印巴关系缓和现状与前景北大核心CSSCISSCI

印度和巴基斯坦于2011年2月刚刚宣布将在7月之前恢复因2008年孟买恐怖袭击事件而中断的和平谈判,但5月又因美国越境在巴基斯坦击毙本·拉丹事件而变数陡增。5月30日,印巴两国重开国防秘书级会谈,终于实现了恢复和平对话进程的第一步。自2004年启动和平进程以来,迄今印巴已经进行了四轮"全面对话",两国持续多年的紧张关系明显得到改善,这是其各自国内政治、经济、军事和外交等方面现实发展的需要,也与大国尤其是美国推动和谈所发挥的作用有关。目前,两国关系正面临拉丹之死所引发多重危机的考验,同时印巴核因素、印度崛起以及美国反恐战争、美国与印巴关系等仍在制约着印巴和平进程。印巴关系尽管在向缓和的方向发展,但在克什米尔争端这一"核心"问题上近期难有突破性进展。     

印巴关系缓和现状与前景

印度和巴基斯坦于2011年2月刚刚宣布将在7月之前恢复因2008年孟买恐怖袭击事件而中断的和平谈判,但5月又因美国越境在巴基斯坦击毙本·拉丹事件而变数陡增.5月30日,印巴两国重开国防秘书级会谈,终于实现了恢复和平对话进程的第一步.自2004年启动和平进程以来,迄今印巴已经进行了四轮“全面对话”,两国持续多年的紧张关系明显得到改善,这是其各自国内政治、经济、军事和外交等方面现实发展的需要,也与大国尤其是美国推动和谈所发挥的作用有关.目前,两国关系正面临拉丹之死所引发多重危机的考验,同时印巴核因素、印度崛起以及美国反恐战争、美国与印巴关系等仍在制约着印巴和平进程.印巴关系尽管在向缓和的方向发展,但在克什米尔争端这一“核心”问题上近期难有突破性进展.     

印巴关系回暖及其前景

2011年以来,印度与巴基斯坦关系回暖势头明显。双方重启对话,承诺以和平方式解决各种矛盾,加大经贸合作力度,并推进民间往来。印巴关系回暖是南亚地缘战略环境变化及印巴两国内在发展需求共同推动的结果。但是,由于印巴两国矛盾根深蒂固,在领土争端、反恐等问题上的立场差距较大,印巴关系的缓和仍显脆弱,极易被突发事件打断。     

1997年的南亚形势和今后展望

1997年世界多极化趋势加速发展,这在南亚也有明显的反映。美国和俄国都加强了同印度、巴基斯坦的关系,并以印度为重点。随着中美关系的改善,中俄关系的发展,中美俄印四大国之间的相互关系进一步朝均衡的方向发展。这对维护南亚的和平与稳定十分有利。印巴恢复政治对话,使印巴关系趋向缓和。印同其他邻国关系也继续改善。南亚区域合作进程加快。但南亚各国在国内普遍受到各种政治、经济、社会问题的困扰,对这些国家的发展带来十分不利的影响。     

关于印巴和平进程的思考

一、近两年印巴和平进程加快。自2003年4月印度总理瓦杰帕伊在克什米尔发表重要讲话以来，印巴和平进程出现可喜的进展。同年印巴恢复互派高级专员(即大使)，恢复了公路和铁路交通，两国一些代表团进行了互访。2003年11月，印巴双方在克什米尔实现停火。2004年1月，印度总理瓦杰帕伊利用出席在伊斯兰堡举行的第十二届南亚区域合作联盟首脑会议的机会，同巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫、总理贾迈利举行了会晤，双方决定全面恢复印巴对话。印巴双方在2004年1月恢复了空中航线。     

印巴关系新态势：进展、动因及走向

2012年9月7—9日，印度外长访问巴基斯坦，印巴外长会晤，双方回顾总结了孟买袭击案后第二轮全面对话新成果。较前两次外长会晤，本次会晤取得新的进展。除新签协定等成果性进展外，双方也在程序性安排上达成众多共识，值得欢迎。印巴关系新态势是在大国际战略调整、印巴国内出现新情况的背景下进行的。印巴关系近期走向取决于四大看点，值得关注。     

巴基斯坦外交战略抉择及其困难

在南亚舞台上，印度和巴基斯坦无可争辩地扮演着极其重要的角色，印巴关系的好坏从根本上决定了南亚安全环境的好坏。然而，对巴基斯坦来说，1947年印巴分治固然是巴基斯坦的胜利，但分治也不可避免地导致地区力量的结构性失衡，特别是1971年印度成功地肢解巴基斯坦后，印巴力量对比的差距进一步扩大。     

印巴关系缓和初析

2004年新年伊始,印度总理瓦杰帕伊和巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫在共同出席南亚区域合作联盟(简称南盟)首脑会议时,实现了双方最高级别的会晤,再次书写了印巴改善关系的“新篇章”。根据双方签署的联合声明,两国定于2004年2月恢复对话。印方明确表示对话将包括克什米尔问题;巴方承诺禁止恐怖分子利用其领土向印控区发动袭     

克什米尔争端之原委

克什米尔问题使印度和巴基斯坦长期交恶,两国为此两度兵戎相见,第三次印巴战争期间,两国再次在此激战。印巴双方虽多次尝试改善关系,并几度举行首脑会晤,但终因此一问题无法化解,关系紧张依旧。克什米尔问题已成印巴关系中的“难解之结”。     

印巴关系中的宗教和民族因素初探

1月17-18日,印度和巴基斯坦两国外交秘书在新德里就和平与安全、克什米尔等问题进行对话,拉开了印巴今年第三轮"全面对话"的序幕.     

Transnational Dialogue in an Age of Terror

11 September led many people to dismiss the prospects for a meaningful dialogue between Islam and the West. This article argues that the terrorist attacks against the United States also created the potential for a new kind of dialogue by initiating a virtually unprecedented issue-specific global public sphere focused on the question of the relations between Islam and the West. It draws on Habermas to consider the potential for dialogue under contemporary conditions. By examining the constructivist foundations of both Islamist and neoconservative approaches to international politics, this article posits both a demand for and an important potential supply for a meaningful dialogue. In particular, it discusses the intense and important public arguments within the Islamic world about the concept of dialogue and its political possibilities. It focuses upon the internal arguments between moderates and extremists on both sides, and considers how dialogue (or its absence) can change the terms of the interaction by breaking the monopoly over representation claimed by – and too often granted to – radicals.     

Cultivating Dialogue: From Fragmentation to Relationality in Conflict Interaction

This article builds on the tendency in recent decades in the field of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) to analyze conflict and its transformation from a relational perspective. It surveys developments in twentieth‐century philosophy that support the ongoing quest to explore the self in ADR from a relational perspective. It then shows how the concept of dialogue provides a framework for understanding conflict transformation from a relational perspective, by exploring the relational foundations of dialogue. It also draws a connection between the growing use of mindfulness practices in conflict settings and the practice of dialogue, suggesting that Buddhist philosophy and practices can help cultivate relational awareness and dialogue. The article therefore suggests that incorporating dialogue and exploring its relational characteristics can assist ADR scholars and practitioners to develop further practices that can promote collaboration by shifting disputants from adversarial and fragmented orientations to more relational mindsets.     

Negotiated Exits from Organized Crime? Building Peace in Conflict and Crime‐affected Contexts

This article contributes to a growing discussion in peace mediation and peacebuilding circles about the issue of dialogue and negotiation with organized crime groups. The article seeks to demystify this issue by exploring the range of practice from confrontation to accommodation and transformation. The article argues that there is nothing unusual about engaging in dialogue and negotiation with organized crime groups and that those strategies have been used for decades in crime and violence reduction efforts in urban and civil war settings. In their quest to resolve conflict in violent and fragile contexts, mediators and negotiators can adapt existing peacebuilding practice to help structure dialogue processes with organized crime groups.     

Remembering violence: the role of apology and dialogue in Turkey's democratization process

In this article I ask the question: how do citizens use memories of violence in dialogue with a democratizing Turkish state? To address this, I unpack how memories of violence influence solidarity communities in addition to those who are direct descendents of survivors. I also examine how these solidarity communities are widening political space for contemporary dialogue about the Armenian Catastrophe. To demonstrate the connection between memory and political participation, I identify three discursive moments where Turkish and Armenian citizens invoke memory in dialogue with one other and with the state. I use the 2009 online campaign for a Turkish apology to address the Armenian Catastrophe, the aftermath of the murder of Hrant Dink in 2007, and a controversial 2005 academic conference on the events of 1915 as focal points to discuss how memory impacts the way people behave as citizens. My argument is twofold: first, elite-led solidarity networks play an integral role in shaping the discursive space between citizens, the state, and the international community; and second, dialogue about memory can grow space for citizen participation in Turkey.     

WorldWideWhale.Globalisation/Dialogue of Cultures?

This article questions the assumption that globalisation has fostered cultural dialogue. In order to understand how globalisation has specifically impacted the sphere of the cultural, it starts by examining the way cultural practises are transformed in its wake. Does globalisation yield new, global forms of culture? To address this conundrum, this article takes the example of a cultural movement that has sought to project itself on a global scale, the anti-whaling culture, exploring both its origins and the distinctive cultural forms it has constituted. It then raises anew the question of dialogue: what of the dialogue between this global anti-whaling movement and local cultures where whaling still occurs? And how does such 'global culture' negotiate with demands for cultural diversity?     

Interfaith dialogue in global perspective and the necessity of youth involvement

In today’s global landscape, the success of interfaith initiatives is ascertained when their intended aim is envisioned and clarified. This article claims that the truest aim of interfaith dialogue in global perspective is the mutual transformation of cultural and religious realities, maintaining that when this vision becomes the underpinning informing the context of dialogue then interfaith engagement is elevated to an authentic spiritual practice effective across religious borders, assuring its destination in the advancement of intercultural relations and culture in general. Today, interfaith dialogue ought to focus more on common responses to global issues rather than differences among traditions; unimpeded, it can then engage mutual transformation for the benefit of all, achieving also significant steps toward transforming stultifying paradigms of present interreligious discourse. Positive change forwarding harmonious coexistence is an ongoing process involving the work of many generations. Steadfast youth involvement in interfaith dialogue is deemed imperative for sustainable harmony and peace.     

Concepts of dialogue as counterterrorism: narrating the self-reform of the Muslim Other

Since 9/11, the terrorist is often awarded the position of the radical Other: the personified existential threat to the West. The counterterrorism strategy presented by the Danish government describes itself as covering a ‘broad spectrum’ of efforts. It includes an ‘active foreign policy’ in relation to the Muslim world and an ‘active integration policy’ in relation to Muslim migrants. Both inside and outside the nation-state, efforts range from ‘hard power’ security strategies of elimination and control involving military, police and intelligence operations, to ‘soft power’ strategies of information, partnerships and dialogue. This article analyses Danish counterterrorism policy narratives to identify the concepts of dialogue implied and the positions awarded to less-than-radical Muslim Others. This article finds that Muslims might – especially after the Danish Muhammad cartoon affair – in counterterrorism dialogue find a position for talking back, even if it is still a position circumscribed by control and securitisation.     

People‐to‐People Dialogue between North and South Korea: Looking Ahead

The division in the Korean peninsula has lasted more than a half century, and the people on both sides have become quite different in their values, beliefs, behaviors, and lifestyles. As the two sides have increased their exchanges and communications for the last several years, the biggest challenge Korea and its people face is: “How should human relationships be rebuilt after suffering from chronic conflicts between adversary states?” This article considers track two diplomacy/people‐to‐people dialogue as a response to this question and reviews the issues and obstacles related to initiating such a dialogue.     

Critical Moments as Relational Moments: The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and the Conflict in Aceh, Indonesia

Comments about the role of the mediator made by Lakhdar Brahimi, United Nations Special Envoy to Afghanistan, frame this inquiry into the relational milieu favorable to dialogue that explores a series of facilitated discussions between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Republic of Indonesia convened by the Henry Dunant Centre (HDC). Participants were interviewed as part of an oral history project investigating critical moments in negotiation. This method permitted an in-depth study of a dialogue process as it was understood by the parties themselves, and highlighted the distinctive perspectives practitioners bring to bear with respect to accounting for decisive shifts in negotiation. Critical moments, for this dialogue community, included both macrolevel turning points and microlevel relational exchanges. Attention to the microprocess of exchanges deemed critical by participants suggests the crucial roles played by the practitioners' attitudes and relational dispositions.     

中国参与东亚多边安全合作及其理论分析——以东亚多边安全对话机制为例

冷战后,东亚地区兴起了以各种多边安全对话机制为代表的多边安全合作模式。中国在10多年的参与过程中坚持东盟主导,遵循“不干涉他国内政、协商一致和灵活非正式”的东盟原则,重点加强在非传统安全领域的务实合作和防务对话,主张以建立信任措施为主要目的并探讨符合东亚特征的预防性外交。文章认为,中国应以主人翁姿态参与东亚安全合作,并以“10＋1”和“10＋3”机制为基础,广泛推进地区安全合作议程的创设,为东亚多边安全机制提供足够的物力、财力和智力支持。