A spatial analysis of county-level outcomes in US Presidential elections: 1988–2000

This paper identifies spatial patterns of county-level presidential election outcomes from 1988 to 2000, and tests the retrospective (reward–punishment) and issue–priority models of voting behavior within the context of county-level geographical clusters. Based on our spatial analyses, we find that: the geographical concentration of the partisan vote has increased at both the global and regional scales. Globally, counties have become more likely to be clustered with similar counties in terms of their partisan support. Regionally, Democrats have increasingly received more votes from the East and the urban areas than Republican candidates while the opposite is true in the West and the rural areas. The regression analyses also support aspects of the issue–priority model of voting behavior, while the retrospective theory is confirmed only for 1996.     

浅议基层保障问题对公安“打防”工作落实的影响

在目前公安实践中,公安基层现状和公安后勤保障存在一定问题,影响了公安"打防"工作正确落实.解决思路:加强基层公安机关,增加公安防范的投入;加强公安后勤保障,建立、完善公安经费保障机制.     

根据颈椎CT片特征指标进行同一认定的研究

目的选择颈椎CT片上的特征指标,建立逐步回归方程,探讨其在法医学同一认定中的应用价值。方法收集130名被检查者颈椎CT片各1张,70名被检查者不同次颈椎CT影像片各2张。选择并测量颈椎CT片上的13项指标值,分别计算被检查者随机分组后相同测量指标的组间差值,以及同一人不同次测量指标间的差值,运用二分类logistic逐步回归分析,建立各项指标的一元回归方程和多项指标的多元回归方程,并对方程进行盲测检验。结果建立的13个一元方程中同一认定的准确率在69.0%~90.4%之间;建立的4个多元回归方程的准确率在90.4%~96.7%之间,盲测准确率为100%。结论本文在CT片上选择的13项特征指标可以用于同一认定,使用时应尽可能选用多元指标以得到更准确的结果。     

EXCEL多元回归分析在痕迹数据处理上的应用

在痕迹检验技术中,很多推算公式是由回归分析预测法得出的。多元回归分析预测法的计算,虽然可以用常用计算器进行统计,但是数据复杂繁琐,工作量较大。Excel是一种办公系统软件,运用它的强大数据分析功能,只输入一次原始数据,而后全部以鼠标操作即可自动生成回归方程。文章以一组足迹数据分析为例,首先介绍相关分析,然后建立回归模型,最后计算出相关的回归方程。     

Prosecutorial discretion to defer criminalization: The effects of defendant's ascribed and achieved status characteristics

This research contributes to a further understanding of prosecutorial discretion by exploring tenets of casual attribution theory and etiology of bias theory as each informs an uncertainty avoidance perspective on the prosecutor's decision to divert felony drug defendants from criminal prosecution and into a treatment program. The sociolegal consequences of the exercise of this early screening decision are expressed by both conflict theorists and labeling theorists. Our analysis involves estimating main effects and interaction effects of defendant ascribed status and achieved status on the likelihood of diversion. The findings indicate partial support for hypotheses derived, from the theoretical perspectives pursued. In addition these findings point to a more complex model of the subjective nature of the exercise of prosecutorial discretion, a model that benefits from understanding the salience of minimizing uncertainty in the decision to criminals.     

The Impact of Gender and Department Climate on Job Satisfaction and Intentions to Quit for Faculty in Science and Engineering Fields

This study investigates whether gender and the perceptions of department climate affects faculty job satisfaction and intentions to quit (work outcomes) with surveys responses from 308 faculty members in science and engineering fields. The study finds that both gender and department climate are related to work outcomes and that two facets of department climate (affective and instrumental) mediate the relationship between gender and both job satisfaction and intention to quit. This finding suggests that universities can benefit from improving department climate, which then may improve the retention of both male and female faculty, but may have an even greater impact on improving job satisfaction and reducing intentions to quit of female faculty.     

基于HPLC的三芳甲烷类染料字迹人为老化的实验研究

目的对蓝色圆珠笔字迹在经过紫外光源老化后的独特特征进行研究,建立确认紫外灯照射的人为老化文件的方法。方法本文以蓝色圆珠笔字迹为研究对象,蓝色圆珠笔中的三芳甲烷类染料在紫外灯的照射下会吸收光子的能量加速其老化脱甲基的反应,通过适当的假设可以推导出其老化程度随时间变化的老化方程,由于目前紫外灯管几乎全部是线型结构,建立合适的坐标系,假设线型灯管能量分布均匀,且紫外线以球面波的形式传播出去,可以计算出纸面上任意一点的能量,通过纸张表面不同位置的三芳甲烷类染料的老化程度的不同来区别自然老化文件与紫外灯人为老化文件的不同。结果经过实验发现对于紫外灯人为老化文件来说甲基紫初始含量比上老化后含量的对数值与紫外灯对于该点的能量的辐出的比值为一个常数K,该K值稳定,浮动范围小,线性关系的置信度大于99%,可以认为两个参数之间存在显著地线性关系,可以证明对于老化方程的推导和能量密度分布函数的推导合理符合实际,对于自然老化文件来说则不存在这种规律。结论可以利用这种特殊的分布规律构建一个衡量这种分布的函数来定量地确认紫外灯照射的人为老化文件。     

中国电影产业受众反应的定量分析与文化阐释

电影票房和网络评分是衡量电影产业中受众反应的重要指标。经统计学的定量分析表明,2002至2013年每年票房排名前二的国产影片,其影片票房与网络评分存在线性关系。受众是具有差异性的群体,其观影过程是复杂的解码过程,经历着各自情感的共鸣或者间离。电影的受众群体应区分为专业化的观众和大众化的观众,两者有着不同的逻辑、表述不同的话语、对票房与评分的作用也不尽相同。了解受众的心态与行为,才能更好地促进电影产业的发展。     

公安统计学教学中的实例教学法探讨

针对公安管理专业学生在学习公安统计学时普遍存在的抽象难懂、学而会用的状况，应用实例教学法可以较好地解决这一难题。这种方法既有利于培养学生阅读、理解、分析、判断统计数据的能力，又在一定程度上解决了统计学教学中长期存在的理论与实践相脱节的问题，还提高了学生的统计素养。