从国际法角度析空间武器问题

美国于2002年退出《弹道导弹条约》,并启动导弹防御计划,使外层空间面临着成为军备竞赛新场所的危险.尽管现有的国际法对空间武器的使用是否合法没有作明文规定,但包括《联合国宪章》等在内的国际法律性文件都试图以法律手段实现外层空间的非军事化;而根据《部分禁止核试验条约》,不允许缔约国进行任何使用核动力的导弹拦截试验;《环境影响公约》和《外空条约》等则禁止出于军事目的或任何其他敌对方式使用空间武器.     

关于中国养老保险筹资模式的思考与研究

本文从分析养老保险制度的不同筹资模式入手,从对经济增长的影响,应对人口老龄化的能力和改革中的转制成本权衡等方面,阐述了当代中国养老保险制度选择的现状及其困境,并且针对完善养老保险政策制度,提出了保持过渡时期稳定发展的可行性建议。     

流动儿童的城市融人——基于北京、广州、成都三城市的调查

基于北京、广州、成都三个城市的调查数据,本文检验了既有的移民融入理论在解释中国流动儿童城市融入上的适用性.通过引入地区、制度(户口)、市民包容度以及流动儿童个体流动情况等总共8个自变量,对流动儿童的城市融入做累积logistic回归.研究结果发现.地区、制度和市民的社会包容(反之即社会排斥)对流动儿童的城市融入具有显著的影响.此外,流动儿童在城市呆的时间越长,则越倾向融入城市,而其他个体性变量对儿童的城市融入不具有显著影响.研究结果表明,随着流动儿童融入城市日益迫切,政府应努力在制度、政策上帮助流动儿童融入城市,而当地市民也应对流动人口保持更为包容的态度.     

An Italian Leitmotiv? Corruption and Competence in the Debates of the Italian Chamber of Deputies (1946–2014)

By making use of an original data-set built based on a codification of all investiture debates of the Italian governments from 1946 to 2014, the paper investigates the main factors that explain the choice of a party to devote its attention to the valence issues of corruption and competence in its legislative speeches. Two classes of hypotheses are tested; the first concentrates on spatial reasons, and the second concentrates on contextual factors. Both sets of factors appear to play a significant role, although no clear temporal trend emerges in party attention over almost seventy years of Italian parliamentary debates.     

应用回归分析方法推算女性胸骨年龄

研究89例中国汉族女性胸骨（11～61岁）上的8个部位的形态随年龄增长而变化的规律，并分别划分形态等级，然后采用多元线性回归和逐步回归分析方法，求出了由女性脑骨形态推算年龄的多元回归方程；对手柄—一体和／或体——剑突骨性融合的胸骨也建立了相应的方程。上述各方程经检验P＜0.01，r=0．99，SD在1．33～1．71岁之间。与国内外同类研究相比，本方法较为简便、准确，更具实用价值。     

评有关企业“改制”的数据推论

依据简单的经验性统计分析和计量回归对私有化的企业改制成效所作的论证具有许多根本性的逻辑错误:将局部性的问题夸大成全局性的问题;颠倒了因果关系;不分析产生统计数字的具体环境,而作出了与实际情况相反的结论;只考虑利润率这样的效率因素就得出应将国有企业都私有化的结论;将有完善制度的私营企业与制度尚不完善的国有企业相比较;等等。依据这类研究的数据结果所作的推论是不可靠的,由这种推论所得出的有关私有化的重大结论是不可信的。     

“凡进必考”可以提升基层公务员的专业自主性吗?--基于准自然实验的断点回归分析

"凡进必考"制度是我国选贤任能制度的重要内容,有利于我国干部队伍专业化建设,但现有研究对考试录用制度与专业自主性关系的解释存在不足。本研究提出了理论上的解释:"凡进必考"制度触发基层公务员与内部人利益分离机制;注重专业能力的"凡进必考"制度触发专业角色期待机制,两者均有利于专业自主性提升。本研究采集我国东中部10个城市基层公务员数据,使用断点回归与中介效应方法,实证结果显示:《国家公务员暂行条例》1996年在地方落实后触发利益分离机制;基层公务员专业能力对公务员制度变迁与专业自主性关系起到中介作用;2014年实施《党政领导干部选拔任用工作条例》开始限缩"公开选拔"适用范围对专业自主性产生负面影响。未来选贤任能制度完善中,如何平衡灵活录用与专业自主性是一个有待解决的问题。     

No sorting,no advantage: Regression discontinuity estimates of incumbency advantage in Japan

While the existing literature has identified a sizable incumbency advantage in single-member district (SMD) races in developed democracies, we argue that some political and institutional contexts of Japan's Lower House elections would undermine the incumbency advantage. Our regression discontinuity (RD) analysis indeed shows little advantage, and further examination suggests this as largely due to the “best-loser” provision in Japan's mixed-member system, which gives a loser of SMD competition a chance to be a “resurrected” incumbent. We also show no evidence of sorting – i.e., systematic difference between bare winners and bare losers – in close SMD races and thus add further evidence to support the methodological argument that the election RD analysis is a viable and promising research design.     

Familial DNA searching- an emerging forensic investigative tool

In recent years, jurisdictions across the United States have expressed a growing interest in aiding criminal investigations through the use of familial DNA searching (FDS)- a forensic technique to identify family members through DNA databases. The National Survey of CODIS Laboratories surveyed U.S. CODIS laboratories about their perceptions, policies, and practices related to FDS. In total, 103 crime labs completed the survey (77% response rate). Labs in 11 states reported using FDS, while labs in 24 states reported using a similar-but distinct- practice of partial matching. Although the majority of labs had positive perceptions about the ability of FDS to assist investigations, labs also reported a number of concerns and challenges with implementing FDS. Respondents reported using either practice a limited amount with modest numbers of convictions resulting from both FDS and partial matching. The article reports on varying practices related to official policies, training, eligibility, the software search, lineage testing, requirements for releasing information, and subsequent investigative work. Finally, the article discusses what can be learned from this survey, accompanying limitations, and implications for decision-makers considering using FDS.     

A multivariate statistical approach to for the evaluation of the biogeographical ancestry information from traditional STRs

The capability to achieve biogeographic ancestry (BGA) information from DNA profiles have been largely explored in forensic genetics because of its potential usefulness in providing investigative clues. For law enforcement and security purposes, when genetic data have been obtained from unknown evidence, but no reference samples are available and no hints come out from DNA databases, it would be extremely useful at least to infer the ethno-geographic origin of the stain donor by just examining traditional STRs DNA profiles.Current protocols for ethnic origin estimation using STRs profiles are usually based on Principal Component Analysis approaches and Bayesian methods. The present study provides an alternative approach that involves the use of target multivariate data analysis strategies for estimation of the BGA information from unknown biological traces. A powerful multivariate technique such as Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) has been applied on NIST U.S. population datasets containing, for instance, the allele frequencies of African-American, Asian, Caucasian and Hispanic individuals. PLS-DA approach provided robust classifications, yielding high sensitivity and specificity models capable of discriminating the populations on ethnic basis. Finally, a real casework has been examined by extending the developed model to smaller and more geographically-restricted populations involving, for instance, Albanian, Italian and Montenegrian individuals.