从尼泊尔宫廷血案看尼内政外交走向

6月1日,喜马拉雅山国尼泊尔王宫突爆惊天血案,尼泊尔王室包括国王比兰德拉在内共9人死于非命。这起宫廷喋血事件不但一度引发尼爆发大规模骚乱,而且还使本来就政治纷争、内乱不已的尼政局面临更大变数。一、宫廷惨案引发诸多猜疑与骚乱。围绕血案起因,人们猜测颇多,其中较为盛行     

尼联共（毛）的分裂、大选失利及未来政治走向

尼联共（毛）2006年回归政治主流后,始终面临内部危机和外部挑战。其内部长期存在改良派与革命派的激烈斗争,外部面对美国和印度支持下的其他议会政党的围剿。2012年6月该党发生大分裂,此次分裂成为了2013年11月尼联共（毛）大选失利的重要直接原因。尼联共（毛）的分裂和大选的失利标志着尼泊尔共产主义运动正面临很大挑战。     

浅析当前尼泊尔政局

尼泊尔政局持续动荡引起各方广泛关注。国王统治被推翻后,尼泊尔国内的主要矛盾已转变为七党联盟与尼共(毛)对国家权力的争夺。本文拟通过对尼泊尔国内主要政治力量间的博弈,以及印、美等国对尼泊尔内政外交的影响来简要分析当前该国和平重建进程中存在的主要问题及尼政局未来可能的走向。     

尼泊尔政局与中国的策略选择

从地缘政治角度看,尼泊尔对中国具有重要的战略价值和现实意义,不仅可以促进我国西部边疆稳定和国家主权安全,而且其＂转口经济＂战略与我国西部大开发战略可以形成战略互动。尼泊尔政局党派林立,政见各异;明争暗斗,合纵连横,造成议会选举与新宪法制定困难重重,直接影响本国经济发展和社会稳定。我国对尼策略应当坚持＂不干预但须有所作为＂的原则,并制定具体的外交策略、安全策略、政治策略、经济策略和文化策略,以维护我国对尼政策的法律道义、政治信誉和民族信誉,并将尼泊尔发展成为＂中国连接南亚的国际大通道＂和＂中国与南亚自由贸易区先行示范区＂。     

试析尼泊尔反政府武装的历史根源及现实影响

尼泊尔反政府武装自1996年2月发动叛乱以来,其声势逐步扩大,并大有漫延全国之势,给尼泊尔的政治、经济和人民生活等各方面造成了严重影响。本文试从尼泊尔共产党的发展历史角度分析尼反政府武装产生的历史根源及其对社会造成的现实影响。     

尼中关系的历史、现状与未来

历史上,尼泊尔与中国有着悠久、良好的文化、政治、经济关系。自1950年代两国建立正式外交关系以来,尼中进一步加强了文化交流、政治往来、经贸合作,尼中之间乃至南亚与中国之间的发展合作前景广阔。     

尼泊尔投资环境及中尼经贸现状分析

尼泊尔是我国的友好邻邦,经济发展较为落后,同时也正因为如此,尼泊尔对我国希望进军南亚的企业来说是个巨大市场。中尼之间经济具有较大的互补性,双边经贸合作存在较大的发展空间。本文主要介绍尼泊尔的贸易管理制度和投资管理制度以及中尼经贸合作的现状和影响双边经贸合作的因素等,供有关部门和企业参考。     

中国-尼泊尔经贸合作：现状、问题与对策

尼泊尔是与中国西藏毗邻的一个重要邻国，进一步加强与尼泊尔的经贸联系无疑具有重要意义。在区域一体化的推动下，中尼之间的经贸合作具有良好的发展机遇，但同时也面临一系列的问题。为此，我们必须深入分析其问题之所在，并提出应对策略，才能逐步改变中尼经贸合作中不容乐观的发展现状，推动中尼经贸关系的全面提升。     

尼泊尔政局发展及其前景

近年来尼泊尔政府频繁更迭,政局持续动荡,给尼泊尔的社会、经济等各方面造成了严重影响。如何解决各种矛盾,维护政局稳定成了尼政府面临的首要问题。本文介绍了近年来尼泊尔政局发展情况以及造成动荡的主要原因,分析了动荡造成的主要影响,并预测了尼政局的发展前景。     

尼泊尔政局现状及前景

近期,尼泊尔主要政治力量间的对立升级,威胁到联合政府的稳定.个人利益左右政党利益的政治传统、朝小野大的现实力量结构及少数族群政治活动的兴起,是尼政坛乱局的主要原因.展望未来,尼泊尔不至于再陷战火,但主要政治力量很难达成共识、同组政府,政局不稳的可能性增大,其制宪进程与和平进程很难如期完成.     

论尼泊尔与印度的关系及其发展趋势

君主制时期,尼泊尔同印度的关系绕着“控制与反控制”展开。尼泊尔建立联邦民主共和国后,政治外交政策也显示出和以往不同的灵活性,主动发展与印度的关系。普拉昌达政府旗帜鲜明地提出了发展独立自主的外交政策的政治观点,内帕尔政府从要求得到更多的经济发展自主权的角度,向印度的“控制”政策提出了反抗。     

尼泊尔新政府的政策走向及面临的挑战

随着2009年5月25日尼共（联合马列）高级领导人内帕尔宣誓就任尼泊尔联邦民主共和国第二任政府总理，尼泊尔政治危机暂告结束。内帕尔就职已有近3个月，其内外政策初见雏形。本文就内帕尔政府产生的背景、内外政策及面临的哪些挑战进行初步剖析。     

大选后的岸田文雄内阁:执政基础与政策取向

日本岸田文雄内阁的诞生,是执政的自民党为应对大选而"临阵换帅"的结果。执政联盟利用广大选民对新内阁的"政策期待",加之国内疫情趋缓、在野党势力孱弱以及选举对策缜密,从而赢得了大选。大选后岸田内阁的执政基础虽暂且趋稳,但在权力交接、路线调整及国政选举等层面上仍面临诸多严峻挑战,其政治稳定性不容乐观,实现长期执政的难度较大。随着岸田内阁施政渐次展开,其在防控疫情、强化日美同盟与推进印太战略上将保持较强的政策延续性,而在经济增长方式与国家安全保障上将实施政策调整。岸田内阁提出构筑"建设性且稳定的中日关系"并奉行现实主义对华外交方针,但其对外政策取向仍将保持涉华指向明显的惯性,经济安全保障、"人权外交"等政策主张或将加大中日关系摩擦几率。     

The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948–1998

Rivalry-related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet and Arab and Israeli domestic unrest impact the propensity for these rivals to employ hostility against each other. We specify vector autoregression (VAR) models and negative binomial event count models with monthly levels of hostility as the dependent variables for the period 1948–1998. The results provide interesting foreign policy implications regarding the impact of Israeli domestic political structures on conflict dynamics in the Middle East. There is no evidence that the foreign policy behavior of Arab states becomes risk averse when Israeli leaders might need an external scapegoat. These findings are discussed in the context of other research on enduring rivalries and strategic interaction.     

The Foreign Policy Beliefs of Political Campaign Contributors

Since the Vietnam War, scholarly interest in public and elite opinion of U.S. foreign policy has grown. Because elites generally have greater access to policy makers and more consistent political views, most work on this topic has focused on elite opinions of foreign policy. Most research has defined the term elite broadly, often placing more emphasis on social status than political power. We will reexamine elite foreign policy beliefs using a different elite, presidential campaign contributors. We have two main goals in this article. First, we will assess the differences between the foreign policy outlooks of political campaign contributors and other elites. While many types of elites may influence policy, political contributors are particularly likely to gain access to policy makers. The second part of this research note offers some food for thought on the origins of these beliefs. We present evidence that foreign policy beliefs are related to the same ideological orientations that shape contributors' views on domestic issues. The origins of foreign and domestic policy views should probably be considered together.     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

中国-印度-尼泊尔三边主义超越地缘政治的倡议

中印关系被广泛认作是一种地缘政治上的力量均势关系或是亚洲两个正在崛起的大国之间的对抗关系。在这一背景下,作者从尼泊尔的角度阐述中国、印度和尼泊尔之间的三边合作设想,探讨中印之间竞争与合作的主要变化趋势,认为这些变化趋势在某些领域可能会向它们的邻居尼泊尔提供持续获益的机会。当代尼泊尔外交政策思路中最有趣的一点就是尼泊尔努力在三边框架范围内扮演促成中印协作关系的催化剂角色,从而使尼泊尔自身的地理位置成为一种优势,并使尼泊尔自身获得体面的中等区域国家的地位。从理论上讲,这一想法可以使尼泊尔从冲突一线的前哨转变为国际枢纽的角色。     

尼泊尔共产党（毛主义）执政后的对外政策走向

新近执政的尼泊尔共产党（毛主义）从新生共和国的国家安全和国家利益出发，适时调整对外政策，奉行更加务实的、灵活的大国平衡外交，其对外政策的核心是调整、发展与印度、中国和美国等大国的关系，以荻取大国经济和政治支持。     

Domestic political conflict,issue areas,and some dimensions of foreign policy behavior other than conflict∗

This paper examines the seemingly complex linkage between domestic political conflict and external behavior by broadening our consideration of foreign policy behavior. Underlying this analysis is a view that there are elements of both assertiveness and caution in the political use of foreign policy by domestically threatened leaders. They act assertively to divert attention away from domestic issues and enhance the image of their regime, but at the same time they are likely to show some restraint in order to avoid costly military and economic reactions by foreign actors. It is hypothesized that domestic conflict affects the degree of independence, commitment, and intensity in a nation's foreign policy behavior, but no so much its foreign conflict. Supplementing this, the mediating role of another foreign policy property, substantive issue area, is examined as a means of identifying conditions under which the impact of internal unrest would be greatest. The results of the analysis are mixed, but they do lend credibility to the idea that domestic conflict is related to multiple dimensions of foreign policy. More broadly, they suggest that governments employ different foreign policy strategies in coping with different types of domestic political conflict.     

The “Culture Wars” go global: Three cases of religious conflict in foreign policy

Religious identities based on both religious tradition and religious commitment have been increasingly influential in domestic U.S. politics for several decades, but the assumption remains that such identities are mostly unrelated to foreign policy. The authors suggest that domestic political incentives to expand the culture wars have combined with other trends, including the increasing use of unilateral executive power in foreign policy, to create an environment in which policymakers increasingly are tempted to make foreign policy based on domestic political incentives. Three case studies are highlighted: the “Mexico City” policy requiring foreign non-governmental organizations (NGOs) receiving U.S. aid money to pledge not to provide or educate about abortion, moving the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and efforts in the Trump administration to ban travel to the United States from majority-Muslim nations.