乐观主义、风险与法制现代化——评公丕祥《法制现代化的理论逻辑》

作为"法制现代化"论说的代表之作,《法制现代化的理论逻辑》一书存在着法制乐观主义倾向。无论其思想来源,对传统与现代性的看法,以及对人性改造的主张等,都带有乐观主义倾向。这种乐观主义的理论盲点集中体现在其忽视了对风险的认识。因此,需要检讨法制现代化的基本立场,对其注入社会危机、风险等理论元素。     

认定医疗过失行为的几个法则--医师的注意义务(5)

医师的过失行为本质是一种客观过失,是对医师注意义务的违反,考察医疗过失行为应合理的运用风险判断、专业判断、信赖原则来综合判断.     

Intimate Partner Violence in Extremely Poor Women: Longitudinal Patterns and Risk Markers

Despite high revalence rates of intimate partner violence in the lives of extremely poor women with dependent children, few studies have investigated the patterns of violence that occur over time, and the characteristics of women that serve as risk markers for partner violence. This paper describes patterns of domestic violence longitudinally and uses multivariate analyses to delineate childhood and adult risk markers for recent intimate partner violence in this population of women. Analyses draw upon a sample of 436 homeless and extremely poor housed mothers receiving welfare, in a mid-sized city in Massachusetts with a large Hispanic population of Puerto Rican descent and relatively fewer Blacks. We found that among women with complete longitudinal data (N=280), almost two-thirds experienced intimate partner violence at some point during their adult life by the end of study follow-up, and that the abuse before and after the baseline interview was episodic and limited over time. To examine the role of individual women's factors, while controlling for partner characteristics, we used baseline data on women who had been partnered during the past year (N=336). Among childhood predictors, we found that sexual molestation contributed most significantly to adult intimate partner violence that occurred during the past year prior to the baseline interview. Adult risk markers included inadequate emotional support from non-professionals, poor self-esteem, and a partner with substance abuse problems. Having a partner with poor work history was another independent predictor of recent abuse. Ethnicity did not significantly predict whether women were abused or not during the past year, contrary to other findings reported in the literature.     

我国地方政府债务的区域差异比较及影响因素分析北大核心SSCI

从债务规模、偿债能力和财政压力三个方面,通过均值法和比较分析方法,对我国东部地区、东北地区、中部地区和西部地区的政府债务进行区域间和区域内比较,结果显示我国地方政府债务风险的区域分布具有很大差异性。主要体现为东部地区负债率低、财政压力小,中部地区偿债能力强,西部地区债务规模增速快,东北地区偿债能力堪忧等区域特征。影响我国地方政府债务空间分布特征的经济因素主要是区域经济体量、经济增速和财政赤字率。地方政府债务监管部门应加强对地方政府债务资金使用的绩效管理,实行区域差异化的债务风险防控措施。     

Psychologists as ‘the quiet ones with the power’: understanding indeterminate sentenced prisoners’ experiences of psychological risk assessment in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Prisoners serving indeterminate sentences in the United Kingdom do not know when or if they will be released from prison. Release and progression decisions are determined by the risk the ISP presents of reoffending. This makes the assessment of risk a high stakes business for ISPs. Whilst there is a large body of literature focused on prisoners’ general experiences of prison, there is an absence of specific empirical exploration of prisoners’ experiences of risk assessment. This paper aims to address this gap by reporting the results of a qualitative exploration of ISPs’ experiences of psychological risk assessment. Interviews with 10 ISPs were conducted and analysed using Grounded Theory methods. Analysis indicated that prisoners experienced the prison environment as characterised by violence, volatility and suffering. Psychological risk assessment is embedded within this emotionally and physically challenging context but also contributes to the experience of suffering. Within this context, prisoners felt stuck, powerless and out of control in relation to risk assessment, and experienced psychologists as untrustworthy yet powerful. Understanding prisoners’ experiences is the first step in resolving some of the long-reported difficulties in working relationships between psychologists and prisoners as well as making the process more procedurally just.     

美国的商业银行管制给我们的启示

商业银行的改革方向该往何处去,对商业银行如何监管,这是摆在金融改革面前最严峻的问题,未来的商业银行可能成为城市的银行、利益集团的银行、富人的银行。如果真的这样会在中国金融业推出许多新东西,这更需要国家进行更严格的适度的监管,美国的银行监管体制一直在不断地改革和调整,他们的经验对我们仍然是很好的启示。     

2020年香港经济形势分析及未来展望

报告从宏观层面对2020年香港经济形势进行了分析,对2021年香港经济发展前景做了展望,对香港经济中期发展面临的风险和机遇进行了研判,并提出了一些对策和建议。分析表明,香港经济在2020年陷入深度衰退,在2021年将迎来复苏,复苏程度取决于疫情防控状况。香港经济未来几年的发展风险与机遇并存:一方面,中美竞争加剧、社会贫富差距加大、政府财政赤字持续等是不利因素;另一方面,我国"十四五"规划的出台和粤港澳大湾区建设的深入推进将帮助香港进一步融入国家发展大局,获得更广阔的发展空间。     

新时期建立城市治安预警的理论依据阐释及意义分析

目前，我国警学界和公安部门对治安预警没有一个统一的界定，学者们从不同角度对治安预警的内涵进行了阐述。风险社会理论、危机管理理论和客观规律理论的发展和成熟，揭示了后现代化时期风险和危机时刻存在，并且日趋国际化，对公安实战部门提出了新的挑战和要求，因此建立一套符合我国国情的治安预警机制显得十分迫切。治安预警机制的建立现实意义深远，有利于增强公安机关的应变能力，履行维护社会治安秩序的使命，有利于增强人们的安全感，同时凸显了情报信息的作用，促进和谐警民关系的构建。     

合会风险的法律控制——以中国农村民间金融安全为视角

合会作为一种民间融资形式,在一定程度上弥补了正式金融机构信贷供给的不足.国家已在政策上主张探索和利用民间融资的新试点,使民间金融发展合法化.合会固有的风险防范机制——熟人社会相互问的制约机制在当今社会有所减弱,但合会所固有的风险依然存在.从我国农村民间金融安全的角度重新审视合会的风险,在借鉴印度合会风险控制立法经验的基...     

风险的属性及其对政府重大决策社会风险评估的启示

政府的重大决策事关改革发展大局,事关社会的稳定和谐。因此,政府的重大决策应该进行社会风险评估。风险是一个心理学概念,以感知为基础,而不是以事实为基础,这种感知是以认识到的危险的质性特征而不是量化特征为基础。如果政府的重大决策具有一定的社会性风险,那么在重大决策的风险评估和管理过程中,应该考虑政策信息披露的可信性、特异性和行动信息的具体性。在政府重大决策的社会风险评估过程中,应该注意:(1)风险评估主体除了官员和专家,应该把一般民众纳入进来;(2)政府机构与普通民众之间信任关系的建立是关键;(3)在政府重大决策的社会风险评估中,应该正确使用媒体的力量;(4)树立公共优先的原则,协调重大决策各方之间的利益关系。