LINKING ACTUAL AND PERCEIVED CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT:

An untested proposition in deterrence theory is that people's perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community are influenced by their exposure to information about crimes committed in the community which have and have not resulted in arrest. We examine the effects of two sources of information on people k perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community: (1) newspaper crime stories and (2) personal experiences with crimes and the personal experiences of one's acquaintances. Only the latter appear to influence people's estimates of the certainty of arrest.     

RISK PERCEPTIONS AMONG SERIOUS OFFENDERS: THE ROLE OF CRIME AND PUNISHMENT*

Previous research on the perceived certainty of punishment indicates that individuals with experience in committing crimes perceive arrest as less certain than do those without such experience. Studies assessing the influence of experiencing formal sanctions on perceptions of risk have produced mixed results. Most studies however, have not considered the experience of sanctions in conjunction with the frequency of criminal behavior. With a sample of 1,046 incarcerated felons, we examined relationships among perceived risk of arrest, arrest history, and frequency of committing crimes. Our findings suggest that it is important to measure the ratio of arrests to crimes and that perceptions of risk are formed in a manner consistent with a rational choice perspective, even in a sample of serious offenders.     

Consequences of legal risk communication for sanction perception updating and white-collar criminality

Objectives

Scholars have long emphasized that communicating, or “advertising”, information about legal sanction risk is necessary for the success of deterrence-based crime policies. However, scant research has evaluated whether direct communications about legal risk can cause sanction perception updating, the updating of ambiguity in sanction perceptions, or changes in persons’ willingness to offend. No prior studies have evaluated sanction perception updating for white-collar crimes.

Methods

To address this research void, the current study analyzes data from an experiment embedded in a recent national survey (N?=?878). Multivariate regression models estimate the effect of providing participants with information about the “objective” arrest risk for white-collar offenses on their sanction perceptions.

Results

The findings provide the first evidence that such information, when it is inconsistent with individuals’ prior beliefs, causes them to update: (1) their perceptions of the certainty of arrest; (2) their ambiguity about arrest risk; and, indirectly, (3) their willingness to commit white-collar crimes.

Conclusions

The results imply that individuals are willing to incorporate relevant information into their subjective beliefs about sanction risks. Importantly, however, they also make meaningful distinctions about the value of new information for understanding criminal risks.

     

CRIMES,CRIME RATES,ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*

The relationship between crimes and arrests is one of the central issues in deterrence theory. There are several conceptual difficulties in attempting to assess whether arrests deter crimes or the number of crimes determine the number of arrests. These problems are compounded when rates are used to measure both variables. The issue is whether criminals respond to arrests or the police respond to changes in crime. The present analysis compares regression results when the variables are measured both as rates and raw numbers for three offenses: homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results indicate that arrests follow crimes. This suggests the need to reexamine some studies that argue that criminals’perceptions of arrest rates are an indication of deterrence.     

The criminal justice response to wife assault

This paper reviews the criminal justice response to wife assault. By establishing a set of conditional probabilites for the reporting, detection, prosecution, and conviction for wife assault, the paper establishes that a “winnowing process” occurs that is not dissimilar to that reported for other crimes. The probability of wife assault being detected by the criminal justice system is about 6.5%. Given that it is detected, the probability of arrest is about 21.2% [comparable to a 20% arrest rate for a composite of 121 crimes reported by Hood and Sparks (1970)]. Subsequent conditional probabilities for conviction and punishment generate an aggregate probability that, given that an event of wife assault occurs, the perpetrator has a 0.38% chance of being punished by the courts. The policy implications of this review are that the greatest impact on wife assault recidivism reduction would be generated by police arrest rates regardless of court outcome. At present, however, it is not known whether this effect is produced by specific deterrence or by the didactic function of law. It is concluded that too little is known of the subjective states of wife assaulters to ascertain whether deterrence or some other mechanism accounts for the decreased recidivism reported after arrest.     

On the Limits of Social Control: Structural Deterrence and the Policing of “Suppressible” Crimes

The present study examined the relationships between patterns of police arrests and subsequent variations in robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault in New York City police precincts from 1989 to 1998. Grounded in the structural deterrence theoretical perspective, and using a two‐stage fixed‐effects statistical framework, the study found that while controlling for indicators of social disorganization, increases in arrest vigor (i.e., arrests per officer for violent crimes in each precinct and raw arrest counts) predicted decreases in robbery and burglary, but that the relationships were non‐linear: as arrest vigor increased, robbery and burglary crime decreased; when arrest thresholds were reached, however, both robbery and burglary crime rates became positively associated with arrest aggressiveness. Conversely, variations in aggressive arrest patterns had no significant effect on aggravated assault, supporting the suppressible crimes arguments that primarily economically motivated crimes, and those that tend to occur in public settings, are most likely deterred by aggressive police practices.     

TESTING A BAYESIAN LEARNING THEORY OF DETERRENCE AMONG SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS*

The effect of criminal experience on risk perceptions is of central importance to deterrence theory but has been vastly understudied. This article develops a realistic Bayesian learning model of how individuals will update their risk perceptions over time in response to the signals they receive during their offending experiences. This model implies a simple function that we estimate to determine the deterrent effect of an arrest. We find that an individual who commits one crime and is arrested will increase his or her perceived probability of being caught by 6.3 percent compared with if he or she had not been arrested. We also find evidence that the more informative the signal received by an individual is, the more he or she will respond to it, which is consistent with more experienced offenders responding less to an arrest than less experienced offenders do. Parsing our results out by type of crime indicates that an individual who is arrested for an aggressive crime will increase both his or her aggressive crime risk perception as well as his or her income‐generating crime risk perception, although the magnitude of the former may be slightly larger. This implies that risk perception updating, and thus potentially deterrence, may be partially, although not completely, crime specific.     

Do the experiential and deterrent effect operate differently across gender?

Deterrence research showed that successful criminal episodes tended to erode the effect of sanction risks. In particular, experience with offending—especially offending without punishment—was believed to cause individuals to lower their unrealistically high expectations of sanction risk. At the same time, other research showed that deterrence could work for some individuals such that high perceptions of sanction certainty tended to inhibit future episodes of criminal activity. One unanswered question was the extent to which these ‘experiential’ and ‘deterrent’ effects operated differently across gender. Self-reported survey information on over 2,000 adolescents was employed to examine whether the experiential and deterrent effects varied across gender. Results indicated more similarities than differences linking deterrent and experiential effects to self-reported delinquency. Future research directions are outlined.     

SOME NEW EVIDENCE ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF CRIME*

Previous studies of the seriousness of crime have attempted to elicit information from public surveys. This paper reports on an alternative method of ranking the severity of crime. Actual victim injury rates are combined with jury awards in personal injury accident cases to estimate pain, suffering, and fear. Crime-related death rates are combined with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death. These estimates are combined with out-of-pocket costs (such as medical costs and lost wages) to arrive at total dollar estimates of the cost of individual crimes to victims. These dollar estimates are then used to rank the seriousness of crimes. Although these two approaches yield surprisingly similar rankings, the monetary estimates indicate that violent crimes are relatively more costly to victims than survey results might imply.     

Stereotypical Hate Crimes and Criminal Justice Processing: A Multi-Dataset Comparison of Bias Crime Arrest Patterns by Offender and Victim Race

Many hate crimes are not reported and even fewer hate crimes result in an arrest. This study investigates patterns of victim reporting and arrest for hate crimes in two parts. First, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, we find that, controlling for offense severity, hate crimes are less likely than non-bias crimes to be reported to the police and that the police are less likely to take further action for hate crimes, compared to non-hate crimes. Second, we use data from the Pennsylvania Human Relations Commission and the National Incident-Based Reporting System to compare differences between types of hate crimes in the likelihood of crime clearance. We find that those hate crimes most likely to result in arrest are those that fit the profile of a “stereotypical” hate crime: violent incidents, incidents committed by hate groups, and incidents involving white offenders and black victims.     

PATTERNS OF DRUG USE,DRUG TRAFFICKING,AND OTHER DELINQUENCY AMONG INNER-CITY ADOLESCENT MALES IN WASHINGTON,D.C.*

This paper examines (1) the relationship between drug involvement among inner-city youths and the commission of other kinds of crime, (2) the role of drug use in crime commission, (3) the connection between crime and drug procurement, and (4) the factors that distinguish between individuals as a function of (a) levels of involvement in drug trafficking and (b) drug usage and criminal activity. Drug use and trafficking were both related to other criminal activities; the type of drug involvement was related to the type of crimes reported. The heaviest users were significantly more likely than nonusers to commit property crimes and drug traffickers were significantly more likely to commit crimes against persons than were respondents who did not sell drugs. Adolescents who used and sold drugs were the most likely to commit crimes against persons and property, and at the greatest rate. Still, for every type of crime reported in the past year, only a minority of offenders reported ever using drugs while committing the crime or said that they committed any type of crime in order to obtain drugs or money to obtain drugs. Most youths appear to commit crime for reasons completely independent of drugs.     

CRIME,ARRESTS, AND PRETRIAL JAIL INCARCERATION: AN EXAMINATION OF THE DETERRENCE THESIS*

Using longitudinal data calibrated in daily intervals and a vector ARMA (VARMA) study design, we investigate the causal relations among the number of crimes reported to the police, the frequency of arrest, and the number of defendants held in pretrial jail confinement. Results show a lagged negative effect of frequency of arrest on reported crime. As the number of wrests made by police increases, the number of index crimes reported to authorities decreases substantially the following day. Additionally the analysis reveals a significant positive contemporaneous relationship between criminal activity and arrest levels. No feedback effects among the three variables are noted. In sum, our findings add empirical support to the thesis that the instantaneous and lagged relationship between crime and clearances are of opposite sign. That is, criminal activity increases arrest levels instantaneously, or at least relatively so, while the negative effect of arrest levels on crime levels transpires more gradually.     

DETERRENCE AND DETERRABILITY*

The first forays into Western criminological theory came in the language of deterrence (Beccaria, 1963 [1764]). The paradigm itself is simple and straightforward, offering an explanation for crime that doubles as a solution (Pratt et al., 2006). Crime occurs when the expected rewards outweigh the anticipated risks, so increasing the risks, at least theoretically, will prevent most crimes in most circumstances. If deterrence describes the perceptual process by which would-be offenders calculate risks and rewards prior to offending, then deterrability refers to the offender's capacity and/or willingness to perform this calculation. The distinction between deterrence and deterrability is critical to understanding criminality from a utilitarian perspective. However, by attempting to answer “big picture” questions about the likelihood of offending relative to sanction threats, precious little scholarship has attended to the situated meaning of deterrability. This article draws attention to this lacuna in hopes of sensitizing criminology to an area of inquiry that, at present, remains only loosely developed.     

LEGAL CYNICISM,COLLECTIVE EFFICACY,AND THE ECOLOGY OF ARREST*

Ethnographic evidence reveals that many crimes in poor minority neighborhoods evade criminal justice sanctioning, thus leading to a negative association between the proportion of minority residents in a neighborhood and the arrest rate. To explain this finding, we extend recent theoretical explications of the concept of legal cynicism. Legal cynicism refers to a cultural orientation in which the law and the agents of its enforcement are viewed as illegitimate, unresponsive, and ill equipped to ensure public safety. Crime might flourish in neighborhoods characterized by legal cynicism because individuals who view the law as illegitimate are less likely to comply with it; yet because of legal cynicism, these crimes might go unreported and therefore unsanctioned. This study draws on data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods to test the importance of legal cynicism for understanding geographic variation in the probability of arrest. We find that, in neighborhoods characterized by high levels of legal cynicism, crimes are much less likely to lead to an arrest than in neighborhoods where citizens view the police more favorably. Findings also reveal that residents of highly cynical neighborhoods are less likely to engage in collective efficacy and that collective efficacy mediates the association between legal cynicism and the probability of arrest.     

The Economics of Cruel and Unusual Punishment

It has sometimes been argued that one way to reduce the costs of law enforcement would be to reduce the probability of detection and conviction (hence saving those costs), while at the same time increasing the size of the punishment. Following this strategy would keep the expected costs (to a risk neutral criminal) of committing a crime constant and hence keep the deterrence level constant; it would have the benefit, though, of reducing costs to the rest of society.There are some well-known objections to such a policy. One such objection deals with marginal deterrence: A convicted murderer serving a life sentence with no chance of parole in a jurisdiction which bans capital punishment has nothing to lose from killing a prison guard—there is no marginal deterrence to the commission of a more serious crime or any additional crime for that matter. In fact, so long as there remains any upper limit to the amount of punishment that can be inflicted upon a convicted criminal, the only ways to create some type of marginal deterrence are to reduce the punishments for less serious crimes, which will either reduce the deterrence of those less serious crimes, or alternatively to require the use of more of society's scarce resources to increase the probabilities of apprehension and conviction.It is possible to reduce this marginal deterrence problem, however, by practicing cruel and unusual punishment on perpetrators of serious crimes, i.e. by raising the limits of allowable punishment. Anecdotal evidence suggests this practice is followed unofficially with child molesters and killers of prison guards and hence provides some additional deterrence against these crimes.Despite the theoretical validity of this argument, our society has chosen to impose a constitutional ban on cruel and unusual punishment. Furthermore, over time we seem to have lowered the threshold of what is considered cruel and unusual. Following Dr. Pangloss, the concluding section of the paper examines why rational maximizers would choose to give up this additional potential deterrence. The explanations depend upon an assumed positive income elasticity of demand for humanitarianism or for insurance against the costs of punishing the innocent. While there are some reasons to accept the humanitarianism argument, the insurance argument seems more persuasive.     

TIME AGGREGATION AND TIME LAG IN MACRO-LEVEL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Recent arguments in research on individual-level deterrence suggest that the effect of perceived sanction risk on illegal behavior might occur over a shorter time period than the yearly lags typically incorporated in panel studies. This study raises the same issue for macro-level deterrence research by suggesting that panel studies using yearly data might have failed to capture the deterrent effect. The analysis uses ARIMA models with data aggregated monthly, quarterly, and semiannually to estimate the reciprocal effects between arrests and crimes for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in Oklahoma City from 1967 through 1989. No effect of crimes on arrests is found, but significant effects of arrests on crimes appear for three of the four offenses in the shorter temporal aggregations. The results suggest a need to reconsider conclusions based on panel studies that have used time aggregations and time lags that might be too long to uncover deterrent effects.     

Testing a rational choice model of “desistance:” Decomposing changing expectations and changing utilities

We argue that a rational choice framework can be used to explain declines in offending from adolescence to young adulthood in two ways. First, subjective expectations of offending can be age graded such that perceptions of rewards decrease and perceptions of risks and costs increase. Second, the marginal (dis)utility of crime may be age graded (e.g., preferences for risks, costs, and rewards). We examine changes in offending from adolescence to young adulthood among a subset of individuals from the Pathways to Desistance Study (N = 585) and employ a nonlinear decomposition model to partition differences in offending attributable to changing subjective expectations (X) and changing marginal utilities (β). The results indicate that both have direct and independent effects on changes in offending over time. The results of a detailed decomposition on the subjective expectations also indicate that differences exist across the type of incentives. That is, the effect of changing expectations is attributed mainly to changes in perceived rewards (both social and intrinsic). Changing expectations of social costs and risk of arrest from offending have weak effects on changes in criminal behavior, which suggests that they must be accompanied by increases in the weight placed on these expectations to promote appreciable declines in offending.     

A MULTILEVEL TEST OF RACIAL THREAT THEORY

We develop a conceptual model articulating the mechanisms by which racial threat is theorized to affect social control, focusing specifically on the influence of the relative size of the black population on the likelihood that the police will arrest a black citizen suspected of a violent criminal offense. A multilevel analysis of 145, 255 violent crimes reported to police in 182 cities during 2000 shows only qualified support for racial threat theory. Controlling for the amount of race-specific crime reported to police, our findings reveal that black citizens actually have a lower probability of arrest in cities with a relatively large black population. This finding tends to cast doubt on the validity of the racial threat hypothesis. No evidence buttresses the claim that economic competition between whites and blacks affects arrest probabilities. However, results show that in cities where racial segregation is more pronounced blacks have a reduced risk sof being arrested relative to whites. Crimes involving black offenders and white victims are also more apt to result in an arrest in cities that are racially segregated. These findings support the view that racial segregation is an informal mechanism to circumscribe the threat of potentially volatile subordinate populations.     

ANALYZING URBAN CRIME DATA: Deterrence and the Limitations of Arrests per Offense Ratios

Police reports of Index crimes, arrests, and population estimates for 1960 through 1977 for 49 U.S. cities are used to compare trends in arrest rates, crime rates, and the arrests per crime (A/C) ratio-a measure sometimes correlated with crime rates to assess the deterrent effect of arrest. Since the correlation of the A/C ratio with the crime rate can produce tautological results in a trend analysis. comparisons of trends for crime rates and arrest rates for specific cities are examined. The results do not support a deterrence hypothesis. but indicate that the A/C ratios for some of the nation's largest cities are unstable over time and sensitive to changes in reporting practices. The analysis illustrates the pitfalls encountered when data limitations are overlooked and underscores the need for more dependable measures of crime, apprehension, and punishment.     

A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF CRIME CONTROL STRATEGIES

Comparisons were made between 92 male prisoners over the age of 50 and 539 younger male prisoners at Utah State Prison, and between groups of first and muhiply incarcerated ot Utah and younger inmates. The older prisoners committed more crimes against persons, fewer property crimes, were older at first arrest, and were less socially deviant, impulsive, and hostile. The first incarcerated older inmates were found to have more often engaged in crimes of violence. were less involved in a criminal way of life, and were the best adjusted of all the groups. The multiply incarcerated older inmates were found to resemble the younger inmates in terms of a criminal way of life and were not different from their younger counterparts in their adjustment.