Seeing the Lexus for the Olive Trees? Public Opinion,Economic Interdependence,and Interstate Conflict

Many scholars argue that economic interdependence and more extensive economic ties between countries decreases the risk of violent conflict between them. However, despite considerable research on the “capitalist peace” at the macro or dyadic level, there has been less attention to its possible individual-level microfoundations or underpinnings. We argue that public perceptions about economic ties with other states and the costs of conflict should influence the expected constraints on the use of force for leaders. Actual high interdependence and potential economic costs may not suffice to create political constraints on the use of force if people are unaware of the degree of interdependence or fail to understand the benefits of trade and the likely economic costs of disruptive conflict. We examine the linkages between individual perceptions about economic interdependence and their views on conflict and peace through a survey experiment, where we ask respondents in Japan about approval for belligerent actions in a territorial dispute with China and varying information about economic ties. Our findings indicate that greater knowledge and information about economic interdependence affects attitudes about territorial disputes and increases support for peaceful solutions with China.     

China,the Interdependent Giant,and the Global Economic Crisis

The global economic crisis revealed China to be an interdependent giant, one whose ‘rise’ was undeniable but also one whose deepening participation in transnational production sharing and network trade made it highly susceptible to an external shock. China weathered the storm relatively well – avoiding a recession, in particular – not because it had ‘decoupled’ from the G7 economies but because its stimulus measures were unusually swift and powerful. One cost, however, has been a worsening domestic imbalance between investment and consumption that carries a heightened risk of asset price inflation, non-performing loans and destabilising levels of local government debt. Meanwhile, China’s ties to the world economy have not fundamentally changed since the crisis began. Despite stirring leader rhetoric and summit declarations, the BRICS have made only modest progress in meeting their goals. East Asia, North America and Europe remain China’s principal trade partners, and cross-border production chains connecting these regions remain the dominant mode of China’s incorporation into the world economy.     

Trade Interdependence and the Use of Force: Do Issues Matter?

In this project, we investigate the relationship between the use of military force and trade interdependence, suggesting that the influence of trade on militarized conflict varies based on the issue under dispute. For some issues, trade is likely to attenuate the chances that states escalate a dispute to the use of military force, while for others trade can intensify disputes so that military conflict is more likely. Specifically, we hypothesize that greater trade interdependence decreases the probability of military conflict over realpolitik issues like territory. On the other hand, greater trade interdependence increases the probability that states use military force when the issue under dispute concerns the regime, policies, and conditions in the target. To test our hypotheses, we employ new data on dyadic uses of force from the International Military Intervention data set that records the initiator’s reason(s) for using force against the target. The statistical tests support our hypotheses; trade decreases the use of force against a target for territorial and military/diplomatic reasons, which is consistent with arguments from the liberal paradigm. However, trade interdependence increases the use of force for humanitarian and economic reasons as well as to affect the regime or policy of the target. Thus, our study improves upon current research about the relationship between economic interdependence and foreign policy by specifying a conditional relationship based on the issues under contention.     

Democracy,human rights,and U.S.‐Africa trade

The nexus of economic and political relations is a central issue in international relations, and the influence of political liberalization upon trade ties lies at the center of much liberal theory. However, many facets of the empirical linkage between political liberalization—including democratization and the respect for human rights—and trade remain uninvestigated. Examining the case of U.S.‐Africa trade, this study considers two unexplored facets of these political determinants of trade: (1) the role of human rights conditions, and (2) the robustness of the relationship between democracy, human rights, and trade across a subset of vertical dyads. Using a gravity model to assess trade patterns, we find that neither democracy nor human rights conditions has a significant impact upon U.S. trade to Africa.     

日本与东盟的经济相互依赖分析——基于贸易与FDI的实证分析

日本与东盟的经贸合作在日本对外经济合作中占有优势地位。随着东盟地位和作用的提升，东盟和日本的经贸关系从依赖发展为相互依赖。近二十年来，在内外多重因素的影响下，日本与东盟的经济相互依赖关系发生了深刻变化。本文旨在通过发展态势、国别结构和评价三个方面对日本与东盟经济相互依赖关系的变化进行研究，对双边关系中的敏感性和脆弱性进行比较分析。     

俄罗斯与波罗矛盾、摩擦、协调的海三国：中的经贸关系

1990年立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚相继独立后,俄罗斯与三国间经贸关系的发展一直严重受制于相互间的政治关系。相互间经贸合作规模很小,合作形式单一,主要局限于商品贸易、过境运输等方面。近年来俄罗斯在发展与波罗的海三国经贸关系时,越来越强调经济与政治相结合的原则。俄罗斯与波罗的海三国经贸关系能否顺利发展,在很大程度上取决于俄罗斯与三国的政治关系走向。尽管如此,俄罗斯与波罗的海三国的经济合作对双方均具有重要意义。出于各自经济利益的需要,加之各种有利因素和不利因素的相互影响、互相制约,双方的经贸关系仍将在矛盾、摩擦和协调中向前发展。     

Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885–1992

Previous studies provide strong evidence for the Kantian theory of peace, but a satisfactory evaluation requires establishing the causal influence of the variables. Here we focus on the reciprocal relations between economic interdependence and interstate conflict, 1885–1992. Using distributed-lags analyses, we find that economically important trade does have a substantively important effect in reducing dyadic militarized disputes, even with extensive controls for the influence of past conflict. The benefit of interdependence is particularly great in the case of conflict involving military fatalities. Militarized disputes also cause a reduction in trade, as liberal theory predicts. Democracy and joint membership in intergovernmental organizations, too, have im-portant pacific benefits; but we find only limited support for the role of costly signals in establishing the liberal peace. We find no evidence that democratization increases the incidence of interstate disputes; and contrary to realists' expectations, allies are not less conflict prone than states that are not allied. Democracies and states that share membership in many international organizations have higher levels of trade, but allies do not when these influences are held constant.     

Trade,non-state actors and conflict: evidence from Greece and Turkey

Abstract

To what extent does growing trade lessen the probability of inter-state conflict? This paper addresses this question by using the curiously under-studied dyadic relationship between Greece and Turkey. Measuring trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) volumes as well as tourism flows and by use of elite interviews with key actors from both countries, we find that economic relations have become stronger and more diverse over time, non-state actors now featuring prominently in deepening interaction. Such developments, however, fail to translate into conflict resolution at the political level. To account for these findings, we use a New Liberal approach, arguing that this helps us explain both enhanced plurality in bilateral economic exchange and the incompatibility of the two countries' respective conceptions regarding legitimate national borders.     

Theorizing India–US–China strategic triangle

ABSTRACT

In this paper we build on Robert Jervis’ concept of strategic triangles, relations between three states where from the point of view of each state the others are pivotal for its security or foreign policy behavior in a given region. We argue that triangles are important in influencing state behavior in the areas of balance of power, deterrence, arms races and status competition, and consider how these dimensions might interact. In this context, this article examines the US–India–China triangle, while also addressing to a lesser extent how other related triangles interlink with it, taking into account how China’s rise and increasing economic interdependence impact these relations.     

关于开创中俄经贸合作新局面的思考

《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》的签订,为两国经贸关系的发展提供了法律保障。我国应当抓住这一有利时机,争取尽快打开与俄罗斯进行经贸合作的新局面。为此必须在各个领域全面推进的前提下采取突破性对策:扩大对俄罗斯的农副产品出口、农业劳务输出及加强农业技术设备和食品、饲料工业领域的合作;实现大型骨干企业的横向联合及加强中小企业的直接对接合作;共同开发油气资源及加强能源动力合作;联合研制高新技术项目并使其成果产业化;改革对俄罗斯出口商品结构的同时实行"大经贸战略",建立中俄自由贸易区;实现中俄经贸合作的战略升级。     

韩国与印尼的经济关系分析

印尼与韩国正式建交40年来,双边贸易连创新高,相互投资不断增长,其他方面的经济技术合作富有成效。尽管仍存在许多困难与障碍,但由于两国政府重视,加上互补性较强,印尼与韩国经济关系仍有广阔的发展前景。     

俄欧经贸合作的动因、特点及发展趋势

俄罗斯与欧盟开展与对方的经贸合作的目的不尽相同,然而十余年来,俄欧经贸合作全面迅速发展,成效十分显著,尤其在能源领域合作成果更是令世人瞩目。展望未来俄欧经贸合作的发展趋势,短期内仍将维持以能源合作为主的稳定发展态势,中长期有可能实现建立“统一经济空间”的战略目标。     

合作共赢的中美经贸关系

30年来,中美经贸与中国改革开放相伴而行,与中国经济同步强劲发展,从很低的起点成长为全球最大的双边经贸关系之一.展望未来,尽管两国经贸关系存在着不利与制约因素,但加强与深化合作攸关两国发展全局,在双方的共同努力下,中美经贸关系将得到新的提升.     

中国—东盟自由贸易区的影响分析——经济利益与战略关系

中国-东盟自由贸易区是双边关系发展到一定阶段的产物，但同时又表达了双方的某种超越性经济利益的诉求。自由贸易区的框架安排说明其是一个渐进性的综合安排，其妥协因素将会影响自由贸易区效果的迅速释放。总体来看，自由贸易区建成将会促进双边经济相互依赖，但其对于双边关系的促进作用或许将下降。     

面对21世纪中俄经贸合作问题的思考

叶利钦时期．中俄两国构建的战略协作伙伴关系．较多地体现在政治、军事和外交方面。经贸合作是个薄弱领域。普京执政后。对华关系的基本框架不会发生大的变化。但考虑到普京在摆脱经济危机和恢复俄罗斯强国地位方面。有着强烈的危机感和迫切感．因此、他的对华政策将具有务实性和转向以经济利益为中心的特点。近年来．两国经贸关系明显落后于政治关系。长期发展下去．有可能影响和削弱中俄政治关系的发展。进入２１世纪之际。中俄加强经贸合作．不仅有利于中国经济实现可持续增长和俄经济的复苏、而且还可以进一步巩固和发展两国的政治关系。当前。为把中俄经贸合作推上一个新的高度,应采取一些新的思路和对策：（一）要统一认识．即认识到中俄经贸关系落后于政治关系是客观存在的事实。有鉴于此．才需要我们将两国经贸合作推向一个新水平;（二）要有一个发展双边经贸合作的长期战略规划;（三）要上大项目：（四）加强对俄高科技合作．如在哈尔滨市与俄共建“中俄高新技术合作中心”; （五）大力研究与认真落实省、州合作、鼓励并推动地方政府发展区域合作。如吸引俄资本与技术参与我国西部大开发．尤其应将西伯利亚与远东地区作为区域合作的重点。特别应指出的是：没有我方与俄远东地区融洽的政治     

Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.     

东北亚国家经贸合作：新形势新发展

东北亚各国政治经济形势和对外政策已经发生并正在发生一些有利于区内经贸合作的变化我国“十五”时期对外开放将进入新阶段。尤其要加强与东北亚国家的经贸合作；俄罗斯与东北亚国家外交关系有了较大发展，并把扩大经贸合作提上了议事日程；朝鲜将实施对外开放政策和进一步与韩国实现和解；蒙古新政府将继续实施“多支点”外交政策，并首先加强与东北亚国家的经济联系；日本在与东南亚国家发展经济合作的同时将扩大与东北亚国家的经贸合作。     

印度一欧盟贸易关系发展现状及其发展态势

欧盟作为世界上最大的经济体,为印度的经济发展提供了广阔的市场及发展空间,印度很重视发展与欧盟的关系,尤其是经济关系;而印度作为一个发展潜力极大的发展中国家,自然资源、人力资源极为丰富,欧盟同样需要进一步加强与印度的贸易关系。目前双方的贸易关系进展平稳,但也存在不可避免的挑战,特别是欧盟东扩后,双边贸易关系的前景面临着更多的变数。     

Nationalist Sources of International Economic Integration

Most scholars of international relations and nationalism presume that nationalist ideology acts uniformly to hinder international economic integration, globalization, and free trade. This article challenges the conventional wisdom by developing an analytical framework of the incentives majority and minority nationalists face in the realm of foreign economic relations. Defining nationalism as the promotion of the autonomy, unity, and identity of the nation, it argues that nationalists have strong possible motivations both for and against close economic ties with foreign nations and states. As a result, oftentimes nationalists must make trade-offs among their goals of autonomy, unity, and identity when developing foreign economic policy preferences. Case studies of nationalist organizations in Quebec, India, and Ukraine that favor a high degree of international economic integration are presented to show the usefulness of the analytical framework.     

新条件下的中俄经贸合作

中俄两国的经济具有很强的互补性,但没有充分发挥出来,使得两国的经贸合作滞后于两国的政治关系。当前,国内国际的一些形势为两国大力发展经贸合作提供了机遇,两国应抓住有利时机,认真研究对策,积极推动两国的经贸发展。