Composite Machine Learning Algorithm for Material Sourcing,

This study developed a composite machine learning algorithm for attribution of materials of forensic interest (like ammonium nitrate) to original sources. k-nearest neighbor and random forest models were used for source elimination and classification, respectively, in a two-step, composite algorithm based on particle color, size/shape, and trace element concentration features. Novel approaches for simulation to supplement within-source reference features based on empirically measured multi-lot analyses, an improved hold-one-lot-out method for cross-validation, an assessment of the likelihood of the presence of a reference sample, fusion of the source probabilities from the respective classification models, and the calculation of metrics for assessing ensemble sourcing performance are described. Excellent sourcing predictions were obtained; the sourcing algorithm identified the correct source as the top choice 89% of the time, and the correct source was identified to be an average of 2.7 times more likely than the most likely incorrect source.     

也谈南海断续线的法律性质

南海断续线的法律性质对于澄清南海问题的实质及问题的解决具有重要意义。综合各种因素考虑,其作为岛屿(礁)归属线的性质可以确证,而海上国界线、历史性水域线及历史性权利线等表述均存在瑕疵,为巩固我国对线内水域的权利主张,除岛屿(礁)归属线外,将其同时界定为可管辖水域线较为可取。     

生态良知在个体本位中的存在样态

生态良知是人与自然相互作用的产物。生态良知是从生存论意义上探析人与自然之间关系而产生的一种＂善＂的观念,它随着社会的发展而呈现出不同的存在样态。从差异论的视角分析,个体化社会是社会差异化发展的产物,生态良知则是在人与自然的差异中产生和发展的。由于现代人与自然的差异片面扩大,生态良知在个体本位中的存在样态便呈隐性状态,这是个性张扬的结果。因此,人与自然之间的同一性是生态良知存在的根基,理性地考察个体本位中的生态良知,对于当代更好地协调人与自然的关系具有深远的意义。     

决策者到底如何归因?——一项基于美国外交档案的研究

面对充满不确定性的世界。个体通常通过一种被称为归因的心理机制从不完全的信息中解释他人做出某种行为的原因。类似但更为特殊的心理机制也会发生在当一个国家的决策者需要理解另一个国家的行为以采取某种应对之策的时候。当外交决策者们在试图解释他国的行为时,他们会将哪些变量纳入他们的考虑范畴?他们对他国行为进行归因的方式是否会因情境的不同而有所变化?如果确实有所变化,那么他们在归因时将会存在哪些倾向和偏见?外交决策者通常从能力、决心、利益、意图和该国所处的战略环境五个维度来认知另一个国家行为的原因。而恐惧和族群中心主义均会作用于这五个维度,并且在不同的情境下,两者在各维度的作用方式有所差异。为了验证唐世平提出的行为归因理论,作者采用了一种特殊的内容分析技术——逐字解释文本分析——对1945-1947年间的美国外交档案进行了分析和编码,试图利用二战结束至冷战开始这段时间内美国的主要决策者对苏联行为所进行的数以百计的归因,并对上述归因理论进行经验上的探索。验证结果表明,描述性的证据分析部分支持了这一新的归因理论,但也挑战了这一理论中关于能力、决心和环境维度的部分推断。     

哥萨克的起源与社会属性分析 一种哥萨克学的研究视角

20世纪末,随着苏联的解体,哥萨克问题成为俄罗斯社会焦点之一,哥萨克研究进入一个新的阶段,并形成一门新的学科:哥萨克学。由于诸多因素,目前国内哥萨克学的研究尚不充分,对哥萨克的认识比较粗略和模糊,特别是关于哥萨克的起源和社会属性问题。这种状况制约了对哥萨克历史、文化、文学等方面的研究。哥萨克的起源和社会属性问题是哥萨克学研究首要解决的问题,也是学者争议比较大的问题。系统地研究这两个问题,可以为进一步研究哥萨克学提供基础性学术资料。哥萨克学也可以为俄罗斯研究提供一个新的视角。     

POLICE RESPONSE TO DOMESTIC VIOLENCE: SITUATIONS INVOLVING VETERANS EXHIBITING SIGNS OF MENTAL ILLNESS*

Drawing on attribution theory, research on police discretion, and public attitudes toward mental illness, we examine attributional processes in police decision making in response to domestic violence situations involving veterans and nonveterans with signs of mental illness. Using data from experimental vignettes varying veteran status, victim injury, and suspect compliance administered to a sample of 309 police officers, the results indicate that 1) veterans are perceived as less responsible for troublesome behavior but more dangerous than nonveterans, 2) suspects’ veteran status has a significant effect on officers’ preference for mental health treatment versus arrest, and 3) part of the effect of veteran status on officer response is mediated by internal and external attributions for problematic behavior and by perceptions of dangerousness. The study empirically demonstrates countervailing processes in police decision making—recognition of the causes for troublesome behavior and the need for mental health treatment on the one hand and concern for community safety and enforcing the law on the other.     

Norms,Behavioral Compliance,and Status Attribution in International Politics

Extant work on status attribution has largely focused on major powers or state capabilities as key explanatory factors driving these social processes and suggests that status considerations increase conflicts between states. We argue for a more comprehensive approach to status attribution that considers international norms as another major factor that is weighed in the attribution process. We contend that states (policymakers) evaluate one another not only on the basis of economic and military capabilities but also on the extent to which there is behavioral conformance with normative expectations and reward one another dependent upon whether these expectations are met. However, this attribution of status is dependent upon the level of contestation pertaining to that norm. Using a data set that assesses consistency with six different norms (resource transference, multilateralism, economic liberalism, democratic governance, respect for human rights, and peaceful dispute resolution), we find that status attribution is associated with norm-consistent behavior but only when these norms are uncontested at the global level.     

共犯的共犯初论

共犯的共犯是刑法理论和刑法立法上的"冷僻"地带。大陆法系国家的刑法理论纵然对其有些许论述,但依然难以称得上"系统"。对于共犯的共犯之概念,国内外刑法学界都未给出明确界定,而仅有一些"轻描淡写"的解释性表述。至于共犯的共犯之分类、理论归属、认识错误以及刑事责任的把握,则是整个刑法学界未有深入探讨的问题。然共犯的共犯在现实生活中并非仅存于想象之中,其依然会出现在各类共同犯罪之中,故对共犯的共犯诸问题的讨论对刑法理论的完善和司法实践中相关问题的解决大有裨益。     

韦纳归因理论在警察工作中的应用

韦纳的归因理论认为,归因方式不同,个体的行为反应和情感反应也不同。就警察来说,不同的归因方式会影响到警察的情感、成就期望和动机、团队归属感和认同感,进而影响到警察队伍的集体效能感。韦纳的归因理论可以广泛应用于警察选拔、培训和工作激励,帮助警察形成积极的归因方式,提高警察的自信心和工作积极性,进而提高整个警察队伍的集体效能感。     

从客观归因到主观归责

在中国现行刑法的明文规定和犯罪构成四要件的解说体系下，对因果关系及刑事责任的确定应遵循从客观归因到主观归责的分析进路。所谓客观归因，即对因果关系的判断只是确定行为人承担刑事责任的客观基础，故采用“条件说”即能以最简捷方法予以解决，不需要引入见仁见智的各式规范判断学说；至于由此而导致的责任范围过于宽泛的问题，则可以通过对主观罪过的精确界定予以解决，在主客观相统一的更高层面最终解决对行为人是否归责的问题。