乐观主义、风险与法制现代化——评公丕祥《法制现代化的理论逻辑》

作为"法制现代化"论说的代表之作,《法制现代化的理论逻辑》一书存在着法制乐观主义倾向。无论其思想来源,对传统与现代性的看法,以及对人性改造的主张等,都带有乐观主义倾向。这种乐观主义的理论盲点集中体现在其忽视了对风险的认识。因此,需要检讨法制现代化的基本立场,对其注入社会危机、风险等理论元素。     

认定医疗过失行为的几个法则--医师的注意义务(5)

医师的过失行为本质是一种客观过失,是对医师注意义务的违反,考察医疗过失行为应合理的运用风险判断、专业判断、信赖原则来综合判断.     

Intimate Partner Violence in Extremely Poor Women: Longitudinal Patterns and Risk Markers

Despite high revalence rates of intimate partner violence in the lives of extremely poor women with dependent children, few studies have investigated the patterns of violence that occur over time, and the characteristics of women that serve as risk markers for partner violence. This paper describes patterns of domestic violence longitudinally and uses multivariate analyses to delineate childhood and adult risk markers for recent intimate partner violence in this population of women. Analyses draw upon a sample of 436 homeless and extremely poor housed mothers receiving welfare, in a mid-sized city in Massachusetts with a large Hispanic population of Puerto Rican descent and relatively fewer Blacks. We found that among women with complete longitudinal data (N=280), almost two-thirds experienced intimate partner violence at some point during their adult life by the end of study follow-up, and that the abuse before and after the baseline interview was episodic and limited over time. To examine the role of individual women's factors, while controlling for partner characteristics, we used baseline data on women who had been partnered during the past year (N=336). Among childhood predictors, we found that sexual molestation contributed most significantly to adult intimate partner violence that occurred during the past year prior to the baseline interview. Adult risk markers included inadequate emotional support from non-professionals, poor self-esteem, and a partner with substance abuse problems. Having a partner with poor work history was another independent predictor of recent abuse. Ethnicity did not significantly predict whether women were abused or not during the past year, contrary to other findings reported in the literature.     

我国地方政府债务的区域差异比较及影响因素分析北大核心SSCI

从债务规模、偿债能力和财政压力三个方面,通过均值法和比较分析方法,对我国东部地区、东北地区、中部地区和西部地区的政府债务进行区域间和区域内比较,结果显示我国地方政府债务风险的区域分布具有很大差异性。主要体现为东部地区负债率低、财政压力小,中部地区偿债能力强,西部地区债务规模增速快,东北地区偿债能力堪忧等区域特征。影响我国地方政府债务空间分布特征的经济因素主要是区域经济体量、经济增速和财政赤字率。地方政府债务监管部门应加强对地方政府债务资金使用的绩效管理,实行区域差异化的债务风险防控措施。     

Psychologists as ‘the quiet ones with the power’: understanding indeterminate sentenced prisoners’ experiences of psychological risk assessment in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Prisoners serving indeterminate sentences in the United Kingdom do not know when or if they will be released from prison. Release and progression decisions are determined by the risk the ISP presents of reoffending. This makes the assessment of risk a high stakes business for ISPs. Whilst there is a large body of literature focused on prisoners’ general experiences of prison, there is an absence of specific empirical exploration of prisoners’ experiences of risk assessment. This paper aims to address this gap by reporting the results of a qualitative exploration of ISPs’ experiences of psychological risk assessment. Interviews with 10 ISPs were conducted and analysed using Grounded Theory methods. Analysis indicated that prisoners experienced the prison environment as characterised by violence, volatility and suffering. Psychological risk assessment is embedded within this emotionally and physically challenging context but also contributes to the experience of suffering. Within this context, prisoners felt stuck, powerless and out of control in relation to risk assessment, and experienced psychologists as untrustworthy yet powerful. Understanding prisoners’ experiences is the first step in resolving some of the long-reported difficulties in working relationships between psychologists and prisoners as well as making the process more procedurally just.     

中国农村的自杀问题(1980-2009)——兼与景军先生等商榷

通过对7省34村的质性访谈而获得的1980-2009年间604例农民自杀死亡案例的数据分析,本文认为当前农村自杀率仍呈显著上升态势。青年人自杀率的显著下降与老年人自杀率的急速上升并行不悖地运行于当下农村,青年女性自杀率的显著下降拉低了青年人整体自杀率并使之向下运行,然而,老年人自杀率的急速上升则拉升了农村的整体自杀率并使之向上运行。分析指出,决定这种复杂形貌的因素并非农村女性的迁移所导致,而是由于代际关系变动与离婚加速兴起所造成。其背后更为深刻的机制则表明,当前农村自杀率的复杂变化是现代性持续地侵蚀农村的产物。     

新时期建立城市治安预警的理论依据阐释及意义分析

目前，我国警学界和公安部门对治安预警没有一个统一的界定，学者们从不同角度对治安预警的内涵进行了阐述。风险社会理论、危机管理理论和客观规律理论的发展和成熟，揭示了后现代化时期风险和危机时刻存在，并且日趋国际化，对公安实战部门提出了新的挑战和要求，因此建立一套符合我国国情的治安预警机制显得十分迫切。治安预警机制的建立现实意义深远，有利于增强公安机关的应变能力，履行维护社会治安秩序的使命，有利于增强人们的安全感，同时凸显了情报信息的作用，促进和谐警民关系的构建。     

合会风险的法律控制——以中国农村民间金融安全为视角

合会作为一种民间融资形式,在一定程度上弥补了正式金融机构信贷供给的不足.国家已在政策上主张探索和利用民间融资的新试点,使民间金融发展合法化.合会固有的风险防范机制——熟人社会相互问的制约机制在当今社会有所减弱,但合会所固有的风险依然存在.从我国农村民间金融安全的角度重新审视合会的风险,在借鉴印度合会风险控制立法经验的基...     

地区犯罪规模影响因素的混沌分析

区域社会和经济存在与发展的因素对犯罪规模有着不同程度的影响。文章基于这一事实将警务效率、人均GDP、受教育状况、人口密度和基尼系数作为地区犯罪规模的评价因素，采用复回归方法建立了地区犯罪率模型，通过模糊动态聚类分析得到了影响犯罪规模各因素的混沌特征，从这种混沌优化的学习过程中确定了各个影响因素的权重，将它作为地区犯罪规模影响因素的程度。结果表明，警务效率对犯罪率的影响最大，其次是人口密度和受教育程度的影响．     

风险的属性及其对政府重大决策社会风险评估的启示

政府的重大决策事关改革发展大局,事关社会的稳定和谐。因此,政府的重大决策应该进行社会风险评估。风险是一个心理学概念,以感知为基础,而不是以事实为基础,这种感知是以认识到的危险的质性特征而不是量化特征为基础。如果政府的重大决策具有一定的社会性风险,那么在重大决策的风险评估和管理过程中,应该考虑政策信息披露的可信性、特异性和行动信息的具体性。在政府重大决策的社会风险评估过程中,应该注意:(1)风险评估主体除了官员和专家,应该把一般民众纳入进来;(2)政府机构与普通民众之间信任关系的建立是关键;(3)在政府重大决策的社会风险评估中,应该正确使用媒体的力量;(4)树立公共优先的原则,协调重大决策各方之间的利益关系。