应对金融危机:从比较中看俄罗斯经济的转型与发展

1998年和2008年的两次金融危机俄罗斯都没能幸免。两次危机中,虽然诱因不同,但俄罗斯均表现出了股市下挫、银行遭遇流动性危机、卢布贬值等特征。就危机前的宏观经济背景而言,两次危机期间都发生了国际原油价格的大幅下挫,但石油价格下降的原因、幅度及其对俄罗斯造成的影响却有所不同;两次危机都使俄罗斯受负债拖累,但1998年以主权债务为主,而2008年以企业债为主。从根本上来讲,两次危机都暴露出了俄罗斯"依靠油气收益和外国低息贷款来发展经济"的致命弱点,并且显示出近十年的经济转型与发展尚未从根本上改变其经济结构和发展模式。通过两次危机的对比,也再次证明市场经验不足的转型与发展中国家一定要慎重对待金融的开放与自由化。

Coping with Financial Crisis:On Russia's Economic Transition and Development in Comparative Perspective

Russia didn't survive from the two financial crisis in 1998 and 2008.Though the reasons are different,the manifestation in Russia is the same: sharp drop in stock market,lack of liquidity of banks,devaluation of Ruble and so on.As for the pre-crisis macroeconomic background,we can see that before the two crises,there was a sharp drop in oil prices.But the causes and extent and its impacts on Russia was different.During the two crises,Russia was both carrying big debts.In 1998,it was sovereign debt,while in 2008,it was corporation debt.Fundamentally speaking,we can say that the two crisis revealed the weakness of Russia: first,economic development relies on oil and gas revenues and foreign loans at low interest rates;second,Russia's economic structure and growth pattern hasn't been changed even after almost 10 years of economic transformation and development.By comparing the two crises,we can conclude that developping and transiton countries with less expirences should be much careful with financial openness and liberalization.