Causal Complexity and Party Preference

Abstract.  Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) overlaps logistic regression in explaining events, but challenges the latter's lack of accounting for causal complexity. QCA has only to a limited degree been applied to large-N studies or individuals as cases and has not incorporated the logic of probability. QCA and logistic regression are compared with respect to logic, procedure and outcome. Political orientations from five national surveys are adapted to the requirements of the two methods. The methods are demonstrated on explanations of individuals' party preferences. QCA and logistic regression converge and overlap in identifying degrees of causal complexity, in ascertaining model significance and in identifying antecedents to party preference. Results differ in degree, not in kind. A slightly more nuanced picture emerges using the QCA approach, whereas logistic regression delivers greater parsimony. Choice of method(s) is not arbitrary. QCA can easily be used on any large-N research problem. It should apply probability when appropriate.     

Cost of ruling as a game of tones: The accumulation of bad news and incumbents’ vote loss

An extensive body of research documents how governing parties generally suffer electoral defeats. Varying explanations have been offered, most of which touch upon the liabilities of policy responsibility. Although media coverage is generally acknowledged as one of these liabilities, few empirical studies have examined how news content affect government support. Based on the fact that voters get their information about politics, policies and societal issues from the media, this article studies how the constant stream of negative news influences incumbent support over a 20-year period in Denmark. Modeling a previously untested argument on the cost of ruling, it shows that the accumulation of bad news throughout tenure exerts a substantial effect on government support.     

The Mythology of Human Rights

Abstract. A special legal status is accorded to human rights within Western liberal democracies: They enjoy a priority over other human goods and are not subjected to the majoritarian principle. The underlying assumption—the idea that there are some human values that deserve special protection—implies the need for both a normative and a conceptual justification. This paper claims that neither can be provided. The normative justification is needed to support the priority of human rights over other human goods and to rank and balance conflicting human rights, but it can't be provided because of the fact of pervasive value pluralism, the fact that human values are many, incompatible and incommensurable. The conceptual justification is needed to avoid arbitrariness in the interpretation of human rights at the adjudication stage. Such a justification is impossible, however, as the concept of human rights, and the concepts used to justify them and to solve their conflicts are “essentially contested concepts.” The paper concludes that, provided that the interpretation of human rights presupposes value judgements and political choices, the special legal status accorded to human rights is not justified.     

LABELING,LIFE CHANCES,AND ADULT CRIME: THE DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF OFFICIAL INTERVENTION IN ADOLESCENCE ON CRIME IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Scholars have recently revitalized labeling theory as a developmental theory of structural disadvantage. According to this approach, official intervention increases the probability of involvement in subsequent delinquency and deviance because intervention triggers exclusionary processes that have negative consequences for conventional opportunities. The theory predicts that official intervention in adolescence increases involvement in crime in early adulthood due to the negative effect of intervention on educational attainment and employment. Using panel data on urban males that span early adolescence through early adulthood, we find considerable support for this revised labeling approach. Official intervention in youth has a significant, positive effect on crime in early adulthood, and this effect is partly mediated by life chances such as educational achievement and employment.     

Landlord and Entrepreneur: The Shifting Roles of the State in Norwegian Oil and Gas Policy

This article discusses the shifting roles of the Norwegian state as landlord and entrepreneur in developing and maintaining its national oil and gas industry. Drawing from endogenous‐growth and small‐state theories, the article discusses the roles of the Norwegian state as infant industry developer, mature industry controller, and national company owner. The Norwegian petroleum experience shows how a nation‐state expressed clear visions and goals for an industrial sector, and took the role as leader of industrial and economic developments itself. The case argues that for a strategic national industry to be competitively developed and retained and social goals reached, a strong, comprehensive, and dynamic interaction between the state and industry, led by the state, may be necessary.     

COMMUNITY STRUCTURE AND ADOLESCENT DELINQUENCY IN ICELAND: A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS*

The current study examines the contextual effects of community structural characteristics on adolescent delinquency in Iceland, focusing on how specific individual‐level mechanisms work to mediate the contextual effects. Using multilevel data on 68 school communities and 6,458 adolescents, we find a contextual effect of community social instability (residential mobility, family disruption) on delinquency. Moreover, the findings indicate that specific individual‐level social control mechanisms (Coleman, 1988) explain a part of this effect, namely, embeddedness in community‐based social ties linking parents and adolescents and normlessness. Also, the findings indicate that the individual‐level effect of unsupervised peer activity on delinquency is contingent on embeddedness in social ties as well as on community social instability. The findings have bearing on the cross‐societal generalizability of social disorganization theory.