后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。

Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in the Post Western World Order

Global international society (GIS) is in a significant period of change. The longstanding Western order is under siege from several different directions including the diffusion of power, a mounting crisis within global capitalism, and a variety of shared threats from terrorism, through mass migration, to environmental change. Brexit and the election of Trump suggest that even the Anglosphere core of world order has lost its grip. I argue that the pattern of current developments points to the emergence of a post-Western world order that will be deeply pluralist. There will be no superpowers in this order, only great powers. Most of these great powers will be autistic, and there will be no real competition for global hegemony. Cultural differences will be more important than ideological ones. The paper sketches out the general contours of this order, and then explores the general implications of this for the role of nuclear weapons and deterrence in the coming decades. The main focus is on a shift from the global to regional level, and on the complex dynamics of nuclear proliferation and deterrence.