东北亚油气合作的现实选择:来自中国在中亚的成功经验

东北亚和中亚地区凭借丰富的油气资源,在世界能源版图中的地位日渐上升。近年来,中亚地区油气合作发展迅速,但是在资源总量上更具优势的东北亚油气合作之路却充满曲折。在地区性统一能源市场形成之前,政府间多边协调机制仍然是东北亚油气合作的现实选择。中国在互利双赢的理念指导下,以良好的政治互信为基础,以油气运输管线为纽带,通过以双边合作为主、双边合作带动多边合作的方式,循序渐进地稳步推进了与中亚国家的油气合作。因此,中国在推动地区油气合作方面积累了一定的成功经验,提高了驾驭复杂局面的能力,理应在推进东北亚油气合作方面发挥更积极的作用。     

俄罗斯在东北亚地区的对外能源合作

东北亚在俄罗斯当前能源政策和未来能源战略中的地位非常重要。今后,俄罗斯将进一步加大对中国、韩国和日本的油气出口,推动东北亚地区内国家层次和企业层次的多边合作,最终极大地促进俄罗斯与中、日、韩三国形成长期、良好的能源合作关系。     

Preparing for the best: involving North Korea in the new pacific community

The United States, Japan, and South Korea should be considering ways and means to involve North Korea in regional cooperation. In the economic sector, the United States and South Korea might support the Northeast Asia Economic Forum and the Tumen River Area Development Project. The United States might also encourage Japan or South Korea to lead discussions on the possibilities of an Association of Northeast Asian Provinces, a Northeast Asian Development Bank, a regional labor market, and forums on regional transportation and communication, shipping and navigation, and air traffic management. All should support North Korea’s joining the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. The need to monitor or retrieve the dumped Russian nuclear submarine reactors in North Korean waters is a serendipitous opportunity for broaching multilateral environmental cooperation.     

Energy in Northeast Asia: Resources for Conflict or Cooperation? An Introduction

Although Northeast Asia typically is seen as an arena for conflict over energy supplies, complementary economic relationships would seem to make the region ripe for energy cooperation: Russia possesses major oil and gas resources, while China, Japan, South and North Korea all depend on imported energy. The four papers in this issue raise a number of important and, at times, neglected issues about the prospects for energy cooperation in Northeast Asia. While focusing on specific projects for energy supply and conservation, the authors implicitly raise broader theoretical questions about the prospects for and consequences of regional energy cooperation.

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

美国战略调整背景下朝鲜半岛地缘战略困境的演变与突破

作为美国全球战略的重要一环,美国亚太再平衡战略引发东北亚地缘战略形势的陡然紧张,也使朝鲜半岛局势在一波三折中日趋扑朔迷离。围绕朝鲜第三次核试验出现的中美日俄韩朝的双边和多边博弈不断升温,朝鲜半岛无核化的传统安全与非传统安全风险相互交织。要突破朝鲜半岛地缘紧张加剧和战略困境加深的窘况,必须坚持多边框架解决原则、努力落实安全承诺和不断深化经贸合作。     

朴槿惠政府东北亚和平合作构想的具体化和改进方向

2013年2月上台的朴槿惠政府提出了一项新的外交政策,即"东北亚和平合作构想",并在国内外进行广泛宣传和研究。"东北亚和平合作构想"为了解决包括区域外国家美国在内的,东北亚区域内各国间的"亚洲悖论",以非传统安全领域的"软安全"问题为中心,开展多边对话机制,并致力于最终形成一个东北亚安全共同体。但该构想尚处于理论起步阶段,对合作(安全)议题、区域范围(参与对象国)、行为主体、国际机制(制度化)、推进战略等问题没有具体界定,距离政策化也还有一段距离。其间朴槿惠总统(政府)向美国和中国介绍了"东北亚和平合作构想",但仅得到美国的消极理解和中国原则上的支持,并没有得到对该构想的实质和具体内容的理解和支持。"东北亚和平合作构想"应要进一步具体化、理论化,以此来得到东北亚各国一致认同且可实践的国际合作体制。     

The More Assertive and Pragmatic New Energy Policy in Putin’s Russia: Security Implications for Northeast Asia

The article examines Russia’s New Energy Policy (NEP) and its impact on Northeast Asian security and the development of the Russian Far East. In contrast to analyses highlighting competition between China and Japan for Russian resources, to the contrary it is argued here that greater cooperation among consumer states in Northeast Asia would be beneficial for Russia. Although the NEP has resulted in changes in the composition of foreign investors in Russian energy projects, the author suggests that Moscow is interested in multinational cooperation in the energy sector because it would help diversify the regional energy market and contribute to the development of the Russian Far East and eastern Siberia.

Prospects for cooperative security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region

The concept of multilateral dialogue on Asia-Pacific security is attracting increasing support. This results from the improvement of relations among most of the major powers, the growing awareness of the problems that can best be addressed through cooperation, and the development of more realistic proposals for multilateral dialogue. The best approach to cooperative security is to utilize a combination of channels, including the ASEAN Regional Forum for discussion of region-wide and Southeast Asian issues, a parallel forum for dialogue on Northeast Asia, consideration of some security problems in APEC, and a recognized unofficial dialogue on regional strategic questions. In Spring 1994, he was a visiting professor of East Asian studies at The George Washington University and as of January 1995 he will be the new dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at GWU. He is the author ofA Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972 (Brookings, 1992).     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.     

China's Long-Term Energy Outlook and the Implications for Global Governance

This study gives a long-term energy outlook for China by an econometric method. China's GDP growth will be 6.4 percent annually from 2005 to 2030, and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in a number of difficult issues such as energy security, environment protection and CO₂ emissions reductions. China should solve these problems through its own efforts. At the same time, international cooperation such as establishing an Energy Community in the Northeast Asia region is also an important strategic option.     

ASEAN and Northeast Asian energy security: Cooperation or competition?

For several decades, Northeast Asia has invested heavily in ASEAN’s fossil fuel industries. This investment has been fundamental in ASEAN’s industrial and regional development and has also been a main source of foreign exchange. In recent years, however, while energy demand in Japan and Korea has been slowing down, it has begun to increase rapidly in ASEAN at a time when some of its own oil and gas fields are beginning to decline. The sharp rise in ASEAN's demand for energy is partly the result of massive FDI from Northeast Asia in manufacturing enterprises. This investment is enabling ASEAN to become less dependent on the export of fossil fuels for foreign exchange. Indonesia has already announced it is reducing its energy exports to Japan because it wants to use the fuel domestically. Without doubt, the other ASEAN energy exporting countries will also soon be reconsidering their energy export contracts with Northeast Asia.     

Russia in the Asia–Pacific: The beginning of a new era?

This article discusses significant changes in Russia and the surrounding world during the last several years. The author argues that these changes created major preconditions for the beginning of a new era in relations between Russia and Northeast Asian countries, which will boost a breakthrough in the field of energy cooperation and might add a “second wing” to the idea of regionalism in Northeast Asia.     

韩中关系与东北亚国际合作体制

东北亚国际合作机制的提出始于20世纪80年代,此后这一议题进入具体讨论的阶段。由于地缘冲突、安全困境等多种原因,目前东北亚地区还难以推行以国际机制或国家理性选择为基础的国际合作机制。从政治外交、经济、人文等合作机制的发展状况来看,目前韩中关系正朝着更高的合作方向发展,这可以说是东北亚国际合作机制建设的重要基础和参照。不过,这其中的一些困扰因素仍然不可小觑。本文主要从经济、政治外交、社会文化三个方面讨论韩中关系的发展,由此分析韩中关系对构建东北亚国际合作机制的重要意义,探讨韩中两国尚未解决或难以妥协的矛盾分歧对东北亚国际合作机制的构建及其发展的重要影响。     

中亚——日本双边、多边关系及其对中国的启示

中亚各国与日本建立外交关系以来,随着官方交往水平的提高,其伙伴关系稳步发展。1997年,"新丝路外交"这一概念总结了日本的中亚政策。21世纪伊始,新的地区伙伴开始受到中亚的欢迎。20多年间,日本与中亚的合作突出了几个特别的领域,即教育、区域经济发展、政治改革以及能源资源,其多边外交关系提升到了建立"中亚+日本"的对话机制。构建"丝绸之路经济带"的构想,反映了中国领导人对中亚政策的重要体现,反映了中国的中亚战略。日本的中亚政策,会在一定程度上给中国与中亚国家合作关系的发展造成一些影响,但是不能看作遏制中国与中亚国家合作关系的政策,应从中获得一定的启示。     

多边主义与东亚高政治合作

中国在国际关系中积极倡导多边主义,充分体现了中国外交与时俱进的精神和当代中国外交文化的先进性内涵.推动东亚政治合作是面向21世纪中国奉行多边主义外交战略的重要步骤,它事关东亚能否崛起为世界重要一极.中国在东亚的多边主义战略目标是构建一个和谐的东亚政治经济和安全环境.由于传统和历史的原因,东亚国家一直比较重视在"低政治"领域展开合作,但对"高政治"领域的合作却畏首畏尾,显得比较缓慢和迟钝.其实,东亚国家在战后初期就存在着大国主导"高政治"领域合作的空间.东亚虽然是世界主要的文明发祥地、战后各主要国家也先后实现了经济的起飞,但是政治上的作用却未能很好发挥出来.相反,东亚却成为霸权主义和强权政治轻易得手和随意操纵的地方,特别是由于政治合作意愿淡薄,直接导致了东亚大国政治上的分散化和政治问题的频繁发生,进而也威胁到经济社会发展领域,中日关系就是一个突出的例子.解决朝核问题的多边主义模式应该机制化,这是东亚"高政治"合作的重要起点,而中国应该成为该机制化过程中的主导力量.     

浅析中国与东盟的能源合作

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的基本要素之一。随着中国经济的快速增长,中国对外能源需求量逐年增长,能源安全成了人们普遍关注的一个全球性的热点问题。因此,中国应通过积极参与双边与多边的能源合作,采取多元化的油气资源供给途径,来保障中国的油气资源的安全供给。随着东盟与中国政治经济关系的升温,东盟各国在中国的能源安全领域扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文在对中国能源现状进行分析的基础上,对中国与东盟开展能源合作这一议题进行剖析,浅析其合作的必要性、可行性及其前景。     

中日韩三国的战略信赖度分析

本文以战略互信理论为主要依据,探讨了中日韩三国的战略定位,并在尝试建立中日韩三国战略互信度模型的基础上,对影响中日韩三国战略互信关系的主要因素进行了较为系统的分析,并指出构筑和进一步建立中日韩三国稳定的战略互信关系,是东北亚多边安全机制构建的核心和基础。     

中美关系的变化和朝鲜半岛的和平

中美关系将会全面寻求合作与竞争,但是基于中国的崛起和＂美国霸权＂的衰落,＂合作中冲突＂的局面可能会逐渐形成。通过加强联合与强调多边合作,中美两国在东北亚地区采取的下注战略都向着防止任何一方统治该区域的情况发生转型。除了中美关系的冲突或合作趋势之外,朝鲜半岛也存在卷入＂他者化＂或＂国际化＂的可能性。本文建议无论是韩美联盟还是中韩合作都应遵循独立适用原则,且我们应当探索战略性的普遍原则。     

东北亚“核威慑效应弱化”及其应对思考

东北亚地区呈现的"核威慑效应弱化",对地区安全构成消极影响。东北亚以及美国的核威慑投入在持续,美对韩日核保护,韩日谈论核武器,朝鲜发展核武器,同时萨德部署与《中导条约》失效降低了中俄的核威慑能力,核传统的遏止功能、保护能力与可信性降低,核扩散趋势增强,核威慑悖论现象显现。"核安全保护不完全"、核拥有国数量增加,是探讨"核威慑效应弱化"成因的有益路径。建立新时代的核理论,揭示并审慎研究核武器化与民用化并存风险,建立核民用合作机制并推进建立涵盖核的武器与民用的合作机制,以核问题的处理为契机在国家层面上构建东北亚命运共同体,以及在地方与个人层面推进核文化教育与核防护演练合作,都是应对"核威慑效应弱化"的有益思考。