Perception and Politics in Intelligence Assessment: U.S. Estimates of the Soviet and "Rogue-State" Nuclear Threats

United States estimates of Soviet nuclear goals and capabilities and the current "rogue-state" nuclear threat reflected prevailing beliefs about threat within the U.S. government and the relative influence of agencies charged with threat assessment. This article establishes that the patterns in formal Soviet threat assessment: (i) did not reflect a uniform response to "external threat," (ii) were inevitably tied to underlying assumptions about adversary intent, and (iii) were susceptible then to perceptual, organizational, and/or political influences within government. Thus, threat assessments reflected the optimism and pessimism—and political interests and ideologies—of those who participated in the estimating process. The article concludes by examining these lessons in light of the experiences and challenges of assessing threat from small states harboring nuclear ambitions.     

对教学辅助“课件”辅助教学作用的分析

教学辅助手段的远用,为教育改革、教学创新,提供了英雄用武之地。但一味追求形式,追求艺术性的完美,就逐渐失去了教学辅助作用的真实意义。应还辅助教学手段一个本来的面目。     

Perfect Failure: the USA,Cuba and the Bay of Pigs, 1961

In 1961 the US Central Intelligence Agency master‐minded a sea‐borne invasion by Cuban exiles aimed at overthrowing the regime headed by Fidel Castro. With minimal logistical support from the USA the attempted counter‐coup launched at the Bay of Pigs was an unqualified disaster: a ‘perfect failure’, in the words of an authoritative contemporary. This essay locates the fiasco in the longer history of US–Cuban relations, concentrating on the Cold War years, the history of US political intervention and subversion in Latin America, and the dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista and the rise of Castro himself—both men offering different models of Latin American caudillismo (the power and cult of military strongmen). The essay concludes with an analysis of Cuba as an issue in US domestic politics and the impact of the Bay of Pigs in consolidating the Cuban revolution and setting the framework for the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962.     

痕迹检验技术教学模式及效果研究

痕迹检验技术是公安专业学生的专业主干课程,为培养出高素质痕迹检验人才、强化教学效果,文章研究了痕迹检验技术的学科特点、教学模式、规律及效果。研究发现,痕迹检验学总的教学思路为精讲多练,课程设置向实验教学倾斜,教学内容实时性强、贴近实战,并已将多媒体、网络、通讯这三大现代教育技术支柱引入痕迹检验技术教学中,取得了显著的教学效果,这不仅使学生掌握了本学科最前沿的知识,而且培养了学生的创新意识和灵活运用知识的能力。     

US–European Intelligence Co-operation on Counter-Terrorism: Low Politics and Compulsion

Since 9/11, intelligence has been viewed as an integral part of a controversial 'war on terror'. The acrimonious public arguments over subjects such as Iraqi WMD assessments, secret prisons and the interrogation of detainees suggest intense transatlantic discord. Yet improbably, some of those countries that have expressed strident disagreement in public are privately the closest intelligence partners. It is argued here that we can explain this seeming paradox by viewing intelligence co-operation as a rather specialist kind of 'low politics' that is focused on practical arrangements. Intelligence is also a fissiparous activity, allowing countries to work together in one area even while they disagree about something else. Meanwhile, the pressing need to deal with a range of increasingly elusive transnational opponents—including organised crime—compels intelligence agencies to work more closely together, despite their instinctive dislike of multilateral sharing. Therefore, transatlantic intelligence co-operation will continue to deepen, despite the complex problems that it entails.     

试析俄罗斯的宪政转轨:一个比较制度分析视角

社会交换域中传统影响和民众对民主的渴望导致了专权风格的叶利钦宪法,进而为普京时期的威权政治模式打下了基础。普京执政后,推行的这一整套相对集权的政策并不是普京的创造和发明。这种选择其实在1993年已经作出,千年以后的发展只是战术层面的一个调整,是对叶利钦时期政治遗产的整体性继承和局部性调整。原因在于,普京的作为都是在1993年宪法的框架内进行的。从法理角度看,普京当选俄罗斯总统和他的连任,是完全符合宪法准则并按照这些准则实施的,宪法制度为俄罗斯总统权力的集中提供了法律保证。俄罗斯知识界和自由民主派对普京的一系列作法颇有微词,但普京在俄罗斯社会的支持度居高不下,这种状况可以用亨廷顿的一句话来诠释:可以有秩序而无自由,但不能有自由而无秩序。[1]普京做了人民希望的事情,而不是普京自己想作的事情。     

关于我国内部审计外包的思考

我国实行内部审计外包是可行的。发展我国内部审计外包应加强内部服务的监督和规范;关注内审人员的队伍建设,推广国际注册内部审计师(CIA)考试:加强管理当局与外部审计师之间的协调沟通;企业应根据情况,选择合适的外包形式;会计师事务所应建立严格的风险控制制度。