TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

It Is Not Paranoia if People Really Are Out to Get You

Abstract

The incidence of hate crime victimization in the states has received scant attention by researchers. Nor is it always clear who feels most vulnerable to hate crime victimization and why. In this research we included hate crime victimization questions in two years (2000, 2001) of a statewide survey. Idaho is a state with a predominately White population. It has been bedeviled with an Aryan Nation's compound and its attendant racist propaganda. We found that many citizens had been the victim of hate crimes in the last year and over the course of their lifetime. Minority group members were disproportionately represented as victims of hate crime and were almost three times as likely to feel vulnerable to it, as White respondents.     

Crime statistics: A mathematical perspective

This paper compares the crime statistics generated by the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) to those generated by the National Crime Survey (NCS), collected by the Census Bureau for the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration. The crime reporting process is described for both the UCR and NCS to determine the nature of their respective biases. Events within the processes are analyzed to develop a new estimate of crime incidence based on both the UCR and NCS. Numerical examples are then developed to point out the deficiencies in the NCS, and to make suggestions for the improvement of its accuracy.     

MANAGING RAPE: EXPLORATORY RESEARCH ON THE BEHAVIOR OF RAPE STATISTICS*

This article explores interpretations of the UCR-NCS disparity in rape rates within the context of recent debates and research about the UCR-NCS relationship. Analysis of a variety of survey, organizational, and employee data together with UCR and NCS crime data yields a pattern of findings that makes sense if two assumptions are made: Downward trends in NCS data are an approximation of trends in the real rate of rape, and upward trends in UCR data are primarily a product of changes in the management of rape cases. The common attribution of disparities between UCR and NCS rape data to changes in public or victim reporting receives little support when compared with explanations stressing organizational change. Upward movement in official attention to rape could, in fact, account for downward movement in NCS rape rates. The implications of recent NCS efforts to improve the official measurement of rape for the future behavior of rape statistics are also considered.     

“Striking out” as crime reduction policy: The impact of “three strikes” laws on crime rates in U.S. cities

During the 1990s, in response to public dissatisfaction over what were perceived as ineffective crime reduction policies, 25 states and Congress passed three strikes laws, designed to deter criminal offenders by mandating significant sentence enhancements for those with prior convictions. Few large-scale evaluations of the impact of these laws on crime rates, however, have been conducted. Our study used a multiple time series design and UCR data from 188 cities with populations of 100,000 or more for the two decades from 1980 to 2000. We found, first, that three strikes laws are positively associated with homicide rates in cities in three strikes states and, second, that cities in three strikes states witnessed no significant reduction in crime rates.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Relative Group Size and Hate Crime Rates: Linking Methods with Concepts

Abstract

In recent studies, Hipp et al. caution that the selection of the appropriate denominator in computing the rate of intra- and inter-group interactions is consequential for key findings. The present study builds on this work and examines whether adjusting for the structural opportunities for any type of interaction affects the observed relationship between hate crime rates and minority group size. We go beyond prior research by computing distinctive measures of anti-Black hate crime rates across US counties circa 2000. Our findings offer support for the power-differential hypothesis, revealing a negative effect of minority population size on crime motivated by bias. These results also underline the importance of the procedure developed by Hipp et al., showing that that the selection of the “baseline” for the computation of hate crime rates is critical for understanding the relationship between minority group size and crime motivated by bias.     

Problem-oriented policing in public housing: The Jersey City evaluation

This paper examines the impact of a problem-oriented policing project on serious crime problems in six public housing sites in Jersey City, New Jersey. Representatives from the police department and the local housing authority, social service providers, and public housing tenants formed six problem-solving teams. Using systematic documentation of the teams' activities and calls for police service, we examine changes in serious crime both across and within the six sites over a 2 1/2-year period. We find that problem-oriented policing, as compared with traditional policing strategies used before the problem-oriented policing project, led to fewer serious crime calls for service over time and that two public housing sites in particular succeeded in reducing violent, property, and vehicle-related crimes.     

State-Level Determinants of Hate Crime Reporting: Examining the Impact of Structural and Social Movement Influences

In this article, we investigate factors affecting hate crime policies by examining anti-LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender) hate crime reports as a type of policy implementation. Analyzing state-level data drawn primarily from the US Census between 1995 and 2008, we examine how structural and social movement mobilization factors explain hate crime reporting. We find that anti-LGBT hate crimes are more likely to be reported in more urbanized states and in states with both split political elites and a greater number of LGBT social movement organizations. We discuss the implications of our findings for separating the drivers of policy passage from policy implementation and for complementary criminological and social movement explanations for hate crime reporting.     

Deadly Words: State Power and the Entanglement of Speech and Violence in Hate Crime

Any analysis of hate crime that attempts to separate speech from action, language from violence, faces epistemological difficulties that limit the range of conversations about laws responding to identity-based injury in the United States. Active debates have raged over the implications of bias crime sentence enhancement laws for the protection of ‘freespeech’, thus addressing the inextricability of language and meaning from hate crime. Those in favor of legal responses to identity-based injury tend toward essentialist claims which assume the stability of identity and of meanings inherent in words or actions. Those opposed assert the impossibility of codifying the meaning of words or actions in the law, and/or they worry about the reification of (victimized) identities accompanying bias crime statutes. This article argues that the focus on language and speech in these debates simultaneously enables an evasion of discussion about the law's response to bias-related violence, and misleadingly assumes too much stability in the functions of law and the nature of state power. Interviews conducted by the author with individuals involved in a 1992 racist hate crime are used to show the diverse elements of state power suffusing the incident and its aftermath. An analysis of the crime's investigation and prosecution under a Maryland hate crime statute suggests that law enforcement officers are primarily using hate crime laws as public relations tools in a fight against community perceptions that they are themselves bigots. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessing the public's demand for hate crime penalties

In this article, we analyze responses from a nationally representative sample of American adults to determine public attitudes toward punishment for hate crimes. While attitudinal polls find strong support for hate crime laws, criminological research provides reasons to believe that this support may be weaker than assumed. Our findings suggest that, while there is minimal public support for harsher penalties for offenders who commit hate crimes, attitudes toward punishment, treatment, and minority rights are predictive of preferences for differential treatment of hate crime offenders. We discuss possible implications of these results in our conclusion.     

ASSESSING THE VALIDITY OF OFFICIAL DATA ON ARSON*

Prior research has not examined the validity of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) “reported crime” figures on the offense of arson. The reporting of arson is distinguished from that of other index offenses by the requirement that an investigation occur that establishes that a fire has been purposefully set or attempted; the counting of all arsons regardless of their occurrence with other offenses; the detection and reporting of the offense by noncitizens; and the infrequent existence of exclusive police jurisdiction. Because of these unique characteristics, past approaches to assessing the validity of data on index crimes, such as a comparison with victim reports of crime, are not possible or appropriate. In this study UCR data on arson are compared with data obtained through a national survey (n=683) of fire departments. The comparisons indicate that UCR data are significantly lower than the rate of arson reported by local fire departments both overall and across all regions of the country.     

The prosecution of hate crimes: the limitations of the hate crime typology

Since the development of bias crime legislation over the past few decades, scholars have debated the merits of the legislation and questioned its enforcement.(1) In light of such concerns, this study presents characteristics of all cases prosecuted as bias crimes in a New Jersey county between 2001 and 2004 and applies the hate crime typology originally developed in 1993. Results show that, in this jurisdiction, the typology is an inadequate tool for classifying cases prosecuted as hate crimes. Approximately one third of the cases are unclassifiable according to the typology. Findings indicate that the typology is useful for understanding cases in which bias is the sole motivation but inadequate for application to the many cases in which bias is a peripheral motivation.     

The Complexity of Hate Crime and Bias Activity: Variation across Contexts and Types of Bias

Are racially-motivated hate crimes, non-criminal bias incidents, and general forms of crime associated with the same structural factors? If so, then social disorganization, a powerful structural correlate of general crime, should predict rates of hate incidents. However, tests of social disorganization’s effects on racially-motivated hate crime yield inconsistent results. This study uses data from the Pennsylvania Human Relations Commission (PHRC) to explore such inconsistencies. Specifically, we assess the effects of social disorganization across contexts and types of bias motivation using bias incidents over 12 years. The results suggest that (a) social disorganization, particularly residential instability, is robustly correlated with rates of both hate crime and other prejudicial conduct, and that (b) the interactive effects of social disorganization help explain variations in incident rates by motivation type. Specifically, anti-black incidents are most frequent in unstable, homogeneous (i.e. white) and advantaged communities, while anti-white incidents are most frequent in unstable, disadvantaged communities.     

Relationship between reported crime rates and victimization survey results: An empirical and analytical study

Changes over time in crime as measured by reported crime counts and victimization survey counts are compared. A simple analysis is done using data from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration's (LEAA) National Crime Survey for the years 1973, 1974, and 1975. These data are used to provide some understanding of why Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) results for these years show a much greater increase in crime than the LEAA/Census Bureau National Crime Surveys. A mathematical model is constructed to determine whether changes in the proportion of victimization reported to the authorities produces systematic bias in reported crime estimates of changes in actual victimizations. It is found that reported crime counts: (1) either exaggerate the amount of changes in victimizations or, (2) tend to misrepresent the direction of change in victimizations. It is highly likely that the amount of measurement error in changes in reported crime is significantly large in comparison with, if not larger than, the normal amounts of change in reported crime.     

Stereotypical Hate Crimes and Criminal Justice Processing: A Multi-Dataset Comparison of Bias Crime Arrest Patterns by Offender and Victim Race

Many hate crimes are not reported and even fewer hate crimes result in an arrest. This study investigates patterns of victim reporting and arrest for hate crimes in two parts. First, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, we find that, controlling for offense severity, hate crimes are less likely than non-bias crimes to be reported to the police and that the police are less likely to take further action for hate crimes, compared to non-hate crimes. Second, we use data from the Pennsylvania Human Relations Commission and the National Incident-Based Reporting System to compare differences between types of hate crimes in the likelihood of crime clearance. We find that those hate crimes most likely to result in arrest are those that fit the profile of a “stereotypical” hate crime: violent incidents, incidents committed by hate groups, and incidents involving white offenders and black victims.     

The presentation of drugs in the news media: The news sources involved in the construction of social problems

We use content and ethnographic methods to analyze news media coverage of crime, drug offenses, and celebrated cases. We document the sources cited in crime stories to determine which officials are used to define what is important about crime as it is presented to the public. This analysis demonstrates that the organizational constraints of news production determine the presentation of the great majority of crime stories. The media rely on criminal justice sources to increase efficiency of news production. The involvement of sources in the standard production of news, however, gives them an opportunity to take advantage of important social problems and celebrated cases. We examine the sources cited in crime stories, drug stories, and celebrated cases to document how the news process evolves according to the importance of the story. Implications for understanding crime and the role of the media as an institution of social control are discussed.     

A two southern state comparison of the relationship between UCR crime rates and the anticipation of victimization

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between UCR crime rates and a surveyed population’s anticipation of victimization within the next year. Separate surveys were conducted within the states of Tennessee and Texas. In both surveys, self-reported questionnaires were mailed to a random sample of 2,000 individuals drawn from the population of persons holding valid driver’s licenses within that state. A comparison was made between six Part I (rape, robbery, assualt, burglary, theft, and vehicle theft) UCR crime rates of the two states and the expectation of imminent victimization, as shown by the statewide surveys. Several past studies have suggested that there is little relationship between the official incidence of crime and the perceived likelihood of victimization. However, this study presents evidence in support of a positive relationship between UCR crime rates and the anticipation of victimization. In addition, it was found that the greater the anticipation of victimization level the more likely the respondents were to utilize defensive security devices (target hardening).     

When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.