Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

国际海运立法中分化与协调的百年变奏——以海上货物运输承运人责任制度为视角

承运人责任制度是国际海上货物运输法律制度的核心,其发生、发展与变革无不取决于国际贸易、航海技术、运输方式等因素.基于此,我们认为:在未来的一个相当长的时期内,过失责任制应该得到维系,在过失责任制下,免责事项将逐渐醇化,举证责任将根据航运实践的特点予以合理分配,承运人的赔偿责任亦将继续得到适当的限制,从而使过失责任制得到彻底的贯彻.     

Coping with an unjust fate: The case of structural unemployment

Becoming a victim of structural unemployment means suffering an unjust fate. The present research examines the cognitive reactions subjects use to protect their belief in a just world and the related effects on their actual well-being within a sample of unemployed blue-collar workers in East Germany (all female). Results showed that the belief in a just world was positively correlated with attributing one’s unemployment to one’s own behavior and negatively with asking “why me?”, but uncorrelated with subjects’ readiness to change into another profession in order to get employed. Just world belief and depression were negatively related for those who either avoided the “why me?” question or who found an answer to it; but just world belief and depression was positively related for those women ruminating about an unanswered “why me?”. Results are consistent with the idea that the belief in a just world plays a significant role in the unemployed person’s coping process.     

Age Adjustment and Recall Bias in the Analysis of Domestic Violence Data: Methodological Improvements Through the Application of Survival Analysis Methods

This methodological paper presents the utility of survival analysis methods to provide age adjustment in the analysis of domestic violence data. These methods improve the estimation of lifetime probability of domestic violence, improve identification of patterns of first victimization over the lifespan, and provide methods of testing risk factors for first victimization while adjusting for the respondents' age. Most importantly, these methods allow a new investigation of recall bias. Results suggest that lifetime probability of abuse may have been substantially underestimated in previous studies because of problems in recall/disclosure encountered by middle-aged women.     

Stammwähler und die opportunistische Wahl parteipolitischer Programme

This article explains political radicalism by the number of voters who are biased towards a party. With little voters biased in favor of a party, this party has to rely more heavily on its programmatic distance to other parties. Because large parties – i.e.: parties with a high number of biased voters – gain votes when they move to the center of the political spectrum, parties with a lower number of voters that are biased in their favor are forced to the edges of the policy space. We draw on a computational model of political competition between four parties in a two‐dimensional policy space to investigate this relationship. We use panel corrected OLS estimates to analyze the data generated by the computer simulation. Our results substantiate the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the number of biased voters and the inclination of a party to adopt a more extreme policy stance.     

城市化进程中的选择偏差与对策

二十一世纪是城市的世纪 ,也是我国城市化进程加快发展的世纪。著名经济学家斯蒂格利茨曾断言二十一世纪有两件大事将改变世界的面貌 :一是中国的城市化 ,一是美国的高科技。然而由于我国长期的计划经济体制和官本位等封建残余思想的影响 ,城市化的进程与历史的本来规律发生了一定的偏差。     

也谈南海断续线的法律性质

南海断续线的法律性质对于澄清南海问题的实质及问题的解决具有重要意义。综合各种因素考虑,其作为岛屿(礁)归属线的性质可以确证,而海上国界线、历史性水域线及历史性权利线等表述均存在瑕疵,为巩固我国对线内水域的权利主张,除岛屿(礁)归属线外,将其同时界定为可管辖水域线较为可取。     

生态良知在个体本位中的存在样态

生态良知是人与自然相互作用的产物。生态良知是从生存论意义上探析人与自然之间关系而产生的一种＂善＂的观念,它随着社会的发展而呈现出不同的存在样态。从差异论的视角分析,个体化社会是社会差异化发展的产物,生态良知则是在人与自然的差异中产生和发展的。由于现代人与自然的差异片面扩大,生态良知在个体本位中的存在样态便呈隐性状态,这是个性张扬的结果。因此,人与自然之间的同一性是生态良知存在的根基,理性地考察个体本位中的生态良知,对于当代更好地协调人与自然的关系具有深远的意义。     

El Mercurio Lies,and La Tercera Lies More. Political Bias in Newspaper Headlines in Chile, 1994–2010

In this article we examine the presence of bias in Chile's two main daily newspapers, El Mercurio and La Tercera, both of which have historically been associated with the political right. We analyse their principal headlines in the first 100 days of rule of presidents Eduardo Frei (1994–2000), Ricardo Lagos (2000–2006), Michelle Bachelet (2006–2010) and Sebastián Piñera (2010–2014). We find that La Tercera was more critical of all these presidents than El Mercurio. In La Tercera we also identify an ideological bias in favour of Piñera as compared to the centre‐left presidents, and in El Mercurio a greater bias against Bachelet than the other presidents.