Ideological cohesion between congress and the president: Does the road to the white house matter?

This study examines the impact of US presidential nomination politics on congressional‐executive relations. In particular, we pose the critical question of whether nomination reforms have had any systematic effect on the inter‐branch ideological gap. Using an indicator of liberal voting in Congress and a derived liberalism score for presidents, we analyse the ideological disparity between the branches over a 40‐year period from 1949 to 1993. Results do not support the view offered by Polsby and others that a shift toward more open and participatory decision making in the post‐reform nomination process has increased the probability that presidents will be ideologically distant from their fellow partisans in Congress. Indeed, the situation is quite the opposite, with post‐reform presidents being closer to the ideological centre of gravity of their parties in Congress than are presidents who reached the White House in the pre‐reform era.     

THE IMPACT OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES ON JAIL INCARCERATION IN MINNESOTA*

Although available empirical evidence suggests that Minnesota's Determinate Sentencing Law has had little effect on prison incarceration, it is still uncertain whether the sentencing guidelines affected jail use. A few recent studies imply that the guidelines have had a positive effect on jail incarceration rates. Accounts have pointed to preexisting trends, more severe sanctioning of repeat property offenders, and judicial concern with prison overcrowding as possible underlying causes of this observed increase. Using longitudinal data and an ARIMA study design, we investigate the validity of these competing explanations. Our findings show that the onset of the sentencing guidelines increased judicial use of the jail sanction beyond the effect of preexisting trends. In addition, the effect of mitigated dispositional departures from the no prison/prison outcome on jail use is salient only when prison population levels are high. This latter finding supports the thesis that judicial concern with prison overcrowding motivated judges to circumvent the guidelines in order to shift the burden of incarcerating offenders from the state to the local level. The policy implications of these results for determinate sentencing reform are discussed.     

在场权的功能预测与制约因素

在场权的功能主要有遏制刑讯、保障口供自愿性、提高嫌疑人防御能力和律师辩护能力、防止嫌疑人、被告人翻供等。现阶段的在场权试验及将来确立的在场权,能起的作用可能只是防止翻供,这将与改革初衷背离。现阶段及将来长时间内,确立在场权产生的消极影响可能更多。制约在场权功能发挥的因素有:刑事程序和组织上的行政治罪式设计、社会控制和刑事政策要求、官本位、办案激励与办案压力及物质科技限制。下一步刑事诉讼改革的重点应当置于条件建设和权力配置方面,而不是扩张在场权、不得强迫自证其罪权等权利。     

‘Too Much,too Indigestible,too Fast’? The Decades of Struggle for Abortion Law Reform in Northern Ireland

In July 2019, the UK Parliament voted by an overwhelming majority for fundamental reform of Northern Ireland's archaic abortion laws. Regulations implementing the reform came into effect on 25 March 2020. Drawing on extensive archival resources and a small number of interviews, we locate this extraordinary political moment in a broader historical context. We explore the factors that blocked the possibility of reform in either Westminster or Stormont for over five decades and consider what it was that had changed in 2019 to render it possible. While the measure passed in Westminster represents a radical rupture with the past, we suggest that it was anything other than sudden, rather representing the culmination of decades of sustained campaigning. We conclude by briefly discussing what this change is likely to mean for the future.     

Missing voices: polling and health care

Examining data on the recent health care legislation, we demonstrate that public opinion polls on health care should be treated with caution because of item nonresponse--or "don't know" answers--on survey questions. Far from being the great equalizer, opinion polls can actually misrepresent the attitudes of the population. First, we show that respondents with lower levels of socioeconomic resources are systematically more likely to give a "don't know" response when asked their opinion about health care legislation. Second, these same individuals are more likely to back health care reform. The result is an incomplete portrait of public opinion on the issue of health care in the United States.     

我国劳动争议解决机制批判与重构

对弱势群体的关注是社会和谐进步的表现.我国<劳动法>从颁布实行至今,已经走过十余年的风风雨雨,但现在看来,一调一裁两审的劳动争议解决机制对于保护弱势群体合法权益,已经显露出很多弊端与不足.在新的社会背景下,必须对现行劳动争议解决机制进行深入的反思与批判,大刀阔斧地进行改革,重构一个更加合理的劳动争议解决机制,才能真正体现<劳动法>的价值取向,确实维护劳动者的合法权益.     

问题与主义：近十年公安警务改革理性反思

近十年来。针对公安警务体制机制存在组织结构不合理、管理体制不顺畅、警务指挥链条过长、警务绩效低下等问题。我国多地进行了警务改革探索，形成了压缩层级型警务改革、整合功能型警务改革、创新理念型警务改革三种警务改革模式。然而这些警务改革或多或少都存在对西方警务理念的误读与盲从。导致改革中出现了一定的“水土不限”现象。要使警务改革取得实效，必须在找准我国警务改革存在问题的基础上，做好西方“主义”的引入与调适，才能再造出适应我国的优质高效的警务模式。     

The Medicare approach: political choice and American institutions

The most significant health reform in American history was the passage of Medicare in 1965, but this was an accomplishment born of defeat. Medicare was designed and understood by its early promoters as an approach to health reform, not simply as a discrete program for a distinct target population. Although Medicare incrementalism has tended to be shunted aside when the opportunities for health reform are most promising, the final years of the Johnson administration reveal previously underappreciated efforts to expand Medicare eligibility to large new population groups and offer insights into the continuing potential of Medicare incrementalism in our own time.     

Removing fuel subsidies: How can international organizations support national policy reforms?

This article investigates how international organizations can support fuel subsidy reform. Departing from earlier studies, we focus on the ability of international organizations to assist national governments directly in the enactment and implementation of national reforms. While international organizations lack the capacity to directly enforce policy or force countries to abolish subsidies, they can increase the cost of reform reversal by governments that have a preference for reform but worry about the credibility and durability of their reforms. Moreover, international organizations can support learning from peers. In practice, governments interested in subsidy reform can announce a public commitment and submit progress reports to peer review by other countries under the auspices of an international organization. We characterize the institutional design of international organizations for success, discuss the role of the civil society in the process, and offer short illustrations from recent efforts by international organizations to promote fuel subsidy reform.     

战后德国养老金制度变迁对我国的启示

事实上,中德两国养老保障制度都正在经历从现收现付向半基金积累模式的转变,也面临人口老龄化等相似状况。尽管德国养老金制度的改革过程缓慢,但所积累的经验使其在改革中充分关注了各利益群体的声音,使得每一代人都能够在较为稳定的政策中享受到养老金待遇,这一点对于我国目前正在变革中的养老保险制度而言尤为值得借鉴。     

Do laws affect attitudes? An assessment of the Norwegian prostitution law using longitudinal data

The question of whether laws affect attitudes has inspired scholars across many disciplines, but empirical knowledge is sparse. Using longitudinal survey data from Norway and Sweden, collected before and after the implementation of a Norwegian law criminalizing the purchase of sexual services, we assess the short-run effects on attitudes using a difference-in-differences approach. In the general population, the law did not affect moral attitudes toward prostitution. However, in the Norwegian capital, where prostitution was more visible before the reform, the law made people more negative toward buying sex. This supports the claim that proximity and visibility are important factors for the internalization of legal norms.     

Changing patterns of addiction and public aid receipt: tracking the unintended consequences of welfare reform

Sharp declines in welfare rolls since the passage of welfare reform legislation have led many to label it a social policy success. Using data from prereform and postreform samples of welfare applicants and recipients, as well as ethnographic data on welfare reform implementation, we examine three hypotheses based on concerns raised during the welfare reform debate about the possible effects of new policies on substance abusers and addicts: First, they would be "scared off," or discouraged from applying to aid by welfare's new requirements surrounding work and treatment. Second, they might be "weeded out," or face discrimination in the application process because of concerns about the difficulty of moving them successfully from welfare to work. Third, they might be "bumped down," or shifted to local aid programs rather than moving from welfare to self-sufficiency. Our empirical analysis finds no evidence of scaring off or weeding out, and some evidence of bumping down. Using ethnographic data, we offer some possible explanations for these findings by placing them in the context of policy change and implementation in the years following welfare reform.     

Law reform in small states†

Law reform can be a complex and challenging process in any jurisdiction. Small states face additional challenges, and some advantages, associated with a small population and land area. This article looks at how law reform agencies in small states adapt the law reform process, and the particular significance of comparative research in that context. It goes on to outline how, despite the challenges, small state and jurisdiction law reform agencies have made very considerable contributions to the law. Finally, the article assesses the particular utility of co-operation between law reform agencies, including through regional associations.     

对天津市滨海新区流动人口住房保障体系建设的思考

伴随着流动人口大规模涌入城市,其住房保障即成为一个不可回避的问题.近年来,天津市滨海新区为满足流动人口的住房需求,进行了大胆的改革和探索,初步建立起了以蓝白领公寓为代表的具有新区特色的流动人口住房保障体系.然而,滨海新区流动人口住房保障体系在建设资金、建设用地、建设配套设施等方面仍不同程度地存在着问题.为此,本文认为,应引入社会资本参与保障性住房建设,合理使用农村集体建设用地发展保障性住房,科学确定保障性住房项目选址,完善保障性住房的公共配套设施,以保证滨海新区保障性住房建设和管理的顺利进行.     

A reflection on the taxi reform in China: Innovation vs. Tradition

In contrast to the hostility shown in some other countries towards one of the most important examples of a sharing economy service, namely car hailing, China has always kept an open-minded attitude to this innovative Internet business model. After having been tolerant of unlicensed operations for years, China reformed the taxi industry by legalising car hailing in 2016. However, this process of reform was heavily affected by the political pressure generated by the drivers of traditional taxis. Following this reform, the taxi industry in China has been separated into two independent markets: one for traditional taxis and another for car hailing services. The Chinese experience provides a unique opportunity to study the sharing economy. This article comprises of a full evaluation of the abovementioned reform, with a specific focus on a number of characteristics specific to the taxi industry. We observed that quantity control of vehicles is still necessary in the Internet era due to imperfect competition and information asymmetries. Though the taxi reform in China has in some regards been beneficial, it has also had the unfortunate effect of preventing the taxi industry from taking full advantage of the benefits of the sharing economy. Consequently, we propose that the various levels of Chinese government should first establish a level playing field for traditional taxis and car hailing, and second, devise a mechanism to closely monitor the quantity of vehicles in the taxi market.     

SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,THREE STRIKES,AND THE PROBLEM OF AGING PRISON POPULATIONS: USING SIMULATION MODELING TO SEE THE FUTURE*

Research Summary: The growth of prison populations over the last three decades is a great source of concern for policy makers and observers. One mechanism by which this growth occurs is via sentencing reforms that extend length of stay for certain categories of offenders. This has the effect of aging prison populations, which is problematic for many reasons. Apart from the increased financial burdens entailed in caring for older prisoners, it is also important to consider the intent of reforms in evaluating them. Of late, sentencing reform has become increasingly focused on the selective incapacitation of dangerous offenders. Policies that have the effect of aging the prison population are problematic from this perspective due to the diminishing returns realized with respect to incapacitation as offenders age. Dynamic systems simulation analysis is employed to investigate the likely consequences of recent sentencing reforms that increase length of stay for some offenders. These analyses indicate that the effects of recent reforms may not be as dramatic as some observers have predicted, but they suggest that the consideration of alternatives to incarceration for elderly offenders is warranted from the standpoint of cost considerations as well as that of selective incapacitation. Policy Implications: The results indicate that California's Three Strikes law will not accelerate the rate of growth of the elderly prison population. However, even without increasing the proportional representation of elderly prisoners, the number of elderly prisoners is expected to grow substantially over the next three decades. These prisoners will strain criminal justice system resources while presenting little public safety threat. State criminal justice policy makers and their constituents should closely examine laws that impose very long stays without discretionary release, as these statutes may contribute to the production of elderly prisoners. This problem is particularly pronounced in Three Strikes and other habitual offender laws that use retrospective methods to identify habitual offenders. Additionally, the effects of reforms lengthening stay for some offenders must be considered in light of cumulative effects of sentencing reform resulting in changes to the demographic structure of the prison population overall. Dynamic systems simulation modeling is presented as a valuable policy‐making tool, as it allows the policy analyst to examine the potential impacts of laws in the absence of data suitable for conventional statistical analyses.     

Longitudinal effects of domestic violence on employment and welfare outcomes

This study uses longitudinal data spanning 13 years from a study of 234 adolescent mothers to evaluate the effects of cumulative domestic violence on employment and welfare use before and after welfare reform. Domestic violence increased the odds of unemployment after welfare reform, but not before; domestic violence had no effect on welfare use during any time period. Psychological distress after welfare reform was associated with unemployment, but not with welfare outcomes. Thus, the authors found that the direct effect of domestic violence on unemployment is not mediated by concurrent level of psychological distress. The relationship of psychological distress to unemployment exists only for those with a history of domestic violence. Cumulative domestic violence can have negative effects on economic capacity many years after the violence occurs, suggesting that policymakers recognize the long-term nature of the impact of domestic violence on women's capacity to be economically self-reliant.     

Obstacles to dependent health care access in Oregon: health insurance or health care?

In the 1980s, Oregon was one of a handful of "states that could not wait" for national health care reform. Oregon's chosen approach to reform was predicated on two widely accepted assumptions. First, universal access to health care is best achieved by universal access to health insurance. Second, universal access to health care could best be achieved, at least politically, by incrementally building upon the existing health care delivery and insurance system. This article questions both of these assumptions in light of Oregon's decade-long experience in trying to expand access to health care among its dependent population.     

Judicial Reform and Rationalization: The Diffusion of Court Reform Policies Among the American States

Explaining the diffusion of judicial reform policies among the American states is an elusive task. Are such policies simply part of the larger policy process revealed in the comparative state policy literature? Or b court reform a policy arena unto itself, responding to factors uniquely legal or professional in nature? Our inquiry begins with Max Weber's sociology of law from which we adopt his concept of rationalization as a schema of policy development. According to Weber, the “rationalization” of legal institutions would accompany the advancement of capitalism in modernizing nations. Thus, we might expect specific judicial reform policies expressly aimed at rationalizing the structure and process of state court systems to be closely associated with each other and with commonly accepted indicators of economic development among the states. As part of our investigation, we relate court reforms to broader policy innovations among the states, drawing on earlier “diffusion of innovations” research. Our data indicate a strong connection between judicial reform and more general patterns of innovation diffusion among the states, but provide only modest support for Weber's assertions about the rationalization of legal systems under advancing capitalism. Three of the selected reforms cluster together and are largely explainable by indicators of economic development. Two other reforms do not fit this pattern, and their “behavior” requires additional discussion and research. Thus, the diffusion of judicial reform policy is partly accounted for by factors found in explanations of general policy innovations across states, but other, as yet unidentified, factors apparently influence certain aspects of judicial reform. The connection between Max Weber's legal sociology and policy development among the American states might at first blush seem remote or tenuous. However, this article attempts to use Weber's insights into modern legal systems to (1) examine a specific area of state policy making–judicial reform–and (2) establish a connection between policy development in the court reform area and the larger literature on general policy innovation in the American states. This inquiry is inspired by the lack of theoretical integration apparent in the literature on court reform, on the one hand, and the absence of empirical analyses connecting court reform data with “diffusion of innovation” policy studies, on the other.     

Legislative Behavior in Romania: The Effect of the 2008 Romanian Electoral Reform

This article analyzes the impact of electoral rules on legislators’ rate of vote defection from their party position in legislatures while accounting for how party‐leadership strength mediates this impact. To this end it looks at the effect of the 2008 Romanian electoral reform. The reform shifted the electoral system from a closed‐list proportional representation to one in which all candidates run in single‐member districts. The analysis finds that because party leaders have maintained their leverage intact, the impact of the reform was minimal, with legislators being more likely to defect in less important votes only, in which party leaders allow defection. Also, after the reform legislators are more likely to use other means to impress their voters, such as legislative initiation and cabinet questioning. These forms of behavior are more accepted by party leaders.