社会结构异质性与流动儿童社会网络的建构——以同伴关系为核心

本文以同伴关系为切入点,考察社会结构异质性因素对流动儿童社会网络建构的影响。研究发现,流动儿童在同伴关系建构过程中表现出较高的主动性,交往对象呈现外向发展特征;流动儿童的兄妹数、成绩好坏、自身生活方式以及对城市居民态度的认知对其发展同伴关系的主动性有影响;流动儿童生活体验和生活环境对其发展同伴关系对象选择有影响。本文以实证研究回应了几种相悖的研究结论:布劳的肯定性结论与国内多数学者的否定性结论,系出自不同语境,各有合理性,但某些结论也需要进一步讨论。     

中国后农业税时代的“非同质性”农民

减免农业税后,处于社会转型期的中国农民越来越是一个“非同质性”的群体。另一方面,农业税的取消,并不意味着中国经历“农民的终结”,中国农民在未来二三代人的时间内是无法终结的。从这个认识出发,有必要认真研究如何面对农民的“非同质性”,研究中国新农村建设的问题。它意味着“一种联合的生活方式”开始。     

Use of subpopulation data in Australian forensic DNA casework

DNA profiling evidence presented in court should be accompanied by a reliable estimate of its evidential weight. In calculating such statistics, allele frequencies from commonly employed autosomal microsatellite loci are required. These allele frequencies should be collected at a level that appropriately represents the genetic diversity that exists in the population. Typically this occurs at broadly defined bio-geographic categories, such as Caucasian or Asian. Datasets are commonly administered at the jurisdictional level. This paper focuses on Australian jurisdictions and assesses whether this current practice is appropriate for Aboriginal Australian and Caucasian populations alike. In keeping with other studies we observe negligible differences between Caucasian populations within Australia when segregated geographically. However segregation of Aboriginal Australian population data along contemporary State and Territory lines appears to mask the diversity that exists within this subpopulation. For this reason datasets collated along more traditional lines may be more appropriate, particularly to distinguish the most genetically differentiated populations residing in the north of the continent.     

The death penalty: Down but not out in the summer of '02

This paper discusses questions of borders, communities, and refugees through an examination of the work of film director Theo Angelopoulos, in particular his so‐called “Balkan trilogy,” which includes Eternity and a Day. In these films, Angelopoulos looks at the nature of borders and communities and at what they do to people in general and refugees in particular. I argue that the refugees cannot be placed in any straightforward fashion according to the logics of political sovereignty and national divisions. They are a heterogeneous excess from the constitution of borders and divisions, yet by making visible this heterogeneity, Angelopoulos shows the contingency of political and national borders. As a consequence, the critique of the injustices resulting from existing borders must start from what is heterogeneous to them. Only in this way is it possible to transform existing structures. However, this does not mean that politics should aim simply at the elimination of borders and exclusion. Rather, we must accept the ineradicability of borders and exclusion while contesting any particular ones.     

Party registration and party self-identification: Exploring the role of electoral institutions in attitudes and behaviors

How do electoral institutions affect self-identified partisanship? I hypothesize that party registration acts to anchor a person's party identification, tying a person to a political party even when their underlying preferences may align them with the other party. Estimating a random effects multinomial logit model, I find individuals registered with a party are more likely to self-identify with that party and away from the other party. Party registration also affects voting in presidential elections but not in House elections, leading to greater defection in the former where voters have more information about the candidates. These insights illuminate varying rates of electoral realignment, particularly among southern states, and the makeup of primary electorates in states with and without party registration.     

全球化背景下东亚一体化理论适用问题探讨

区域经济一体化传统模式是以“同质”成员体为基础,通过区内核心力量协调成员利益来实现区域机制共建,但它无法适用“异质”成员的东亚一体化。然而,经济全球化的纵深发展逐渐放松传统模式的约束条件,推动着区域一体化的制度创新。由此,东亚一体化可以突破传统模式而前行,其成功与否取决于如何设计区域制度、降低制度变迁供给主体的政治成本以及发挥区域的吸引力与全球化并行不悖等理论性问题。     

The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

Through thick and thin? The dynamics of government support across income groups during economic crises

Students of economic voting have recently made substantial progress in their understanding of when the economy is and is not likely to impact election outcomes. Our knowledge of the lower level dynamics that drive these aggregate results remains fairly murky. In this paper we test competing theoretical claims about how individual level orientations toward political economy lead to observed aggregate trends in support for incumbent politicians. We do this with models of support for the Labour Party in the United Kingdom before and during the recent global economic turndown.     

Time-of-voting decision and susceptibility to campaign effects

There is mounting evidence that election campaigns matter. There are also reasons to expect interpersonal heterogeneity in the susceptibility to campaign influence. Time-of-voting decision has been suggested as a key mediating variable for campaign effects. However, there is no persuasive empirical evidence to substantiate the claim that people who decide during campaigns actually respond to campaign events or campaign-specific information.This study incorporates time of decision into dynamic models of campaign effects in order to test whether there is a significant interaction effect between time of decision and campaign persuasion. In sum, the vote intentions of campaign deciders are indeed more volatile because they respond to actual campaign events and coverage, not because they fluctuate haphazardly. People who say they decided before the campaign are, reassuringly, not influenced by campaigns.     

俄罗斯在八国集团中的异质性评析

2002年饿罗斯艰难地加入八国集团,但是它与其他成员之间的矛盾重重,在八国集团中的异质性表现越来越突出.八国集团的目标是"自由贸易和民主",根据欧洲智库外交政策中心制定的评估体系进行考核可以发现:俄罗斯的经济规模不利于其加入G8;根据1975年G6成立宣言中列出的承诺与原则,俄罗斯在政治上和经济上都不算是民主和自由的;饿罗斯成为G8成员国是不符合常规的;其他的G8成员国也必须制定出具体的政策,以促使俄罗斯实现其承诺.