Methodological and theoretical implications of using subjectgenerated consequences in tests of rational choice theory

Previous research on rational choice theory has typically asked subjects to evaluate the impact of research-derived consequences on offending likelihood using a hypothetical scenario design. However, this procedure may not produce results that accurately reflect the subjects' actual consideration of consequences. In this study, subjects were allowed to develop their own set of potential consequences in response to two hypothetical offending scenarios. The results support the use of this innovative technique, but also revealed many types of consequences that were not commonly used in previous tests of the theory. Limitations of the study and implications for future tests of rational choice theory are discussed.     

Methodological artifacts in tests of rational choice theory

Criminal decision making is an inherently natural and highly individualized process; however, rather than allowing participants to self-identify the costs and benefits that impact their own decisions to offend, rational choice researchers have typically provided participants with a uniform list of consequences to consider. Indirect evidence suggests this technique may alter the participants’ perceptions of consequences, yet no study to date has examined this supposition directly. In the current study, participants were randomly assigned to experimental conditions in which they either received a list of traditional costs and benefits to assess or were asked to self-generate their own list to assess. As in past research, when participants were allowed to self-generated consequences they identified several “novel” costs/benefits that have certainty/severity rating comparable to many of the traditionally examined consequences. Results also showed that consequences are more likely to be perceived as possible outcomes (i.e., receive a non-zero probability) when they are presented by researchers than when they are self-generated. Finally, the average certainty and severity of negative consequences do not differ across condition, while ratings of the certainty and value of benefits from crime are relatively lower when they are presented by researchers. Implications for rational choice theory and survey research in criminology more broadly are discussed.     

GENERATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CRIME: USING SIMULATION TO TEST CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORY*

This study demonstrates that computational modeling and, in particular, agent‐based modeling (ABM) offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars. ABM can be used as a means to operationalize and test hypothetical mechanisms that offer a potential explanation for commonly observed criminological phenomena. This study tests whether the hypothesized mechanisms of environmental criminology are sufficient to produce several commonly observed characteristics of crime. We present an ABM of residential burglary, simulating a world inhabited by potential targets and offenders who behave according to the theoretical propositions of environmental criminology. A series of simulated experiments examining the impact of these mechanisms on patterns of offending are performed. The outputs of these simulations then are compared with several well‐established findings derived from empirical studies of residential burglary, including the spatial concentration of crime, repeat victimization, and the journey to crime curve. The results from this research demonstrate that the propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, and crime pattern theory provide a viable generative explanation for several independent characteristics of crime.     

Beyond the "science of sophomores": does the rational choice explanation of crime generalize from university students to an actual offender sample?

Much of the criminological literature testing rational choice theory has utilized hypothetical scenarios presented to university students. Although this research generally supports rational choice theory, a common criticism is that conclusions from these studies may not generalize to samples of actual offenders. This study proceeds to examine this issue in two steps. First, a traditional sample of university students is examined to determine how various costs and benefits relate to their hypothetical likelihood of offending. Then the same data collection procedures are employed with a somewhat different sample of younger, adjudicated, and institutionalized offenders to determine whether the conclusions drawn from the student sample generalize to this offender sample. Results generally suggest that the content and process of hypothetical criminal decision making differ in the sample of known offenders relative to the university students. Limitations of the current study, as well as suggestions for future research, are discussed.     

Perceived arrest risk,psychic rewards,and offense specialization: A partial test of rational choice theory†

In prior tests of Beckerian rational choice theory, the notion that individuals are responsive to the (dis)incentives associated with crime has been supported. Much of this research has comprised composite scores of perceived rewards and risks of multiple, often disparate, crime types that are then used to predict “general” offending behavior. Although the results of such prior tests are informative, we believe that this tendency has resulted in two shortcomings. First, a central component of mathematical rational choice theory is overlooked, namely, that responsivity to incentives will be crime specific. That is, offenders should prefer crime types that subjectively offer greater rewards and fewer risks relative to other crimes. Second, individual differences in offending specialization are not addressed, of which Clarke and Cornish (1985) and Shover (1996) argued rational choice theories are well suited to explain. Using a sample of serious offenders, we find that in a given time period, individuals are more likely to engage in crime types they viewed as more intrinsically rewarding and less risky compared with other crimes. Furthermore, individuals displayed greater specialization in violence to the extent they view violence as more rewarding and less risky than property offenses     

We all want it, but we don't know what it is: toward a standard of affordability for health insurance premiums

The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (P.L. 111-148), or ACA, requires that U.S. citizens either purchase health insurance or pay a fine. To offset the financial burden for lower-income households, it also provides subsidies to ensure that health insurance premiums are affordable. However, relatively little work has been done on how such affordability standards should be set. The existing literature on affordability is not grounded in social norms and has methodological and theoretical flaws. To address these issues, we developed a series of hypothetical vignettes in which individual and household sociodemographic characteristics were varied. We then convened a panel of eighteen experts with extensive experience in affordability standards to evaluate the extent to which each vignette character could afford to pay for one of two health insurance plans. The panel varied with respect to political ideology and discipline. We find that there was considerable disagreement about how affordability is defined. There was also disagreement about what might be included in an affordability standard, with substantive debate surrounding whether savings, debt, education, or single parenthood is relevant. There was also substantial variation in experts' assessed affordability scores. Nevertheless, median expert affordability assessments were not far from those of ACA.     

Understanding offense specialization and versatility: A reapplication of the rational choice perspective

An understanding of offender specialization and versatility offers benefit to both criminal justice policy and theoretical foundations. The majority of research examining offending specialization/versatility, however, sought to inform crime policy. Accordingly, there was little theoretical insight as to why individuals might engage in more specialized offending, or instead, diversify in their criminal participation. An earlier application of rational choice theory to the offending specialization — versatility issue was premised on the idea that the theory inherently predicted specialization in offending. Other interpretations offered it as a heuristic tool for understanding both crime specialization and versatility. The findings from a series of logistic regression techniques on a national level probation sample supported rational choice predictions about successive tendencies in offending participation that fulfill likely offender needs.     

The diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders in the courts

The DSM is designed with the intention that it will be used in clinical and research contexts, not as a guide for the courts. Increasingly, from DSM to DSM-III-R, the introductory cautionary statement in the manual has warned against its use in the judicial context. The drafters of the DSM faced a choice and might have chosen to address in some greater detail those disordered behaviors that do have legal relevance in that they arise with some degree of regularity in the courts. The following essay examines this choice and its consequences.     

Rational choice beyond the classroom: Decision making in offenders versus college students

Purpose

Tests of rational choice theory commonly utilize samples of university students. The current study examines whether these samples provide meaningful insight into real offenders’ decisions.

Methods

A total of 760 undergraduates from a southwestern university and 1,013 offenders incarcerated in the same state were surveyed. Both groups were given a hypothetical drunk driving scenario and completed rational choice questions.

Results

Results indicate that although the samples were very different in their background characteristics (e.g., age, sex, race, prior criminal history), they identified similar costs and benefits of drunk driving, gave similar ratings of the certainty/severity of these consequences, and utilized these consequences to inform their drunk driving intentions in a similar fashion.

Conclusion

Despite social science being largely criticized as the “study of sophomores,” in this instance it appears college student samples can provide meaningful insight into the decision calculus of known offenders. Implications and limitations of the study are presented.     

Incidental findings in genetics research using archived DNA

Despite calls by some commentators for disclosing incidental findings in genetics research, several factors weigh in favor of caution. The technology of genetics has the power to uncover a vast array of information. The most potent argument for restraint in disclosure is that much research is pursued without consent so that the individual participant may not know that research is being conducted at all. Often the work is done by investigators and at institutions with which the person has no prior contact. Past practice is also relevant; genetics researchers historically have chosen not to disclose incidental findings, of which misattributed paternity and pleiotropic alleles such as ApoE have been the most common. Many people choose not to have genetic tests when given a choice. It may be desirable to discuss the topic of incidental findings when consent for research is obtained, but given the risk of unwanted surprise when there has been no prior discussion, the potential utility of incidental findings should be very high before they are even offered to individuals.     

Evaluating the Comprehensibility of Jury Instructions: A Method and an Example

Methodological problems in jury simulation research involve issues of sampling, choice of stimulus materials, appropriate unit of analysis, appropriate dependent variable, corroborative data, and problems of role playing. Despite these issues, comprehension of jury instructions may be suitable for examination by jury simulation techniques--if certain of these methodological concerns can be satisfied. In a series of 5 experiments using typical Canadian legal instructions on criminal conspiracy and the coconspirator exception to the hearsay rule, this study attempted to validate a simple and inexpensive technique for testing the incomprehensibility of a given set of jury instructions by requiring participants to apply those legal instructions to a set of facts. The results demonstrate the utility of an application test, and suggest that for assessing the comprehensibility of jury instructions, it may be acceptable to use undergraduate students as participants, to use individual participants without group deliberation, and to employ written stimulus materials.     

Integrating the desire–for–control and rational choice in a corporate crime context

The “rational choice” framework, with its focus on risks and rewards, is often used to explain corporate criminality. In this paper, we build on this framework by integrating the notion of “desire‐for‐control.” Although common to many psychologists, the desire‐for‐control, or the general wish to be in control over everyday life events, has not been examined for its relevance in understanding criminal activity generally, or within corporate offending in particular. After demonstrating the importance of desire‐for‐control in the corporate context, we use data from a sample of managers and MBA students to examine the extent to which desire‐for‐control relates to rational‐choice considerations and corporate criminal decision‐making. Results suggest that desire‐for‐control (1) influences the interpretation of rational‐choice considerations and (2) is positively related to corporate criminality even after controlling for a number of important situational‐ and individual‐level factors. Implications for future theoretical and empirical research are addressed.     

HEURISTICS AND BIASES,RATIONAL CHOICE,AND SANCTION PERCEPTIONS*

The relevance of several cognitive heuristics and related biases for rational choice perspectives on crime, and for perceptions of sanction risk, were investigated. We present findings from a series of randomized experiments, embedded in two nationwide surveys of American adults (18 and older) in 2015 (N = 1,004 and 623). The results reveal that offender estimates of detection risk are less probabilistically precise and more situationally variable than under prevailing criminological perspectives, most notably, rational choice and Bayesian learning theories. This, in turn, allows various decision‐making heuristics—such as anchoring and availability—to influence and potentially bias the perceptual updating process.     

中国法律技能教育的制度分析

从法律技能的需求的视角,本文在制度层面分析技能教育为何在中国法学教育中发展不足和缓慢;认为这是法学院学生和教育者面时现有学科体制和由诸多社会因素构成的社会需求时的理性选择的结果;法律技能教育发展的关键不在于重视或加大投入,而在于中国社会的进一步发展和转型。本文追求对法学教育的经验研究和理论研究的有机整合。     

Specifying the direct and indirect effects of low self-control and situational factors in offenders' decision making: Toward a more complete model of rational offending

This paper builds on work by Nagin and Paternoster in which they contend that two recent developments in criminological theory, self-control and rational choice, have been explored separately rather than in conjunction with one another. In their analysis, Nagin and Paternoster found direct effects for variables from each of these theories and called for more research into simultaneous examination of the two. We build on their work by delineating a more highly specified model of rational offending, in which we observe that the research thus far has not examined the indirect effects of low self-control. We believe that this area is grossly underdeveloped and that such an examination is necessary for a more complete understanding of criminal offending. We advance three hypotheses concerning the integration of low self-control into a rational choice framework: (1) that low self-control will have both direct and indirect effects via situational characteristics on intentions to shoplift and drive drunk; (2) that situational characteristics will have direct effects on intentions to deviate, as well as effects on other situational factors; and (3) that a model uniting the effects of low self-control and situational characteristics will provide a good fit to the data. We find support for all these hypotheses and suggest that future theoretical developments will be improved by the integration of low self-control with situational characteristics in a more general model of offending.     

PERSONAL CAPITAL AND SOCIAL CONTROL: THE DETERRENCE IMPLICATIONS OF A THEORY OF INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN CRIMINAL OFFENDING*

A large and growing literature links stable individual differences established early in life to deviant behavior through the life course. This literature challenges basic premises of modern sociological and economic theories of deviance that emphasize explanatory factors that are more proximate in time and external to the individual. In this paper we present and test a theory designed to link rational choice and social control theories with two leading examples of theories that emphasize stable individual differences (Wilson and Herrnstein, 1985; Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990). Based on appeals to the economic theory of investment, we argue that individuals who are more present oriented and self-centered invest less in social bonds and therefore are less deterred from committing crime by the possibility of damage to such bonds. Thus, our theory, which builds from key constructs of the Gottfredson-Hir-schi and Wilson-Herrnstein theories, departs from those theories with the contention that social control does matter.     

The “STICKINESS” of stigma: Guilt by association after a friend's arrest

Prior research has examined the consequences of one's police contact, but the consequences of vicarious police contact are not as well known. This study expands on labeling theory and the concept of “stickiness” by assessing whether a friend's arrest increases the likelihood of one's police contact. Using a sample of rural youth (N = 13,170), I find that a friend's arrest is associated with an increase in the likelihood of one's first arrest the next year after accounting for other predictors of police contact. Based on my theoretical framework, I interpret this finding as “guilt by association.” In addition, ending relationships with friends who have been arrested does not significantly impact this relationship. This study concludes that police contact may be harmful for a youth's social network and builds on the concept of stickiness by suggesting that stigma not only sticks from one individual to another but may also stay despite efforts to end one's association with the arrested individual. The study expands on preexisting research on the consequences of adolescent police contact by introducing a friend's police contact as a way in which an individual may be more likely to become involved in the justice system.     

The Promised Land: A Study of Trafficking in Women from Central and Eastern Europe to the Netherlands

This study on trafficking in women from Central and Eastern Europe explores the contextual factors, the characteristics, and the motivation of victims as well as the methods of traffickers. A combination of rational choice theory, strain theory and social control theory forms the theoretical framework of our research. Based on information from experts in the field, interviews with victims, questionnaires, a study of dossiers and a search of the literature, we developed a typology of victims, which may be helpful for prevention and law enforcement.     

Culture, Autonomy and Djulibinyamurr: Individual and Community in the Construction of Rights to Traditional Designs

The remoteness enquiry in negligence, which serves to exclude the liability of defendants for harmful consequences that their careless conduct caused, but for which it seems unfair to penalise them, has long been beset by uncertainty. Indeed, a common view is that this area of the law can be explained only by reference to diffuse considerations of 'legal policy'. This paper, however, argues that the remoteness enquiry represents a principled response to a problem that can arise, at a deep level, in ascribing a harmful outcome to the negligent exercise of individual agency. The relevant problem concerns the possible mismatch between the hypothetical 'risk-claim' in virtue of which conduct was faulty and the causal set that subsequently materialised for harm. The 'revised risk theory' that emerges from this analysis accounts for the majority of remoteness determinations. However, a few exceptions are also considered where 'policy', in a restricted sense, operates to extend or curtail a negligent agent's legal responsibility.     

The Likelihood of Arrest: A Routine Activity Theory Approach

Routine activities theory (RAT) is traditionally drawn upon to highlight the role of offender motivation, target suitability, and effective guardianship in explaining victimization patterns. While an extensive literature base supports RAT, prior studies have neglected to examine the impact of offender motivation, target suitability, and guardianship on diverse outcomes of violent crimes. The current study extends prior research grounded in RAT by exploring the role of indicators of the central elements highlighted by the theory in understanding the likelihood that an offender will be arrested. As such, this study adds to the growing body of literature on RAT by exploring its relevance to a more diverse set of outcomes. To do this, we draw on the wealth of data on offender, victim, and incident characteristics available in the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS). Results from the analysis offer a moderate to strong level of support for extending RAT to understanding variation in the likelihood that an offender will be arrested. The insights gained from a RAT framework were further discussed in relation to our findings.