matching models of party family vote shares in the Netherlands before and after the reform–and in reference to a control group of Belgian party families–show consistent evidence the voting reform led to an increase in the vote share of Dutch social democratic parties and a decrease in the vote share won by minor and extreme parties. We find some evidence that Christian democratic and liberal parties also benefited from the voting reform, but argue this finding is not causally related to the reform itself.